cheezyWXguy wrote:Is Humberto being underestimated because of its small size, or is it that the ring of deepest convection isn’t thick enough yet for a higher estimate?
Or because they don’t have the budget to run recon like they used to?
NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion
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MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
Or because they don’t have the budget to run recon like they used to?
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Emily '87, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20, Teddy '20, Fiona '22, Lee '23, Ernesto '24, Humberto/Imelda '25
Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
I don’t get it. They said that Humberto has improved…yet decide to keep it at 125 kt? The definition of its eye and improvement this morning makes it an obvious 130-140 kt.
Welcome back Hurricane Sam.
Or maybe Gilma. This feels like the handling of an EPac major.
Welcome back Hurricane Sam.
Or maybe Gilma. This feels like the handling of an EPac major.
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cycloneye
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
Spectacular view.
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
Yeah no way that’s just 125 kt lol.
It has a complete thick W ring too. Should be a T7.0.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:
Yeah no way that’s just 125 kt lol.
It has a complete thick W ring too. Should be a T7.0.
Agree magnificent looking open ocean storm. Compact and cold tops, very reminiscent of those west tracking epac smaller storms. Could make case 130kts+.
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Hurricane2022
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
USTropics bro there is any other untasked flight coming to this? 
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
There are many Sams, Kirks but there is only 1 Lorenzo.
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
Textbook definition of a borderline cat 5 in my opinion. How I wish 09L didn't exist so that we could have recon in this incredible system right now. 
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/6K0beT8.png
There are many Sams, Kirks but there is only 1 Lorenzo.
How on Earth did Lorenzo get a T7.0 on ADT but not this lol
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/6K0beT8.png
There are many Sams, Kirks but there is only 1 Lorenzo.
How on Earth did Lorenzo get a T7.0 on ADT but not this lol
Lorenzo had a deeper and thicker CDO. Dvorak has a known weak point in this part of the Atlantic due to tropopause heights keeping CDO temps relatively warm. Eye temp should be factored more heavily imo.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
Now that's a thick enough W ring, if it persists for another hour it should be a T7.0 fix at 18z.
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
There’s a very real chance this could be rivaling Erin’s peak right now.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:
There’s a very real chance this could be rivaling Erin’s peak right now.
Was thinking the same. I went back and looked at a saved loop I have from erin at peak and they same very comparable in quality of organization, albeit erin’s eye was much smaller proportionally.
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HurricaneAndre2008
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
I think it's at least 150mph.
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Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/2ataUWk.png
SAR from 10z.
Impressive given that was taken 7 hours ago and there have been progressive improvements in appearance since then.
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CrazyC83
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
What is the eye temperature? That can help provide a gauge. Dorian had a similar appearance but an incredible eye temperature.
I'd have to guess we have a cat 5 right now. I'd go 140 kt / 924 mb.
I'd have to guess we have a cat 5 right now. I'd go 140 kt / 924 mb.
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Re: NATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion
Platform: RCM-2
Acquisition Date: 2025-09-27 09:58:12 UTC
Storm Name: AL082025 / HUMBERTO
Storm ID: AL08
Storm Center Longitude: -59.415
Storm Center Latitude: 22.402
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 30.910
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 131.12
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 132.42
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 128.30
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 134.92
RMax (nmi): 5.00 - 7.00
Acquisition Date: 2025-09-27 09:58:12 UTC
Storm Name: AL082025 / HUMBERTO
Storm ID: AL08
Storm Center Longitude: -59.415
Storm Center Latitude: 22.402
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 30.910
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 131.12
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 132.42
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 128.30
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 134.92
RMax (nmi): 5.00 - 7.00
Here's the SAR image. It's really rare for SAR to capture 130kt+ winds in the Atlantic, some of the only ones I can recall of the top of my head are Maria and—ironically—Sam (in fact I think Sam has the highest winds recorded by SAR in the Atlantic which is really funny).
Last edited by Travorum on Sat Sep 27, 2025 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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