NATL: JERRY - Advisories

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NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2025 9:55 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 44.6W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical
central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm
activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone.
This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the
Windward Islands. An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds
between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity
is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry. Convective
bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are
on the storm's east side.

Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. A turn to the
west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge
of the ridge. This should bring the core near or to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Around that
time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the
western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge. In response to the
pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the
west-central Atlantic this weekend. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best
agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which
have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the
northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is
uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the
islands later this week.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to
strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds
appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding
moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a
hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the
northern Leeward Islands. After the system passes by the islands,
the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry
moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable
upper-level wind pattern. For now, the official forecast shows no
change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that
portion of the intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should
monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf,
and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that
area later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 11.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.5N 51.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.9N 54.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.5N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 19.8N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2025 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 46.4W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla. The government of France has
issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Barthelemy and St. Martin.
The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Sint Maarten.



Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

Jerry continues to produce bands of deep convection around the
center, with the strongest winds likely still occurring on the north
and east sides of the circulation. The storm remain far from land,
roughly 900 miles east of the Windward Islands. All of the
satellite intensity estimates have increased, and most of them are
around 45 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is
increased to that value. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow.

Jerry continues to move quickly westward at about 20 kt on the
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. The models
insist that a turn to the west-northwest should occur soon with a
gradual reduction in forward speed expected over the next couple of
days as the storm nears the southwestern side of the ridge. This
motion should take the core of Jerry near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. The
best-performing models show the core of Jerry missing the northern
Leeward Islands, however, there are some GFS, ECMWF, and Google Deep
Mind ensemble members that pass very near or over the islands.
Therefore, interests there and in the Virgin Islands should monitor
the system's progress as details in the forward speed of the storm
and strength of the ridge will be the main factors determining how
close Jerry gets to the islands. By the weekend, a turn to the
north is forecast as the ridge weakens and shifts eastward due to a
large-scale trough amplifying over the western Atlantic. The NHC
track forecast remains on the fast side of the guidance through 72
hours, as models often have a slow bias in the tropical Atlantic.
This prediction is slightly left of the previous one, and in best
agreement with HCCA model.

The storm is forecast to continue to strengthen during the next
couple of days as it remains in conducive environmental conditions
of light winds aloft, abundant moisture, and over warm waters. Given
the favorable conditions, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model show
that there is about 20 percent chance of rapid intensification
occurring during the next day or two. The NHC intensity forecast
continues to show Jerry becoming a hurricane in a day or so, with
additional intensification expected after that. After the system
passes by the islands, most of the models show some increase in
shear, which should end the strengthening trend. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and in general
agreement with HCCA and IVCN.

Based on the forecast and the uncertainties, Tropical Storm
Watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward
Islands.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to strength and could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued
.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on
Thursday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in
areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 12.0N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 12.8N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.5N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.8N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 30.2N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2025 6:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 47.5W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, amd Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2025 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

...JERRY NOT WELL ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING QUICKLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 48.7W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Jerry is
somewhat disorganized this evening. Satellite imagery has been
showing an exposed swirl of low-level clouds to the northwest and
west of the convective mass, with scatterometer data suggesting this
was the western end of an elongated surface circulation. The maximum
scatterometer winds were in the 40-45 kt range, so the initial
intensity remains 45 kt. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/20 kt. Jerry
is currently on the south side of a strong low-level ridge, and
this features should steer the storm west-northwestward for the
next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed. This
motion should take the core of Jerry near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. This part of the
forecast track is close to the various consensus models. However,
the global model forecasts lie to the right of the consensus models,
while the HAFS/HWRF models and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean are
to the left of them. After the cyclone passes the Leeward Islands,
it is expected to turn northward and eventually northeastward due to
the development of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United
States and the western Atlantic. Overall, the new forecast track
is nudged just a little to the left of the previous track through
96 h.

The latest satellite imagery and model analyses suggest that the
environment Jerry is in is not quite as conducive for strengthening
as thought earlier, with the cyclone likely to remain in moderate
westerly shear for the next two to three days. In addition, the
current structure favors a slower development rate. The latest
intensity guidance has responded to these developments by being
less bullish on developing the storm. While the new intensity
forecast calls for the same 85 kt peak intensity as the previous
forecast, it shows a slower rate of development, and the new
forecast lies above the intensity consensus models.

