NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

What is the eye temperature? That can help provide a gauge. Dorian had a similar appearance but an incredible eye temperature.

I'd have to guess we have a cat 5 right now. I'd go 140 kt / 924 mb.

20.8C from GOES. A sentinel pass at 14z measured 24.3C

[tolakram]

Beautiful storm, classic buzzsaw

[Travorum]

What is the eye temperature? That can help provide a gauge. Dorian had a similar appearance but an incredible eye temperature.

I'd have to guess we have a cat 5 right now. I'd go 140 kt / 924 mb.

From goes imagery on cyclonicwx the eye temp has been hovering around 20/21C for the past several hours.

[zzzh]

What is the eye temperature? That can help provide a gauge. Dorian had a similar appearance but an incredible eye temperature.

I'd have to guess we have a cat 5 right now. I'd go 140 kt / 924 mb.

Sentinel 3B captured an eye temp of 24.3 at 14:00z (note that the angle was not the best).

[weeniepatrol]

With an eye temperature over 20 C, 125 kt is a ridiculous estimate. This is not critique of NHC but rather is critique of Dvorak. We've seen countless examples that it underrates major hurricanes. Too much emphasis on cloud top temperatures. The tropopause in the Atlantic is shallower. You're not going to nor are supposed to GET colder cloud tops. We are not the western Pacific. Eye temperature seems to be much more important. I'm not sure there's ever been an instance of a hurricane with a 20 C eye that wasn't stronger than 125 kt before? lol

Laura 2020 is the weakest 20 C eye hurricane I can think of and it was still 130 kt

[aspen]

With an eye temperature over 20 C, 125 kt is a ridiculous estimate. This is not critique of NHC but rather is critique of Dvorak. We've seen countless examples that it underrates major hurricanes. Too much emphasis on cloud top temperatures. The tropopause in the Atlantic is shallower. You're not going to nor are supposed to GET colder cloud tops. We are not the western Pacific. Eye temperature seems to be much more important. I'm not sure there's ever been an instance of a hurricane with a 20 C eye that wasn't stronger than 125 kt before? lol

Laura 2020 is the weakest 20 C eye hurricane I can think of and it was still 130 kt

Agreed, Dvorak absolutely needs to start giving more weight to eye temperature. Eye shape and overall CDO structure need to be given attention in the model too. They’re something us human forecasters can easily pick out as indicative of an upper-echelon TC, but I’m not aware of how much they’re factored into ADT. Something like Humberto with a sharply defined >20C eye within a near-circular W-ring should be given more weight in ADT than deeper but less even convection around a less symmetrical eye like Lorenzo.

This isn’t just an Atlantic problem. The Pacific has had several offenders since 2020, such as Douglas, Darby, Dora, Gilma, and others. Gilma especially was really bad, with all three peaks being 10-20 kt underestimated due to bad luck with ADT.

[bob rulz]

So is there just no chance of getting recon into this storm?

I know there has been recons into multiple storms at the same time in the past...has the budget for recon diminished so much they can't spare 1 plane for Humberto?

[MarioProtVI]

I’m not expecting them to go C5 operationally nor in TCR (see Sam and Jose), mostly because it’s a guarantee ADT will trip up and remain T6.5 while TAFB either is 6.8 or 7.0, with a split down the middle for a 135 kt estimate.

[weeniepatrol]

So is there just no chance of getting recon into this storm?

I know there has been recons into multiple storms at the same time in the past...has the budget for recon diminished so much they can't spare 1 plane for Humberto?

Recon is scheduled for tomorrow evening.

[Teban54]

The last few frames seem to show some continued improvement in CDO, even if minor.

[weeniepatrol]

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/xofJfdm.png

There is also this, but my goodness what a core

https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bw3zB.png

[aspen]

So is there just no chance of getting recon into this storm?

I know there has been recons into multiple storms at the same time in the past...has the budget for recon diminished so much they can't spare 1 plane for Humberto?

Recon is scheduled…but not until Monday. So we won’t get a plane in until long after Humberto’s likely Cat 5 peak.

I’m not sure how much of the lack of Humberto recon has to do with budget issues, or the NHC trying to figure out a recon schedule for the highly uncertain TD9. Either way, I agree that it seems feasible for them to have been able to send something into Humberto without interfering with TD9 coverage.

[cycloneye]

Breaking news= Two planes will go to Humberto on Sunday afternoon/evening and on Monday morning

Hurricane2022, there is the answer to your question.

HURRICANE HUMBERTO

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 78
A. 29/0000Z A. 29/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0108A HUMBERTO B. AFXXX 0208A HUMBERTO
C. 28/2100Z C. 29/0915Z
D. 25.5N 65.3W D. 27.1N 66.8W
E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0300Z E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1500Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

[StormWeather]

Breaking news= Two planes will go to Humberto on Sunday afternoon/evening and on Monday morning

Hurricane2022, there is the answer to your question.

HURRICANE HUMBERTO

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 78
A. 29/0000Z A. 29/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0108A HUMBERTO B. AFXXX 0208A HUMBERTO
C. 28/2100Z C. 29/0915Z
D. 25.5N 65.3W D. 27.1N 66.8W
E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0300Z E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1500Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

Thank the lord!! I didn’t want another Cat 5 debate out of this

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/1UHyuPz.png

So is there just no chance of getting recon into this storm?

I know there has been recons into multiple storms at the same time in the past...has the budget for recon diminished so much they can't spare 1 plane for Humberto?

Recon is scheduled for tomorrow evening.

Would go 140kts with that MW presentation. That's extremely impressive.

Humberto seems to be stuck at T6.5 and inner dynamics could stop this from reaching a T7.0.

[bob rulz]

Well I guess there's my answer lol

[Hurricane2022]

Breaking news= Two planes will go to Humberto on Sunday afternoon/evening and on Monday morning

Hurricane2022, there is the answer to your question.

HURRICANE HUMBERTO

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 78
A. 29/0000Z A. 29/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0108A HUMBERTO B. AFXXX 0208A HUMBERTO
C. 28/2100Z C. 29/0915Z
D. 25.5N 65.3W D. 27.1N 66.8W
E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0300Z E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1500Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

I was looking for a mission THIS afternoon/evening but anyway it's better than nothing

[cycloneye]

AL, 08, 2025092718, , BEST, 0, 228N, 608W, 135, 926, HU

[Pelicane]

CDO keeps getting cooler, hard to imagine this isn't at or near C5 atm.