NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

A few Bermuda web cams.

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

https://myearthcam.com/seaair

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webca ... rmuda.html

https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player. ... 517bcba481

These are all in-shore or north shore. I don't know if you can find one on the south shore but that's where the action is at the moment.

I'm going to save these for later though, when the wind direction swings around.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 01 2025

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IMELDA HAS STRENGTHENED...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DAMAGING WAVES, AND
FLASH FLOODING TO BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 70.4W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

[Ubuntwo]

Basically all of the wind is on the south side (north side looks to be near or below hurricane force), so if this tracks directly over or south of Bermuda, wind may be surprisingly light.

[cycloneye]

A few Bermuda web cams.

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

https://myearthcam.com/seaair

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webca ... rmuda.html

https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player. ... 517bcba481

These are all in-shore or north shore. I don't know if you can find one on the south shore but that's where the action is at the moment.

I'm going to save these for later though, when the wind direction swings around.

Found one.

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/bermuda/s ... -view.html

[MGC]

Favorable trough interactions have let to impressive intensification results in past hurricanes. Imelda IMO has an excellent chance to over preform and attain Cat-3 status prior to the hurricane's arrival near Bermuda. Recon recently reported a closed 24NM eye. Gonna be close for Bermuda this evening......MGC

[Teban54]

[Buck]

Any more recon scheduled today?

[cycloneye]

Any more recon scheduled today?

The last mission to Imelda will be this afternoon going to the evening.

HURRICANE IMELDA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
A. 01/2330Z
B. AFXXX 2709A IMELDA
C. 01/1830Z
D. 32.6N 65.2W
E. 01/2100Z TO 01/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION

[HurricaneRyan]

Humberto giving Imelda a powerup.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Eye clearing out, this thing is clearly still strengthening. I think the ceiling is higher than the models have shown.

[TomballEd]

Wobble watching, I think Imelda goes south of Bermuda. Looking at Weather Nerds floater.

[cycloneye]

A few Bermuda web cams.

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

https://myearthcam.com/seaair

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webca ... rmuda.html

https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player. ... 517bcba481

Looking at the cams, the sea is very rough and it will be worse in the comming hours. All those boats that are seen in the cam stay where they are?

[ScottNAtlanta]

By the end of today, we will finally reach the average ACE for this date of the season. Been a awhile since it took this long to get to average

[Sciencerocks]

[Beef Stew]

I wouldn’t be surprised if recon finds Imelda as a ~95kt storm. I don’t think a run at category 3 is off the table at all.

[sasha_B]

Pressure was still falling when the last recon flight ended (final eye dropsonde supported 965 hPa), so it'll be interesting to see if that trend has continued - and since this is a low-level flight, we'll also get a better idea of surface winds. Doubtful that Imelda can exceed the official forecast by 10 kts and make SSHWS "major" status but dropping to <960 hPa (the "baseline" for a T5.5 in the Atlantic & the lower bound of "Cat 3" on the unofficial proof-of-concept MSLP intensity scale presented by Dr. Klotzbach et al. last year) is looking like a real possibility. The CZK formula, given a Vmax of 77 kts - which is below the strength listed on the last advisory - yields 963 hPa, according to the UW-CIMSS ADT web site, and if the storm is indeed putting out 85 kt sustained winds right now, it would yield an even lower estimate.

[Hammy]

Hoping the plane gets there before the front does, would be nice to see how close this came to Cat 3.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

A few Bermuda web cams.

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

https://myearthcam.com/seaair

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webca ... rmuda.html

https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player. ... 517bcba481

Looking at the cams, the sea is very rough and it will be worse in the comming hours. All those boats that are seen in the cam stay where they are?

Camera 4 is Hamilton Harbour. Those boats are on sheltered storm moorings. It will be choppy but they should be fine. Most people leave their boats in the water.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

I think this’ll just barely miss out on being the 4th consecutive MH of the season. Still, every hurricane becoming at least a Category 2 is nothing to scoff at. Hopefully this won’t be too bad for Bermuda.