NATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Nimbus]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8454/p9t0oT.gif

Strong northwesterly shear..Probably 25 knts. I don't see this becoming a hurricane until it turns northwestward after 84-96 hours north of the windwards. Models have also trended downwards even then.

Both GFS and Euro still putting the track to the east of the islands at 36 hours.

Upper air conditions may improve for development if the trough currently over Arkansas and Tennessee digs and some ridging builds to the southeast ahead of it.

[kevin]

Recon found max. FL winds of 56 kt and 1002.2 mb with 4 kt winds nearby. Should be sufficient for a slight upgrade to 1002mb/50kt.

[cycloneye]

kevin, you were right.

AL, 10, 2025100812, , BEST, 0, 133N, 516W, 50, 1003, TS

[wxman57]

Center appears to be down at 13N/50.8W, under the convection. That best track point is wrong. Max wind at surface likely 40 kts. Nothing to indicate 50 kts. Only 45 kts at FL. Weaker, fast-moving storm may pass closer to the NE Caribbean, but there won't be too much strong wind SW of the track Friday.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5803/mqIaze.gif

Recon still confirmed the center at 13N (same latitude as the center of the convective canopy), but the naked swirl on this satellite loops looks like 14N. Is it an ongoing center relocation or just an eddy being thrown out?

[Ubuntwo]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5803/mqIaze.gif

Recon still confirmed the center at 13N (same latitude as the center of the convective canopy), but the naked swirl on this satellite loops looks like 14N. Is it an ongoing center relocation or just an eddy being thrown out?

The recon plane is flying at 700mb, so they're not fixing the LLC we can see on vis. Different layer of the storm vertically.

[TomballEd]

Would not be completely surprised to see the LLC completely decouple and race ahead as a naked swirl.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC lowered the forecasted peak and I wouldn't be surprised if they lower it further in future advisories. I'm skeptical this becomes anything more than a sheared TS but we'll see.

[TomballEd]

Would not be completely surprised to see the LLC completely decouple and race ahead as a naked swirl.

Latest recon and satellite make the naked swirl running away and Jerry dying seem quite possible.

[aspen]

This really went from a potential 20+ ACE major to doomed as sheared slop in under 24 hours. It’s acting a lot like a typical July/early August western MDR system that can’t really get going due to the seasonally strong trades.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Recon is measuring the strong ESE wind from the Saharan Air Layer outbreak well NE of the exposed center. That's not Jerry's circulation.

[msbee]

I subscribe to Crownweather and this is an update I just received. comments?

Tropical Storm Jerry: Jerry is a sheared tropical storm that actually looked better yesterday than it does right now. The low-level center of the storm is not lined up at all with the deep convection that’s occurring with the storm. Even with this, reconnaissance aircraft have found that the storm has 60 mph maximum winds.

Jerry is moving very quickly to the west-northwest as a high pressure ridge to the north of the storm steers it in this direction. The western end of this high pressure ridge stops at about the longitude of the Lesser Antilles with a weakness in the high pressure ridge found just to the northwest of the Lesser Antilles.

This means that Jerry will begin to turn to the northwest sometime during the day on Thursday and because of this, the center of Jerry should pass only about 60-80 miles to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands during Thursday evening. Because of this close pass to the northern Leeward Islands, rain squalls and gusty winds will likely affect the Leeward Islands during Thursday into Friday. Of some particular concern are the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, St. Barts, St. Martin and Anguilla where wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph could occur during Thursday night. Finally, Jerry will produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across much of the Leeward Islands starting on Thursday and lasting into Friday & this could lead to localized flood issues.

[WeatherBoy2000]

This really went from a potential 20+ ACE major to doomed as sheared slop in under 24 hours. It’s acting a lot like a typical July/early August western MDR system that can’t really get going due to the seasonally strong trades.

I don't think it's quite doomed yet, Gabrielle looked like garbage in the mdr as well before blowing up in the subtropics.

[Kazmit]

This really went from a potential 20+ ACE major to doomed as sheared slop in under 24 hours. It’s acting a lot like a typical July/early August western MDR system that can’t really get going due to the seasonally strong trades.

I don't think it's quite doomed yet, Gabrielle looked like garbage in the mdr as well before blowing up in the subtropics.

Nothing south of 20N has performed this season.

[Teban54]

This really went from a potential 20+ ACE major to doomed as sheared slop in under 24 hours. It’s acting a lot like a typical July/early August western MDR system that can’t really get going due to the seasonally strong trades.

I don't think it's quite doomed yet, Gabrielle looked like garbage in the mdr as well before blowing up in the subtropics.

Nothing south of 20N has performed this season.

Erin's peak as a Category 5 hurricane was achieved at 19.7N 62.8W. (Obviously, it was already a strong hurricane before that latitude.)

[Hurricane2022]

CrazyC83, wxman57, what are the expectations for TS Jerry's future now, in your opinion? Is there still a chance of him becoming a hurricane? Could Jerry succumb to the shear (maybe even sooner than expected) or perhaps he'll be resilient and flourish in a place with good conditions?

[Kazmit]

I don't think it's quite doomed yet, Gabrielle looked like garbage in the mdr as well before blowing up in the subtropics.

Nothing south of 20N has performed this season.

Erin's peak as a Category 5 hurricane was achieved at 19.7N 62.8W. (Obviously, it was already a strong hurricane before that latitude.)

Oops. Still, everything has been north of the Caribbean.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks as if the latest blow up is pulling the center into more vertical alignment