NATL: KAREN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Europa non è lontana]

Popped up on the 8 PM TWO.

A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure is located several
hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing some
modest convective activity near its center. Some additional
subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible over
the next couple of days before it moves poleward of the Gulf Steam
into a less favorable thermodynamic environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Subtrop]

AL, 96, 2025100900, , BEST, 0, 419N, 356W, 45, 996, EX, 34, NEQ, 30, 70, 50, 30, 1020, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, SPAWNINVEST, al752025 to al962025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962025.dat

[StormWeather]

AL, 96, 2025100900, , BEST, 0, 419N, 356W, 45, 996, EX, 34, NEQ, 30, 70, 50, 30, 1020, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, SPAWNINVEST, al752025 to al962025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962025.dat

Talk about unexpected, but this came from nowhere!

[MarioProtVI]

This reminds me quite a bit of Patty from last year. It’s already shed its fronts/has occluded so it’s probably halfway there.

[StormWeather]

This reminds me quite a bit of Patty from last year. It’s already shed its fronts/has occluded so it’s probably halfway there.

But unlike Patty (which moved generally eastwards), this one is expected to continue gaining latitude.

[MarioProtVI]

This reminds me quite a bit of Patty from last year. It’s already shed its fronts/has occluded so it’s probably halfway there.

But unlike Patty (which moved generally eastwards), this one is expected to continue gaining latitude

True, but to be fair 96L has almost the same convective structure as when Patty was deemed to have become a SS in its TCR. If it can fire more deep convection overnight via instability or whatnot then we could see a jumpscare moment where it’s here by this time tomorrow. Honestly more deserving of a 30/30 right now IMO given ASCAT showed its detached from fronts already.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

North Atlantic (AL96):
A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing
limited shower activity near its center. Some subtropical or
tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or
two before it moves over even cooler waters and into a stronger
shear environment. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a subtropical system to me. Should be upgraded either 11am or 5pm is my guess.

[ChrisH-UK]

Now the sun is up looks much better, looks like your typical northern latitude storm pulling moisture in from the south.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

North Atlantic (AL96):
A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing
limited shower activity near its center. Some subtropical or
tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or
two before it moves over even cooler waters and into a stronger
shear environment. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

The convection is gradually organising. https://meteologix.com/hu/satellite/306 ... lay-0-30-8

[JetFuel_SE]

Looking great right now, should be an orange at least.

[Buck]

Would be great to have a Karen that spins her wheels out to sea.

[MarioProtVI]

This is literally 01L 2023 again with NHC not even raising the chances (down to Cangiolosi doing the TWO who famous left 01L at 0/0 for no reason other then “cold air nearby”). It looks significantly more organized than this morning. Papin better be on duty tonight to issue a STWO because this deserves at least a 40/40 minimum.

[StormWeather]

96L continues to look decent despite its near 45N latitude. I could see a brief subtropical storm forming out of this.

[Sciencerocks]

This is one of those systems that one wishes to know the reasoning behind why not.

[Europa non è lontana]

Up to 40/40:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025


North Atlantic (AL96):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized
today in association with a gale-force area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the northwest of the Azores. If these
development trends continue, a subtropical or tropical storm could
form as soon as tonight while the system moves slowly northwestward.
Over the weekend, the system is expected to move over even cooler
waters, ending its chances of further development. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[MarioProtVI]

Papin my man! He was the one that added this storm in the first place so my bet is he was waiting to get on duty so he could pull the STWO trigger Should see 70/70 at 8pm IMO, and SS Karen at 11.

[LarryWx]

Up to 40/40:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025


North Atlantic (AL96):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized
today in association with a gale-force area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the northwest of the Azores. If these
development trends continue, a subtropical or tropical storm could
form as soon as tonight while the system moves slowly northwestward.
Over the weekend, the system is expected to move over even cooler
waters, ending its chances of further development. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/r2aHrLB.gif

I say they’re almost certainly going to name it as a subtropical or tropical storm because Papin’s in the house now and considering the sudden increase to 40% and a mention of it occurring as soon as tonight. It wouldn’t surprise me if they increase it to 60%+ in the 8PM TWO and 80%+ in the 2AM TWO with a naming at some point overnight/before dawn.

[TallyTracker]

I find it odd that the NHC would potentially initiate advisories on a system that is near 45N even if it has tropical characteristics. I would think being at least at in or near the subtropics would be part of the criteria.

It does look better than 2-3 of the early season slop though I will say. lol

[Europa non è lontana]

I find it odd that the NHC would potentially initiate advisories on a system that is near 45N even if it has tropical characteristics. I would think being at least at in or near the subtropics would be part of the criteria.

To paraphrase Dr Knabb — if it looks like a subtropical storm, it probably is, despite its environment and unusual location. Anyway, the NHC's area of responsibility extends throughout the entire North Atlantic basin, as far as I'm aware.