NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Woofde]

Well, it seems the OBX made the national news again tonight. Another condemned five homes washed out to sea today on Hatteras Island.

Wind and waves pounding the shore again. 32 kt winds now at Jennetts pier. Wind advisories gusts to 45 through tomorrow.

Bermuda will have a double strike, yet we probably won’t hear of any real damage.

The reason is simple. Here we build multi-million dollar homes out of sticks.

There they are made of bricks.

The big bad wolf lives just up the street.

Geology plays a large part in that too. A brick house on a barrier island won't hold up when the land beneath it erodes away.

[emeraldislenc]

The terrain of Bermuda is much different than the OBX. I think that point has to be made.

[OuterBanker]

The terrain of Bermuda is much different than the OBX. I think that point has to be made.

It does. There were some hotels here long ago that were made of bricks. They too would wash under. But, they wouldn't wash away.

We are a sand bar. They are a volcanic island.

[Teban54]

[cheezyWXguy]

Gap in the northern eyewall is about to close

[ryxn314]

Imelda looking better and better with each frame. Clouds completely surround the center now. It's entering an area of less shear.

[Sciencerocks]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Well, it seems the OBX made the national news again tonight. Another condemned five homes washed out to sea today on Hatteras Island.

Wind and waves pounding the shore again. 32 kt winds now at Jennetts pier. Wind advisories gusts to 45 through tomorrow.

Bermuda will have a double strike, yet we probably won’t hear of any real damage.

The reason is simple. Here we build multi-million dollar homes out of sticks.

There they are made of bricks.

The big bad wolf lives just up the street.

Geology plays a large part in that too. A brick house on a barrier island won't hold up when the land beneath it erodes away.

We also have beaches, but we don’t build our houses on them.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Kazmit]

Looks like Imelda is deepening at a good clip. The plane just measured 967 mb in the center.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Looks like Imelda is deepening at a good clip. The plane just measured 967 mb in the center.

If the winds have time to catch up, that pressure would be consistent with a cat 2/3. She may run out of ocean before the winds have time though.

[ryxn314]

Is there a possibility Imelda makes it to 115mph to keep the "TS or MH only" streak? That would be remarkable. 4 majors but under 10 tropical storms.
It's looking pretty good this morning

[cheezyWXguy]

Is there a possibility Imelda makes it to 115mph to keep the "TS or MH only" streak? That would be remarkable. 4 majors but under 10 tropical storms.
It's looking pretty good this morning

Probably not. Imelda does look better than it has for most of its existence, but pressure gradient is too loose. A central pressure in the 960s to 970 isn’t going to get the job done.

[ryxn314]

Is there a possibility Imelda makes it to 115mph to keep the "TS or MH only" streak? That would be remarkable. 4 majors but under 10 tropical storms.
It's looking pretty good this morning

Probably not. Imelda does look better than it has for most of its existence, but pressure gradient is too loose. A central pressure in the 960s to 970 isn’t going to get the job done.

Ah okay that makes sense, cool thought though. I'm just happy we got a hurricane out of it

[kevin]

Second pass, 964.5 mb extrapolated with 2 kt winds nearby so 964/965 mb. Peak FL winds are 97 kt which support an 85 - 90 kt intensity.

[Kazmit]

Second pass, 964.5 mb extrapolated with 2 kt winds nearby so 964/965 mb. Peak FL winds are 97 kt which support an 85 - 90 kt intensity.

Yeah a cat 2 now. Definitely has a chance to make a run for major. Humberto ‘19 did it under similar circumstances.

[cheezyWXguy]

Second pass, 964.5 mb extrapolated with 2 kt winds nearby so 964/965 mb. Peak FL winds are 97 kt which support an 85 - 90 kt intensity.

Yeah a cat 2 now. Definitely has a chance to make a run for major. Humberto ‘19 did it under similar circumstances.

It’s not out of the question, I don’t think, but it would be a feat to pull off. With the front being involved and convection being shallower, I would think a .85 reduction would fit better here, yielding 80-85kt on 97kt FL wind. If true, we’d need 115-120kt FL winds to justify 100kt, which is gonna be tough unless the pressure gets below 960mb

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Second pass, 964.5 mb extrapolated with 2 kt winds nearby so 964/965 mb. Peak FL winds are 97 kt which support an 85 - 90 kt intensity.

Yeah a cat 2 now. Definitely has a chance to make a run for major. Humberto ‘19 did it under similar circumstances.

I agree. People are not expecting a serious storm here.

[cycloneye]

A few Bermuda web cams.

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

https://myearthcam.com/seaair

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webca ... rmuda.html

https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player. ... 517bcba481