NATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical
wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness
and showers several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by midweek as it moves quickly across the central tropical
Atlantic, approaching the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this
week. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Should the GFS pan out, looks like we could have a record or, at least close, for the lowest number of named storms for an above-average ACE season

1999 had just 12 NS but was hyperactive in terms of ACE, a true "quality over quantity" season in every sense of the word (177 ACE, 5 C4). Probably won't get to that point (the September lull was detrimental in that regard) but a favorable ENSO state + warm Caribbean should provide ample opportunity for an active final 2 months of the season.

Yup. Forgot to add "in the satellite era"

It looks like Jerry could generate 30-40 at least, based on the GFS, and would comfortably put the NATL ACE above average (we are slightly above 90 already)

[Ptarmigan]

Should the GFS pan out, looks like we could have a record or, at least close, for the lowest number of named storms for an above-average ACE season

1999 had just 12 NS but was hyperactive in terms of ACE, a true "quality over quantity" season in every sense of the word (177 ACE, 5 C4). Probably won't get to that point (the September lull was detrimental in that regard) but a favorable ENSO state + warm Caribbean should provide ample opportunity for an active final 2 months of the season.

I think we should have Jerry soon. 1999 was also a devastating season. I think Floyd, Gert, and Lenny were Category 5 hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

[zzzh]

[chaser1]

Still not a T.D. but 95L is really getting its act together. The longer it takes, the more west it'll go. The Leewards & Virgin Islands could be looking down the barrel of a Cat 2 or 3. Hey, for all we know, Jerry may have an interest to drop on in and visit a few hundred thousand of his favorite Boricua while in the neighborhood.

[chaser1]

COC "Best (not Track) Guess" would be 7.9 and 34.7. How long of a drive from San Juan Airport to Las Croabas? Just asking......

[IsabelaWeather]

COC "Best (not Track) Guess" would be 7.9 and 34.7. How long of a drive from San Juan Airport to Las Croabas? Just asking......

An hour or so lol. Beautiful area, be cool to see in a storm.

[chaser1]

COC "Best (not Track) Guess" would be 7.9 and 34.7. How long of a drive from San Juan Airport to Las Croabas? Just asking......

An hour or so lol. Beautiful area, be cool to see in a storm.

Really??? That makes that prospect of travel there all the more enticing! I think Frontier and Allegiiant offer some pretty sweet air fare deals from the mainland to P.R. too.

[Cachondo23]

Still not a T.D. but 95L is really getting its act together. The longer it takes, the more west it'll go. The Leewards & Virgin Islands could be looking down the barrel of a Cat 2 or 3. Hey, for all we know, Jerry may have an interest to drop on in and visit a few hundred thousand of his favorite Boricua while in the neighborhood.

Are you forecasting a Hugo type hurricane? A bit early right?

[abajan]

Here I go , in the cone again!

Remember, not a cone track. It’s just a formation cone area.

That's technically correct but in actuality it pretty much indicates the path NHC feels the cyclone in question will likely take.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical
wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness
and showers several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by midweek as it moves quickly across the central tropical
Atlantic, approaching the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this
week. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[chaser1]

Still not a T.D. but 95L is really getting its act together. The longer it takes, the more west it'll go. The Leewards & Virgin Islands could be looking down the barrel of a Cat 2 or 3. Hey, for all we know, Jerry may have an interest to drop on in and visit a few hundred thousand of his favorite Boricua while in the neighborhood.

Are you forecasting a Hugo type hurricane? A bit early right?

Forecasting? Keep in mind that there's a razor fine line between "forecasting" and acknowledging potential risk.

Admittedly, it would be irrational to even attempt to make such a forecast prior to even having an established deep core tropical cyclone in the basin. Even if we had an established tropical storm in situ, making such a forecast contrary to every major forecast model, while we begin to tilt toward mid Octoberwould practically qualify as satire at its very best.

No, it's a bit early for making any type of forecast. On the other hand, go ahead and try to make last moment travel plans, accommodations, work schedule changes, get cheap plane tickets to fly on over in order to chase the storm (or fly family out of harms way). Point being, one need not know how a potential situation will unfold, but to simply have the acuity to anticipate & plan for any potential event that potentially could occur.

I do think that a Hugo type scenario could potentially play out.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical
wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands
by the latter part of the week. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi

[wxman57]

Yet another NE Caribbean grazing event. May be a weak TS as it passes the NE Caribbean Thursday night, but likely no sustained TS wind across the islands. Could threaten Bermuda (again) by late Sunday or Monday. We're starting advisories this morning as we have clients in the NE Caribbean.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Sort of looks like convection is becoming more concentrated around 9.5N 37.5W. We'll see if this persists enough to consolidate into a TC eventually - ASCAT has already picked up a broad but closed circulation with this so I'd imagine it wouldn't take much.

[chaser1]

This is steadily becoming better organized. 95L looks like a classic September MDR roller, and the type of large pouch disturbance that may have a larger capacity to moderate the environment around it, rather then be delicately impacted by any smaller scale moderate conditions. Visible satellite suggests to me a fairly congruent low & mid level alignment with an east/west stretched LLC becoming increasingly tighter by the hour around 10.5N & 38W. Any improvement in center co-located convective banding would probably result in an upgrade to T.D. between this evening and early tomorrow. I'll frankly be surprised if this system does not steadily intensify to (at least) a Cat 2 hurricane prior to reaching 60W.
(Edited to correct estimated COC)

[cycloneye]

Clouds are organizing.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Visible satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
located over the tropical central Atlantic is gradually becoming
better organized. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1975235629177807069