NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

From 5 PM discussion: NHC has it up to 90kt in 12 hours. Will it be a little more than that and try to reach cat 3?

The GFS and ECMWF indicate some strengthening
could occur in the near term due to baroclinic interaction, and this
is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

We will find out soon; recon in the plane now

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Turning now for first center pass NW to SE

[hipshot]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/692/ZGVMDe.gif

Man, that little blue area on the right of the video sure looks small!

[aspen]

AF301’s barometer isn’t working so we’re going to have to wait for a dropsonde to figure out Imelda’s current pressure.

Winds on the NE side are incredibly weak.

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

Dramatic difference between quadrants. NE quadrant has 51 kt FL wind, SE quadrant has 97 kt FL wind so far.

[Kazmit]

Landfall will be a close call. The exact center might be just offshore as the eye passes. The backside will be much worse than the front, that's for sure- 12z Euro says 50kts on the front and 80kts on the back.

[kevin]

Dropsonde supports 967 - 970 mb. 98 kt peak FL winds support 85 - 90 kt.

[Teban54]

Dropsonde supports 967 - 970 mb. 98 kt peak FL winds support 85 - 90 kt.

https://i.imgur.com/OVyPSny.png

Pressure is about the same as the last recon mission, if not dropped slightly, which is in line with worse satellite appearance (particularly a less clear eye). The slight increase in wind speed could mean that it's catching up with the pressure, or that Imelda is tightening up.

It's also possible that Imelda actually peaked earlier when the eye was at the clearest... We'll see with the next pass.

[ryxn314]

It looks like it likely missed the window for major status. Ah well, I'll take CAT 2. The season needed at least 1 middle-intensity storm.

[Travorum]

The VDM from the first pass reports no eyewall remaining. Imelda is likely past it's prime structurally but frontal interaction could produce some nasty gusts for Bermuda. Stronger winds may be present in the W or SW because of this, we'll see on the next pass.

[MarioProtVI]

Combined with the recon pass showing a dissolved eyewall and a huge temp spike, this is rapidly undergoing extratropical transition as the front is basically crashing on the center now. Should be fully EX by 03-06z, though I’m pretty sure NHC will continue advisories afterwards until it passes Bermuda and the threat diminishes.

[Kazmit]

Maybe a little north of the forecast track?

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

Dropsonde supports 967 - 970 mb. 98 kt peak FL winds support 85 - 90 kt.

https://i.imgur.com/OVyPSny.png

Pressure is about the same as the last recon mission, if not dropped slightly, which is in line with worse satellite appearance (particularly a less clear eye). The slight increase in wind speed could mean that it's catching up with the pressure, or that Imelda is tightening up.

It's also possible that Imelda actually peaked earlier when the eye was at the clearest... We'll see with the next pass.

You’re probably right about it peaking earlier when they eye briefly cleared. I believe all runs of the 12z hurricane model suite (hwrf, hmon, hafs a/b) showed a peak in the early afternoon around 90-95kt, with the exception of one of the hafs that forecast over 100kt. Therefore I think it’s conceivable that a peak of 90kt or so was reached between recon passes, but I don’t see much justification for an upgrade to cat3. Especially since convection hasn’t been exceptionally deep outside of intermittent bursts and increased frontal interaction seems to mean a larger disconnect between FL winds and surface winds. Close but no cigar imo.

[ryxn314]

Dropsonde supports 967 - 970 mb. 98 kt peak FL winds support 85 - 90 kt.

https://i.imgur.com/OVyPSny.png

Pressure is about the same as the last recon mission, if not dropped slightly, which is in line with worse satellite appearance (particularly a less clear eye). The slight increase in wind speed could mean that it's catching up with the pressure, or that Imelda is tightening up.

It's also possible that Imelda actually peaked earlier when the eye was at the clearest... We'll see with the next pass.

You’re probably right about it peaking earlier when they eye briefly cleared. I believe all runs of the 12z hurricane model suite (hwrf, hmon, hafs a/b) showed a peak in the early afternoon around 90-95kt, with the exception of one of the hafs that forecast over 100kt. Therefore I think it’s conceivable that a peak of 90kt or so was reached between recon passes, but I don’t see much justification for an upgrade to cat3. Especially since convection hasn’t been exceptionally deep outside of intermittent bursts and increased frontal interaction seems to mean a larger disconnect between FL winds and surface winds. Close but no cigar imo.

Stop, I'm getting flashbacks about the Sally upgrade to 110mph from 105mph that close but no cigar prevented 2020 from having 8 majors which would have been a standalone record. The amount of what could have beens I could talk about. It still pains me that 2021 got so close to Adria with all of October wasted.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Core more clear on radar now. Or what’s left of it.

[cycloneye]

Still a cat 2 hurricane at 00z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2025100200, , BEST, 0, 318N, 664W, 85, 971, HU

[cheezyWXguy]

Pressure is about the same as the last recon mission, if not dropped slightly, which is in line with worse satellite appearance (particularly a less clear eye). The slight increase in wind speed could mean that it's catching up with the pressure, or that Imelda is tightening up.

It's also possible that Imelda actually peaked earlier when the eye was at the clearest... We'll see with the next pass.

You’re probably right about it peaking earlier when they eye briefly cleared. I believe all runs of the 12z hurricane model suite (hwrf, hmon, hafs a/b) showed a peak in the early afternoon around 90-95kt, with the exception of one of the hafs that forecast over 100kt. Therefore I think it’s conceivable that a peak of 90kt or so was reached between recon passes, but I don’t see much justification for an upgrade to cat3. Especially since convection hasn’t been exceptionally deep outside of intermittent bursts and increased frontal interaction seems to mean a larger disconnect between FL winds and surface winds. Close but no cigar imo.

Stop, I'm getting flashbacks about the Sally upgrade to 110mph from 105mph that close but no cigar prevented 2020 from having 8 majors which would have been a standalone record. The amount of what could have beens I could talk about. It still pains me that 2021 got so close to Adria with all of October wasted.

It’s funny you mention Sally. I was at the time, and still am, of the opinion that Sally ‘20 deserved the upgrade to major at landfall while Zeta ‘20 didn’t. But that can be discussed in a “hurricane hills to die on” thread in the talkin’ tropics forum if someone ever creates it, haha.