NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Surprised this thing is still south of Nassau. Despite barely being a tropical cyclone, I'd have thought it would be at least at Ft. Lauderdale's latitude.

[GCANE]

Turning very apparent of visible satellite now.
Forecast track updated from last fix.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1972262512247837014

[GCANE]

Eye Drop
23.2N 77.5W
1003mb

Slightly west of the latest forecast track

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 8-1330.png

[Teban54]

I'm surprised that 9 hasn't reached TS strength yet. There does seem to be significant central convection today, so hopefully that will do the trick.

[emeraldislenc]

Just heard the funniest comment on the weather channel by the host" it is finally getting more concentrated center and that is a "good thing" guess they need a storm for their ratings!

[GCANE]

Looks like Humberto is in the middle of an EWRC.
Let's see what that does to TD9's forecast track late today.

[GCANE]

Looks like the PV Streamer just west of TD9 is quickly eroding.
As a result, TD9 is quickly spinning up now.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

[REDHurricane]

Just heard the funniest comment on the weather channel by the host" it is finally getting more concentrated center and that is a "good thing" guess they need a storm for their ratings!

Well it is a "good thing" in that having a defined LLC will significantly help the models with making an accurate forecast for the next several days, so I'm guessing that's probably what they meant

[Buck]

Convective burst near/over the center. This looks to be getting its act together now. I wonder if they’ll pull the TS trigger at 11.

[eastcoastFL]

TD 9 is starting to look like a tropical storm. This thing could amp up quicker than forecast now. It's a good thing it should start moving towards the east in a few days

[Sciencerocks]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Forecast in Bermuda right now is tropical storm winds from Humberto on Tuesday/Wednesday, brief reprieve Wednesday night, then hurricane on Thursday/Friday. Going to be an unusual week!

[ConvergenceZone]

Just heard the funniest comment on the weather channel by the host" it is finally getting more concentrated center and that is a "good thing" guess they need a storm for their ratings!

They just mean that "it's a good thing" if the storm ever wants to ever get it's act together and strengthen. I heard the same thing and that's how I took it. I've said the same thing many times before when I see a storm that's doesn't seem to be strengthening.

[eastcoastFL]

Just heard the funniest comment on the weather channel by the host" it is finally getting more concentrated center and that is a "good thing" guess they need a storm for their ratings!

They just mean that "it's a good thing" if the storm ever wants to ever get it's act together and strengthen. I heard the same thing and that's how I took it. I've said the same thing many times before when I see a storm that's doesn't seem to be strengthening.

I think it also ups the chances that it will move away from the US Coast.

[ronjon]

Looks like the center motoring north over Andros Island. It's getting closer to FL east coast. May still be some squally weather on the beaches.

[TomballEd]

I'm wondering if 9L being so weak increases the chance it comes back. Humberto will still have a low level pull stalling the TD but a very weak system may not be affected by the weakness Humberto will create. It would have a better chance of getting stuck under the ridge forecast to build in. If it does eventually strengthen.


GFS ensembles see only a few members that stall so I am up to 90% confidence the US won't see significant weather, just breezes, maybe showers, high surf. Bermuda may have issues with 9. The silver lining there is Bermuda is fairly affluent (4th highest GDP in the world) and most of the homes are well built and I'm starting to doubt 9 will ever be a major.

[cycloneye]

We can say hello to Imelda.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 43kt at 17:34z

[wxman57]

Nine/Imelda is not going to significantly impact the U.S. The slower forward speed guarantees no impact. One thing the slower forward speed no could do is to result in a stall near or east of Bermuda Wed/Thu until the next cold front comes along and carries it off to the northeast. Not my forecast now, but it's possible it could separate from Humberto and be stuck for a while. Even if it did, it would not track into the US Coast. I think the NHC is going to upgrade it to Imelda this afternoon.

[StormWeather]

Nine/Imelda is not going to significantly impact the U.S. The slower forward speed guarantees no impact. One thing the slower forward speed no could do is to result in a stall near or east of Bermuda Wed/Thu until the next cold front comes along and carries it off to the northeast. Not my forecast now, but it's possible it could separate from Humberto and be stuck for a while. Even if it did, it would not track into the US Coast. I think the NHC is going to upgrade it to Imelda this afternoon.

Already has put out a thing upgrading it to Tropical Storm Imelda.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281749
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES