NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[zhukm29]

[Hurricane2022]

AL, 08, 2025092718, , BEST, 0, 228N, 608W, 135, 926, HU

Yeah for sure this is Sam 2.0. I'm "sure" it's around 140 - 145 kt now.

[aspen]

AL, 08, 2025092718, , BEST, 0, 228N, 608W, 135, 926, HU

Fingers crossed they go 5 kt higher for the official advisory like they did several times Thursday and Friday. Although they tend to do that earlier in a system’s life or during initial RI bursts.

[Beef Stew]

Wouldn’t be surprised if this is a 145+ kt storm right now. I’d say the satellite presentation looks even more impressive than Erin at her peak, and I don’t recall those eye temps being nearly this high, although I don’t remember for sure. Visually, it reminds me a lot of Irma. Operationally, it reminds me of Sam.

[WaveBreaking]

Ngl I think Humberto is prettier than Erin was at its peak.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

AL, 08, 2025092718, , BEST, 0, 228N, 608W, 135, 926, HU

I think that's a fake fix.

[Sciencerocks]

[zhukm29]

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TXNT23 KNES 271822
TCSNTL

A. 08L (HUMBERTO)

B. 27/1800Z

C. 22.7N

D. 60.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...MWG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN A DT
OF 6.5. THE MET IS 6.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 24 HOUR TREND. THE
PT IS 6.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MONAGHAN

[Travorum]

T6.5 fix from SAB, somehow that W ring wasn't thick enough.

TXNT23 KNES 271822
TCSNTL

A. 08L (HUMBERTO)

B. 27/1800Z

C. 22.7N

D. 60.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...MWG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN A DT
OF 6.5. THE MET IS 6.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 24 HOUR TREND. THE
PT IS 6.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MONAGHAN

[CrazyC83]

It looks T7.0 to me, especially with a hint of CMG and a very warm eye. If the CMG can wrap around, that would be T7.5.

I'd probably even consider 145 kt (if they went there, the pressure would likely be about 918 mb).

[sasha_B]

Eye temp is still over 20°C and there are no signs of deterioration / another EWRC at this point. It's possible that if the upward trend in objective estimates holds for a couple more hours, they'll have what they need to make the call at 21z. As a layperson, this seems at the very least close to Erin's presentation at her peak intensity, but I suppose it makes sense to be a little more conservative in the absence of recon data.

[Iceresistance]

AL, 08, 2025092718, , BEST, 0, 228N, 608W, 135, 926, HU

I think that's a fake fix.

The real fix just came in

08L HUMBERTO 250927 1800 22.7N 60.7W ATL 135 929

[CrazyC83]

Eye temp is still over 20°C and there are no signs of deterioration / another EWRC at this point. It's possible that if the upward trend in objective estimates holds for a couple more hours, they'll have what they need to make the call at 21z. As a layperson, this seems at the very least close to Erin's presentation at her peak intensity, but I suppose it makes sense to be a little more conservative in the absence of recon data.

It's very rare for NHC to upgrade to a cat 5 without Recon. I know they famously did for Lorenzo in 2019, but before then Isabel in 2003 was the last time they did.

[Kingarabian]

T6.5 fix from SAB, somehow that W ring wasn't thick enough.

TXNT23 KNES 271822
TCSNTL

A. 08L (HUMBERTO)

B. 27/1800Z

C. 22.7N

D. 60.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...MWG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN A DT
OF 6.5. THE MET IS 6.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 24 HOUR TREND. THE
PT IS 6.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MONAGHAN

Its tough in these situations because the thickness on the W ring has been fluctuating. A CMG ring can help it get a 7.0.

But IMO a T6.5 and a perfect microwave pass means this is a Cat.5.

[sasha_B]

An override to *increase* the central pressure estimate seems rather odd in this case. Perhaps the next full advisory will elaborate further on the factors that might be holding Humberto back.

[Travorum]

Eye temp is still over 20°C and there are no signs of deterioration / another EWRC at this point. It's possible that if the upward trend in objective estimates holds for a couple more hours, they'll have what they need to make the call at 21z. As a layperson, this seems at the very least close to Erin's presentation at her peak intensity, but I suppose it makes sense to be a little more conservative in the absence of recon data.

It's very rare for NHC to upgrade to a cat 5 without Recon. I know they famously did for Lorenzo in 2019, but before then Isabel in 2003 was the last time they did.

And Lorenzo had a research mission in it that IIRC verified that earlier Dvorak estimates matched the ground truth.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

AL, 08, 2025092718, , BEST, 0, 227N, 607W, 135, 929, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1011, 170, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025

[zhukm29]

Insane microwave images for Humberto:

[StormWeather]

The Raw T# numbers are almost at Category 5 level

Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2025 Time : 181019 UTC
Lat : 22:40:48 N Lon : 60:43:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 933.3mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +19.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : EYE