WPAC: NAKRI - Typhoon

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 251004 1200 7.0N 154.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Models develop this and currently tracking toward the weakness created by 28W

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 061200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/061200Z-070600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZOCT2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZOCT2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05OCT25 1800Z, TYPHOON 27W (MATMO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N
108.5E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO
80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 052100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
(2) AT 06OCT25 0600Z, TYPHOON 28W (HALONG) WAS LOCATED NEAR
25.7N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 579 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 060900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N
147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 060613Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH AN AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1)//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

JMA TD

WWJP27 RJTD 061200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 147E WNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

Up to mediun

ABPW10 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/062100Z-070600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 06OCT25 1800Z, TYPHOON 28W (HALONG) WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N
139.2E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTPN32 PGTW 062100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0N 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 146.3E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. A 061108Z ASCAT REVEALS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS OVER 90 NAUTICAL MILES ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH, AND GFS INDICATES THE
MOST INTENSE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN 95W MOVING NORTHNORTHWESTWARD WITH BOTH GEFS AND
ECENS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED 27W (MATMO) INFORMATION DUE TO
FINAL WARNING EXPIRATION.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Tcfa

[Hayabusa]

29W soon

95W INVEST 251007 1200 16.4N 141.4E WPAC 25 1008

[Hayabusa]

HFSA makes this a typhoon in the later taus

[Hayabusa]

JMA TC warning

[Hayabusa]

Jma upgrades to TS Nakri

[Hayabusa]

After Halong didn't enter the PAR, this one looks to enter the PAR now and be locally named as Quedan and would be the 4th consecutive use of the name that didn't affect then Philippines.

[Hayabusa]

JMA upgrades to STS but the catch here is Himawari-9 is down for 3 hours now since 1540z, so I wonder how did they do their 18z analysis and conclude it's an STS? Radar data? Did they use KMA's GK2A?

T2523(Nakri)
Issued at 2025/10/11 18:50 UTC
Analysis at 10/11 18 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N29°25′ (29.4°)
E132°20′ (132.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area E280 km (150 NM)
W165 km (90 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

 https://x.com/doomhaMwx/status/1977537177908285622