NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[wxman57]

Afternoon popups already firing across Florida.
Will reduce shear ahead of the storm.

Gcane do you see 9 moving more west towards S Florida than the forecast shows?

I see no indication of a track farther west toward Florida. It's running into the SSW flow aloft now.

[Coolcruiseman]

I am officially in a tropical storm watch here in Vero Beach, FL

I’m Vero beach myself. Been watching this as these systems are unpredictable.

Suspected I’d be under a watch here in Melbourne at some point with unpredictability and all the factors in play with this one.

[GCANE]

Afternoon popups already firing across Florida.
Will reduce shear ahead of the storm.

Gcane do you see 9 moving more west towards S Florida than the forecast shows?

Maybe 50/50

Watching that front closely in the GOM, and somewhat Humberto as well.
This will be a last minute thing if it makes landfall.
Are you in Florida?

[GCANE]

AF303 is running at 850mb altitude.
Hard time fixing a center.
Maybe TD9 is going more west than thought.

[skillz305]

Afternoon popups already firing across Florida.
Will reduce shear ahead of the storm.

Gcane do you see 9 moving more west towards S Florida than the forecast shows?

Maybe 50/50

Watching that front closely in the GOM, and somewhat Humberto as well.
This will be a last minute thing if it makes landfall.
Are you in Florida?

Yes, us on east coast Florida, south and Central are glued to this system. We know how the uncertainty goes. We also like to ask questions to individuals, which do great work on here, their expert opinions on stuff we can’t grasp. We are all on different levels of knowledge. Thanks for all your info you put out. You actually gave us the heads up on tornadic activity from Hurricane Milton last year (I’m not too far from the devastating tornados that landed in central Florida)

[GCANE]

Just lit up a 7" cigar.
Going to watching and scratching my head for sometime.

[floridasun]

storm tracker issue by nhc have it se of Andros island getting close south of island if do mean moving wnw to west we see what hurricane hunter show

[GCANE]

Gcane do you see 9 moving more west towards S Florida than the forecast shows?

Maybe 50/50

Watching that front closely in the GOM, and somewhat Humberto as well.
This will be a last minute thing if it makes landfall.
Are you in Florida?

Yes, us on east coast Florida, south and Central are glued to this system. We know how the uncertainty goes. We also like to ask questions to individuals, which do great work on here, their expert opinions on stuff we can’t grasp. We are all on different levels of knowledge. Thanks for all your info you put out. You actually gave us the heads up on tornadic activity from Hurricane Milton last year (I’m not too far from the devastating tornados that landed in central Florida)

Stay safe my friend.
I'll keep the posts going.
My wife is in Europe and I got plenty of cigars.
Pizza is a few minutes away.

[GCANE]

4500 CAPE in the Bahamas
5500 CAPE over the Gulf Stream

[floridasun]

https://www.polarwx.com/tropical/data/r ... /track.png this show nhc have td 9 at

[GCANE]

That faint tail in the GOM is digging deeper,
Not sure what to make of the big PV Streamer west of Humberto

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

[floridasun]

That faint tail in the GOM is digging deeper,
Not sure what to make of the big PV Streamer west of Humberto

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

what that old front over florida suppose pull td9 out to sea?

[tolakram]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=aEt566CENwI

[GCANE]

That faint tail in the GOM is digging deeper,
Not sure what to make of the big PV Streamer west of Humberto

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

what that old front over florida suppose pull td9 out to sea?

Its history.
Main driver is the trof in the GoM and somewhat Humberto

[GCANE]

Recon is finding a really pathetic closed low, if in fact there is one.
No really significant hot towers to light this,
This going to keep moving slowly along the coast of Cuba
Archer hasn't come up yet to compare against the forecast track.
When that comes up, we'll see where we are at.

[GCANE]

That trof is digging way deeper into the BoC and air is drying out more.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[TomballEd]

AF303 is running at 850mb altitude.
Hard time fixing a center.
Maybe TD9 is going more west than thought.

A lot of this is absorbed knowledge from the board and the Cowan videos. The delay turning N is increasing the odds Humberto gets past its latitude and as the much stronger system will increase the odds of being slung out to see. Ensembles seem to be showing this, I guesstimated 85% OTS. I think the watch is an abundance of caution and since the lack of a defined center reduces predictability, I have no issues. Normally farther W increases the risk of a landfall but in this case it increases the chance of being hooked. I do think EC Florida now has a better chance, even if slight, of TS conditions on the beaches than the Carolinas. When I say that, I am reminded of the old S2K boilerplate no longer required, but good to remember, I'm an amateur and do what the professionals tell you to do. Better safe than sorry.

Imgur isn't working for me, I may come edit a satellite loop of how disorganized the TD is.

[Nimbus]

Watch Levi's video he explained the different model scenarios very well.
If dry air doesn't undercut the circulation the Fujiwara effect will determine the stall outcome.

[ObsessedMiami]

Any chance TS watches will be moved father south along the SE Florida coast?