HAFS-A isn't quite as strong but it does show a solid C1 (also about to graze Barbuda) as opposed to losing track of the vortex altogether because it's so weak.
NATL: JERRY - Models
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DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Models
Dramatic difference between the 18z and 00z HAFS-B runs. Latter has an MH that clips Barbuda while the former had barely a TC at all.
HAFS-A isn't quite as strong but it does show a solid C1 (also about to graze Barbuda) as opposed to losing track of the vortex altogether because it's so weak.
HAFS-A isn't quite as strong but it does show a solid C1 (also about to graze Barbuda) as opposed to losing track of the vortex altogether because it's so weak.
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MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Models
HAFS-A and -B are huge outliers in intensity and track. What are they seeing/missing?
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MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Models
MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:HAFS-A and -B are huge outliers in intensity and track. What are they seeing/missing?
If I am reading correctly, they seem to reform the circulation under the southerly convection, so Jerry gets through the windward islands before turning north. Other models have the current low level circulation persist and continue to dominate. We'll know in 24 hours whether or not this is happening.
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Emily '87, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20, Teddy '20, Fiona '22, Lee '23, Ernesto '24, Humberto/Imelda '25
Re: NATL: JERRY - Models
MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:HAFS-A and -B are huge outliers in intensity and track. What are they seeing/missing?
If I am reading correctly, they seem to reform the circulation under the southerly convection, so Jerry gets through the windward islands before turning north. Other models have the current low level circulation persist and continue to dominate. We'll know in 24 hours whether or not this is happening.
18z GFS shifts way west with a center relocation. Do we need to be looking out for this one?
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Models
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Dramatic difference between the 18z and 00z HAFS-B runs. Latter has an MH that clips Barbuda while the former had barely a TC at all.
https://i.imgur.com/SCC0pCa.gif
HAFS-A isn't quite as strong but it does show a solid C1 (also about to graze Barbuda) as opposed to losing track of the vortex altogether because it's so weak.
https://i.imgur.com/r500q4c.gif
Safe to say neither of these verified. Still has a chance to ramp up as it recurves though.
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Please note the thougths expressed by this account are solely those of the user and are from a hobbyist perspective. For more comprehensive analysis, consult an actual professional meteorologist or meteorology agency.
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Models
The GFS is now making this a cat 3 as it moves ESE away from Bermuda.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019, Imelda 2025
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: NATL: JERRY - Models
18z HWRF is on pure copium thinking Jerry will pull through and become a Cat 4 as it moves away from Bermuda.
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