NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 08, 2025093000, , BEST, 0, 295N, 684W, 105, 958, HU,

[cycloneye]

It has been very fast the weakening.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The LLC is decoupling from the convection. I had thought it was stalling, then I saw the LLC moving right along while the convection is staying put due to the shear. I don't even think this will be a major come 11pm

[emeraldislenc]

Looks like it is weakening fast.

[cycloneye]

From the 11 PM discussion. The weakening is fast that in less than 2 days it will turn extratropical.

Continued steady weakening is expected as northwesterly vertical
wind shear and intrusions of dry air persist over the next day or
two. By late Wednesday, Humberto is expected to merge with a mid-
to upper-level trough, and that should cause the system to develop
frontal features and complete extratropical transition.

[zhukm29]

A remarkable fall from grace:

[Fancy1002]

What the heck happened to Humberto, I sleep for one day and he completely falls apart.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

First proper rain band coming over the island now.

[kevin]

Latest dropsonde supports a pressure of 977 - 978 mb and the 77 kt peak FL ony supports a current wind speed of 70 kt. Remarkable weakening over the last 24 hours.

[Teban54]

I thought Erin's weakening past its brief peak and long struggle as a large sprawling Cat 1-2 was dramatic...

Edit: If Imelda didn't exist at all, we would probably have been looking at a healthy MH that cleanly completed its EWRC, intensifying in a low-shear environment towards its second peak (which global models had repeatedly shown as Humberto makes the turn east).

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Tremendous blow-up northeast of center. Dying gasp or signs of life?

[TallyTracker]

I thought Erin's weakening past its brief peak and long struggle as a large sprawling Cat 1-2 was dramatic...

Edit: If Imelda didn't exist at all, we would probably have been looking at a healthy MH that cleanly completed its EWRC, intensifying in a low-shear environment towards its second peak (which global models had repeatedly shown as Humberto makes the turn east).

https://i.imgur.com/CYF4VUi.gif

That is a stunning decline to an exposed LLC with hurricane force winds! I expect Humberto will be a TS by the 5 pm advisory.

[Sciencerocks]

[AnnularCane]

He keeps trying hard to keep himself covered.

[Jelmergraaff]

So interestingly, while as per the NHC Humberto itself "is forecast to elongate along a frontal boundary extending southwestward toward Imelda and lose its closed circulation", on the northeastern side of this elongated boundary, a new depression is expected to form. Under influence of a very strong jet stream, this low-pressure system could intensify quickly towards Western Europe. Latest ECMWF (12z) has gusts of up to 127 mph for Ireland, while ICON (12z) is showing 105 mph gusts over the North Sea.

[Sciencerocks]

[emeraldislenc]

5 houses fell into ocean on Hatteras Island today at high tide. Highway 12 is closed on Ocracoke Island. Will
Probably be closed until Thursday afternoon.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Spectacular images when it was cat 5. Look at that microwave image that shows the closed eyewall.