Based on the forecast and the uncertainties, Tropical Storm
Watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward
Islands. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Jerry.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on
Thursday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in
areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 12.8N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 13.6N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 14.9N 55.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.5N 58.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 19.8N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 26.7N 63.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 31.7N 60.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2025 3:49 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...JERRY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 50.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES






Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

Jerry remains poorly organized this morning. Proxy-visible satellite
images indicate the low-level center of the storm is still partially
exposed and elongated, with deep convection displaced well to the
south and east of the center. With no signs of improved convective
organization, the initial intensity of Jerry is held at 45 kt, which
is supported by a 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB and
earlier scatterometer data. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Jerry today.

The storm is racing west-northwestward (285/20 kt) to the south of a
strong low-level ridge extending across the central Atlantic. A
continued west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days. This should bring
the center of the system near or to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands late Thursday into Friday. This part of the NHC
track forecast remains near the center of the guidance envelope,
between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Jerry is forecast
to turn northward by Friday as a deep-layer trough over the western
Atlantic weakens the ridge to the north of the system. Then, Jerry
should accelerate northeastward within the flow ahead of this trough
through early next week. Overall, no noteworthy track changes were
made with this update.

Only modest near-term strengthening is expected due to the sheared
structure of Jerry and its fast forward motion. As the storm begins
to slow down, Jerry should be able to become more vertically aligned
and establish an inner core over very warm waters within generally
favorable environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast shows
a slower rate of strengthening through 24 h, but Jerry is still
forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. Additional strengthening
is anticipated thereafter, and the NHC prediction trends on the
higher side of the intensity guidance later in the forecast period,
closer to HCCA and some of the regional hurricane models.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for many of the northern
Leeward Islands. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the latest updates.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on
Thursday into early Friday, which could result in flash flooding,
particularly in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 13.3N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 15.7N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.3N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 23.6N 63.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.3N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 32.5N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2025 7:22 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 51.6W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2025 10:10 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...JERRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 52.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

Jerry is a sheared tropical cyclone this morning, with the low-level
center racing out ahead of the associated deep convection. Despite
this structure, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak
700-mb wind of 56 kt, and Tail-Doppler radar data showed winds of
around 75 kt at 500 meters above the surface. Even using a
conservative reduction factor for this data of 70 percent yields
surface winds of about 50 kt. Recent ASCAT data also confirm that
the initial intensity is about 50 kt.

Jerry remains on a quick west-northwestward trajectory (285/20 kt),
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The ridge only
extends as far west as the longitude of the Lesser Antilles, and
the weakness to the west is expected to cause Jerry to turn
northwestward by 36 hours, with the center potentially passing only
60-70 n mi northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The NHC track
forecast is along the western side of the guidance envelope during
the first 36 hours of the forecast. After 36 hours, the track
guidance has trended a bit to the east, showing a sharper
recurvature over the central Atlantic resulting from a large
extratropical cyclone that is expected to develop near the U.S.
east coast over the weekend.

Jerry is moving directly against the analyzed shear vector, and
vertical model soundings suggest this orientation may not change
any time soon. It's becoming more likely that Jerry may remain a
sheared tropical storm for the next few days, and the intensity
guidance has responded accordingly. The updated NHC forecast still
shows the possibility of gradual strengthening through 60-72 hours,
however the peak has been lowered by about 10 kt. It's worth
noting that only two of the reliable models, the HWRF and
COAMPS-TC, are still higher than the official forecast, and the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids suggest additional decreases in the
forecast intensity could be possible in future advisories.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into
Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly
in areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 13.9N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 14.7N 55.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.1N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.9N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 20.0N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 22.5N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 25.1N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 29.6N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 32.7N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2025 12:45 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
200 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 53.7W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2025 3:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHEN JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 54.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES





Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

Despite Jerry's significantly sheared structure, the storm's
maximum winds are solidly at 50 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft measured a maximum 5000 ft flight-level wind of 63
kt, which reduces to an intensity of 50 kt. In addition, Jerry's
center passed just south of NOAA buoy 41010, which measured a
1-minute sustained wind of 47 kt a few hours ago. The buoy's
pressure and wind data suggest that Jerry's central pressure is down
to about 1000 mb.

Jerry is still moving quickly west-northwestward at 20 kt, but the
heading has turned slightly to 290 degrees. There's not much
change to the forecast track thinking compared to this morning.
Jerry should move around the southwestern and western periphery of
an eastern/central Atlantic ridge over the next few days, with the
storm turning northwestward by Thursday night and then northward by
Friday night. The bulk of the track models agree on Jerry's center
passing between 60-120 n mi northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands late Thursday. The HMON and HAFS hurricane models bring
the center a bit closer than that, but at this time those are not
considered the most likely scenario. Later in the weekend and
early next week, Jerry is forecast to turn north-northeastward and
then northeastward, and the bulk of the guidance also moves the
storm safely to the southeast of Bermuda in about 4 days. As
always, it's a good idea to continue monitoring future forecasts
since model scenarios can change, and NHC track forecasts at day 4
typically have an average error of 130 n mi.

