NATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[chaser1]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1975577558038245421

Josh, book the flight

[aspen]

Jerry 2025's projected track and intensity (officially) are both eerily similar to the last Jerry, in 2019.

This is not the first time that it happened this season: Humberto 2025 also had similarities in track with Humberto 2019, but it eventually overperformed by 2 categories. Will Jerry do the same?

https://i.postimg.cc/Tw448tqF/Jerry-2019-path.png

Would be really funny if Jerry somehow becomes the third non-landfalling Cat 5 of the season.

Only 10 named storms with a completely dead first half of September, yet about one-third of them become Cat 5s.

[Teban54]

Jerry 2025's projected track and intensity (officially) are both eerily similar to the last Jerry, in 2019.

This is not the first time that it happened this season: Humberto 2025 also had similarities in track with Humberto 2019, but it eventually overperformed by 2 categories. Will Jerry do the same?

https://i.postimg.cc/Tw448tqF/Jerry-2019-path.png

Would be really funny if Jerry somehow becomes the third non-landfalling Cat 5 of the season.

Only 10 named storms with a completely dead first half of September, yet about one-third of them become Cat 5s.

Even just hitting Cat 3 would give the season a completely bizarre ratio of 10/5/4.

[aspen]

Jerry 2025's projected track and intensity (officially) are both eerily similar to the last Jerry, in 2019.

This is not the first time that it happened this season: Humberto 2025 also had similarities in track with Humberto 2019, but it eventually overperformed by 2 categories. Will Jerry do the same?

https://i.postimg.cc/Tw448tqF/Jerry-2019-path.png

Would be really funny if Jerry somehow becomes the third non-landfalling Cat 5 of the season.

Only 10 named storms with a completely dead first half of September, yet about one-third of them become Cat 5s.

Even just hitting Cat 3 would give the season a completely bizarre ratio of 10/5/4.

And probably around 110-115 ACE too. That’s higher than 2022 despite 4 less storms.

[chaser1]

Conditions seem to be working in its favor but I would think Jerry's large size might be its biggest obstacle for achieving RI in the nearer term especially as it's inner core is still becoming better developed. I could see it making a run at MH but another Cat 5 would be something!

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Jerry 2025's projected track and intensity (officially) are both eerily similar to the last Jerry, in 2019.

This is not the first time that it happened this season: Humberto 2025 also had similarities in track with Humberto 2019, but it eventually overperformed by 2 categories. Will Jerry do the same?

https://i.postimg.cc/Tw448tqF/Jerry-2019-path.png

Would be really funny if Jerry somehow becomes the third non-landfalling Cat 5 of the season.

Only 10 named storms with a completely dead first half of September, yet about one-third of them become Cat 5s.

Even just hitting Cat 3 would give the season a completely bizarre ratio of 10/5/4.

And the only non-major hurricane has a shot at the post-season upgrade.

[MarioProtVI]

 https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1975594210494750920


Speed shear from the intensifying trades in the MDR might be an issue for Jerry the NHC kind of glossed over so I would be very wary of high expectations for Jerry. A hurricane is still likely but probably not until maybe Thursday night/Friday. Just not a major - at least not unto the subtropics but chances of that there are still low IMO.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50 mph.

AL, 10, 2025100718, , BEST, 0, 118N, 454W, 45, 1003, TS

[aspen]

 https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1975594210494750920


Speed shear from the intensifying trades in the MDR might be an issue for Jerry the NHC kind of glossed over so I would be very wary of high expectations for Jerry. A hurricane is still likely but probably not until maybe Thursday night/Friday. Just not a major - at least not unto the subtropics but chances of that there are still low IMO.

I can see the center outrunning the convective shield a bit on visible.

The HWRF has been showing Jerry to eventually align itself within the next 24-36 hours. While the HWRF has a historical bias of over-intensifying systems in this region within strong trades, it’s done a good job with Jerry’s rapid genesis and general convective structure over the last 1-2 days, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.

[AJC3]

https://i.imgur.com/FT9itG4.png
ASCAT does not show a closed circulation

https://i.imgur.com/w3UY82f.png
A more detailed version.

For the record, here's the stitched METOP-B/C passes from that time. Still looked like an open wave with a cusp that was just about there, although there are a few WNW winds on the SW side. Any closed LLC at that time would have been tiny.

[cycloneye]

Msbee and Patti, you have a Tropical Storm Watch issued.

[Teban54]

NHC's intensity forecast trended slightly stronger, now maintaining at 85 kt (Cat 2) in the 3-5 day range.

Interestingly, they seem to trust the models showing shear north of the islands, rather than both HAFS models that bomb out only past the islands.

The storm is forecast to continue to strengthen during the next
couple of days as it remains in conducive environmental conditions
of light winds aloft, abundant moisture, and over warm waters. Given
the favorable conditions, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model show
that there is about 20 percent chance of rapid intensification
occurring during the next day or two. The NHC intensity forecast
continues to show Jerry becoming a hurricane in a day or so, with
additional intensification expected after that. After the system
passes by the islands, most of the models show some increase in
shear, which should end the strengthening trend. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and in general
agreement with HCCA and IVCN.

[MarioProtVI]

I still think NHC is going too high given the westerlies are already apparent with the LLC running ahead of convection. SHIPS also does not take this into account, so the chances of a hurricane by tomorrow night which is what they’re expecting is very slim.

[Ubuntwo]

https://i.imgur.com/FT9itG4.png
ASCAT does not show a closed circulation

https://i.imgur.com/w3UY82f.png
A more detailed version.

For the record, here's the stitched METOP-B/C passes from that time. Still looked like an open wave with a cusp that was just about there, although there are a few WNW winds on the SW side. Any closed LLC at that time would have been tiny.

FWIW, ambiguities from that METOP-B pass appeared to depict a closed circulation as one valid solution.


Papin also has a series of tweets on the limitations of ASCAT. There have been several TCs where a recon-confirmed LLC popped up as an open wave on the instrument. We can't say for sure if that's the case here, but the level of organization suggests it may be.

[AJC3]

For the record, here's the stitched METOP-B/C passes from that time. Still looked like an open wave with a cusp that was just about there, although there are a few WNW winds on the SW side. Any closed LLC at that time would have been tiny.

FWIW, ambiguities from that METOP-B pass appeared to depict a closed circulation as one valid solution.
https://i.imgur.com/W9Xfv9G.png

Papin also has a series of tweets on the limitations of ASCAT. There have been several TCs where a recon-confirmed LLC popped up as an open wave on the instrument. We can't say for sure if that's the case here, but the level of organization suggests it may be.

Agreed. At worst, it was almost there by that time. However, the few WSW winds on the SW side of the LLC suggest that there indeed was a small (tiny, even) closed LLC that the instrument couldn't quite resolve.

[cycloneye]

A. 10L (JERRY)

B. 08/0000Z

C. 12.2N

D. 47.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/PRXY/VIS

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT
BASED ON PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT. SYSTEM
LIKELY A BIT STRONGER THAN FT INDICATES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[Zonacane]

Exposed LLC is more than a degree NW of that MLC, yikes.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1975726348506439735

[AJC3]

[Sciencerocks]

Strong northwesterly shear..Probably 25 knts. I don't see this becoming a hurricane until it turns northwestward after 84-96 hours north of the windwards. Models have also trended downwards even then.