NATL: IMELDA - Models

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MassachusettsWx/status/1972083930347229242

[OuterBanker]

Breathing a sigh of relief most of the day because of all of the models taking it out to sea.

But there sits the Euro with the stall and west into NC.

If it was the Navgem I would totally ignore (does the Navy actually base deployment on that model?)

But, it's the Euro. Can't really ignore the Euro.

18z does have the west movement into Wilmington Cape Lookout area like the 12z.

[BobHarlem]

The 0z icon takes the hard right a little further south, around 29.4N (latitude of Daytona Beach), and about the same distance away from Florida as the 18z.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done.

 Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL. 


0Z UKMET

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 76.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2025 0 22.0N 76.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 28.09.2025 12 23.2N 76.9W 1003 35
0000UTC 29.09.2025 24 24.6N 76.7W 1000 32
1200UTC 29.09.2025 36 26.7N 77.1W 998 43
0000UTC 30.09.2025 48 28.5N 77.4W 994 42
1200UTC 30.09.2025 60 29.2N 77.3W 991 38
0000UTC 01.10.2025 72 29.0N 75.9W 989 41
1200UTC 01.10.2025 84 29.7N 73.4W 987 47
0000UTC 02.10.2025 96 30.3N 69.6W 985 57
1200UTC 02.10.2025 108 31.6N 64.5W 984 54
0000UTC 03.10.2025 120 33.5N 59.8W 986 67
1200UTC 03.10.2025 132 34.8N 57.0W 992 48
0000UTC 04.10.2025 144 36.3N 56.0W 995 43
1200UTC 04.10.2025 156 37.7N 54.4W 999 39
0000UTC 05.10.2025 168 41.4N 49.5W 999 41

Edit: 0Z Euro stays away from the US
Now every major 0Z op stays away.

Unlike prior two runs, the 0Z Euro stays away from US.

Also, unlike some hurricane model runs yesterday that curved back into SC/GA, the 0Z runs all stayed offshore that area.

[cycloneye]

06z ICON and GFS after moving parallel to the east coast of Florida, go out to sea.

[BobHarlem]

Overnight all the models, including the hurricane models, now take it out to sea. NHC track is pretty good, although it may make the cut to the east too far north, most models cut right around the latitude of Daytona Beach. Bermuda may have to watch but it'll probably be partially extratropical by then. Florida likely won't see much except for along the east coast in the watch area since the left side is fairly dry, but there's still a few bands that may make it. Also some of the rain still may get into the Carolinas, but isn't directly associated with the core. Icon is further east, which means even less impact for Florida.

[Kazmit]

Amazing how spot on the ICON has been with this one. It’s been persistent in this outcome the whole week despite all other models showing a US landfall at one point. I’m holding it in high regard this season, much more so than the GFS.

[CycloysisNegative]

Amazing how spot on the ICON has been with this one. It’s been persistent in this outcome the whole week despite all other models showing a US landfall at one point. I’m holding it in high regard this season, much more so than the GFS.

Dating back to Irma, I think there are more than enough examples to point to that show if the UK or ICON are significantly different to the rest of the models, any “consensus” should be challenged at the very least. There is something about them, they seem to sniff certain solutions out ahead of the rest. There has obviously been flops in there, but I never trust a long term outcome if one of those models isn’t on board. I always wait until they’ve aligned, or the other models align (I like to use the term align over cave haha).

Kudos to both of those models.

[TomballEd]

Interesting new GFS so far. It looks like Imelda as it merges with the frontal trough absorbs the vorticity from the already merged Humberto.

[cycloneye]

Wow. On 18z GFS, Imelda hangs with twists and turns on the entire run thru day 16.

[AJC3]

Wow. On 18z GFS, Imelda hangs with twists and turns on the entire run thru day 16.

https://i.imgur.com/kcxhF3T.gif

I imagine that a XT cyclone hitting the Azores from the NE is pretty uncommon, albeit not unprecedented.

I can't recall ever seeing one modeled before, however, it really isn't something I actually look for in the models.

[mitchell]

Wow. On 18z GFS, Imelda hangs with twists and turns on the entire run thru day 16.

I imagine that a XT cyclone hitting the Azores from the NE is pretty uncommon, albeit not unprecedented.

I can't recall ever seeing one modeled before, however, it really isn't something I actually look for in the models.

and ends up drifting SW all the way to around 29 N, 50 W by mid October. Gotta love that....

[Woofde]

Wow. On 18z GFS, Imelda hangs with twists and turns on the entire run thru day 16.

Would it still retain the same name if it was to regain tropical characteristics after all that time? What a wild run.

[KirbyDude25]

Wow. On 18z GFS, Imelda hangs with twists and turns on the entire run thru day 16.

https://i.imgur.com/kcxhF3T.gif

Would it still retain the same name if it was to regain tropical characteristics after all that time? What a wild run.

If it remains identifiable, no matter the time taken to regenerate, I believe it would keep its name (as Gert did in 2023 when it regenerated after spending 9 days as a remnant low). I strongly doubt this run will become reality (especially given the fantasy-land time ranges involved), but if it did, I think it would still be considered the same system and have the same name.

[LarryWx]

The ICON and UKMET were absolutely stellar in that neither model had even one run hitting the US coast or even stalling at the coast. None ever got closer than 100 miles from the US. I made sure to post every UKMET with a TC as well as any Icon that nobody else posted.

All of the UKMET runs 12Z of 9/23 through 0Z 9/28 run (except 0Z of 9/24, which had no TC) in textual form can be seen ITT. The Icons going back to 0Z on 9/26 are still on Tropical Tidbits:

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/[/URL]


ICON: The only Icon that I don’t know with 100% certainty is the 18Z of 9/24 because it goes out only 120 and is then moving very slowly NW toward C FL at ~79.0W. But even it is slowing down 100 miles offshore FL, the closest of any ICON to the US, and quite possibly about to make the hook OTS.

UKMET: The two 9/25 runs move to 78.3W. Then the 9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z move to 78.5W, the furthest W runs. All others’ furthest W were 77.1-77.4W. The closest to the US of any UKMET run was 115 miles E of Ft. Lauderdale (0Z 9/25 run).


Furthest W of each UKMET run

9/23 12Z: 77.1W

9/24 0Z: no TC

9/24 12Z: 77.2W

9/25 0Z/12Z: 78.3W

9/26 0Z: 77.3W

9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z: 78.5W

9/27 12Z: 77.3W

9/28 0Z: 77.4W

Whereas the UK’s record on the tracks was the best of all models (even better than the Icon) it was the latest on first having it as an actual TC (12Z 9/23) and also it didn’t have it on the 0Z 9/24. So, it was too genesis shy very early on, which is not uncommon with it. That’s why I pay extra attention when the UKMET first has a TC.

Aside: The UKMET (#1) and ICON (#2) were also by far the best with Ian (‘22).
————

Honorable mention for JMA, which had only one run hit the US (NC). But like the UKMET, it was a bit shy early on in showing a TC.

Despite its pretty poor record on the track along with Euro and CMC, an honorable mention is due for the GFS for showing Imelda as far back as one 9/19 run, way earlier than any other model, even though it lost it for a couple of days after that run.

* Imelda’s actual furthest W was 77.3W.