NATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[zzzh]

The center just reformed under the convection. The original center went from 1000mb to 1006mb so the new center will soon take full control.

[zhukm29]

[Hammy]

Seems like there might be multiple centers

[Sciencerocks]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Is it my imagination or does it look like the LLC’a forward motion has slowed?

[wxman57]

Jerry is a sheared mess this morning. Some of those squalls will likely clip the NE Caribbean islands tonight. Don't know if they'll reach as far west as St. Croix or the BVI, though.

[wxman57]

My coworker thinks recon shows Jerry has no circulation. It's very poorly organized, that's for sure.

[LarryWx]

My coworker thinks recon shows Jerry has no circulation. It's very poorly organized, that's for sure.

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
Jerry this morning, and the radar and flight-level wind data show
that the storm remains lopsided with nearly all of the strong winds
and convection on the system's east side. The center itself has
been difficult to fix, but the data generally support a position
that is located south-southeast of the previous track. The initial
intensity is held at 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft
data and satellite estimates.

[WaveBreaking]

Jerry might be undergoing a center relocation this morning since its LLC is elongated NW-SE

[hipshot]

Jerry might be undergoing a center relocation this morning since its LLC is elongated NW-SE

https://i.imgur.com/z16Oudn.gif

https://i.imgur.com/twMC26A.jpeg

If Jerry is going to slide by to the north east, it had better hurry because it doesn't look like from this satellite view.

[cycloneye]

Starting to make the turn to NW.

AL, 10, 2025 BEST, 0, 168N, 601W, 55, 1001, TS

[Sciencerocks]

[Woofde]

It doesn't look it on satellite, but Jerry is starting to enter a lesser area of shear now. It's riding a fine line.

[msbee]

[Blown Away]

https://scontent-mia3-3.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/558973113_1205726191585633_3581502060065412544_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=QwoJucEYDPkQ7kNvwHvfrz3&_nc_oc=AdmpaevRh9eVCqSFYlTCa-TCK2CGQpNBEK2TVUljfsM5dGJhCm7V0hte16kc-7Hb7qE&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-3.xx&_nc_gid=6iPtGxIlWUdDBheGzotKEw&oh=00_AfcWsCZm4a807Vx-cj4OCNumvGfUfq74sZKvgrX2uEtX4w&oe=68EDDEBA

Bee safe MsBee!

[cycloneye]

https://scontent-mia3-3.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/558973113_1205726191585633_3581502060065412544_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=QwoJucEYDPkQ7kNvwHvfrz3&_nc_oc=AdmpaevRh9eVCqSFYlTCa-TCK2CGQpNBEK2TVUljfsM5dGJhCm7V0hte16kc-7Hb7qE&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-3.xx&_nc_gid=6iPtGxIlWUdDBheGzotKEw&oh=00_AfcWsCZm4a807Vx-cj4OCNumvGfUfq74sZKvgrX2uEtX4w&oe=68EDDEBA

Hopefully nothing bad occurs there. Stay safe Barbara and also to Patti.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

The center is near Codrington with peak wind gusts expected near 25 MPH and an inch or two of rain.
You can get tropical storm wind gusts in severe thunderstorms but usually not so much on the weak side of the storm.

[LarryWx]

The lowest SLP is now up to 1007 mb?!?

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102025
A. 09/23:27:20Z
B. 17.47 deg N 061.06 deg W
C. 850 mb 1486 m
D. 1007 mb
E. 240 deg 10 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 11 kt
I. 225 deg 35 nm 23:17:00Z
J. 277 deg 20 kt
K. 226 deg 59 nm 23:10:00Z
L. 43 kt
M. 047 deg 61 nm 23:45:30Z
N. 149 deg 56 kt
O. 047 deg 58 nm 23:44:30Z
P. 18 C / 1525 m
Q. 20 C / 1524 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 7 nm
U. AF306 0610A JERRY OB 03
MAX FL WIND 56 KT 047 / 58 NM 23:44:30Z