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear appears likely to continue
for the next few days. At the same time, Jerry's winds are higher
than the satellite appearance would suggest, and warm waters and a
moist, unstable environment could still allow for gradual
strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is not too different
from this morning, bringing Jerry to hurricane strength by Friday
when there could be a slight decrease in shear magnitude. That
said, there is quite a bit of spread in the intensity guidance, and
the NHC forecast is generally between the IVCN and HCCA consensus
aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into
Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly
in areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 14.8N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 15.9N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.4N 59.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 19.4N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.7N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 24.1N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 26.4N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 30.6N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 33.1N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2025 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE
STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 55.4W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2025 10:01 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

...JERRY STILL SHEARED BUT PUTTING UP A FIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 56.1W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025

A very large and cold convective burst has formed near and to the
east of Jerry this evening, with cloud top temperatures below -80 C
and plenty of ongoing lightning near the overshooting tops. During
this period, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has been
sampling the storm, and found a peak 850 mb flight level wind of 66
kt on their northeast outbound leg of the storm. In addition, there
was a dropsonde launched in the inner max wind band near the center,
which had a 500 m mean boundary layer wind of 71 kt and a surface
wind gust of 55 kt. Using a 0.8 reduction factor to the layer mean
wind supports the current intensity of 55 kt, which also matched the
T3.5/55 kt Dvorak estimate provided by TAFB.

Jerry continues to move quickly to the west-northwest, although the
convective burst may have slowed down its motion a tad, estimated at
290/18 kt. The forecast track reasoning remains the same this
evening, with a subtropical ridge well-established to the northeast
of the storm, and Jerry will likely be steered around this feature,
turning to the northwest in 24 hours, and then north by 48 hours. On
the forecast track, this takes Jerry about 80-100 n mi to the
northeast of the northern Leeward islands by late tomorrow. There
remain a few hurricane-regional model outliers to the west (HMON,
HAFS-A), but these models appear to be struggling to depict the
cyclone within their inner-nests. The overall track guidance
envelope has remained pretty steady state this evening, and the NHC
forecast track is very close to the prior advisory, blending the
reliable HCCA and GDMI aids. By early next week, the track guidance
has made a more notable shift south as Jerry recurves around the
subtropical ridge, and the track forecast was nudged further south
and east in the 120 h period. While this track puts Jerry safely
southeast of Bermuda, it's a good idea to continue monitoring future
forecasts since model scenarios can change, and NHC track forecasts
at day 4 have an average error of 130 n mi.

Despite the large convective burst, Jerry still remains under
moderate to strong northwesterly shear, currently estimated at
around 25 kt per GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS. However, Jerry has been
putting up a good fight thus far and its wind field has intensified
despite the continued unfavorable conditions, likely because of
other more favorable factors like sea-surface temperatures and an
unstable environment. The intensity guidance this evening presents a
challenge. The 18 UTC GFS, and the hurricane-regional models based
on the GFS, all show very little change in strength and even
dissipate Jerry in the 72-96 h time frame. However, a glance at the
short-term model forecast shows the GFS is struggling to correctly
depict the convective structure of Jerry. To make matters more
confusing, the last several ECMWF runs now show a much stronger
Jerry in the 48-96 h time frame, with the 18 UTC run showing a
strengthening hurricane with pressure below 960 mb. Ultimately, I'm
going to split the difference between these two extreme solutions,
showing Jerry slowly intensifying over the next 24-36 h, then
showing a little more intensification after as the shear decreases
to 15-20 kt in 36 h after the tropical cyclone passes north of the
Leeward Islands. Needless to say this is a low confidence intensity
forecast, and overall the NHC forecast is on the high side of
the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into
Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly
in areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 15.2N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.4N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.0N 60.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.1N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 22.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 25.0N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 27.4N 62.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 31.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 32.3N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2025 3:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY ON
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE THE
STORM THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES




Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

Jerry still has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm.
Proxy-visible satellite images show the low-level center lies near
the northwestern edge of the convective cloud mass. Deep convection
is mostly confined to the eastern and southeastern portions of the
circulation. Based on the prior aircraft data and a recent T3.5/55
kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity is held at
55 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to
investigate Jerry this morning.

The storm is moving west-northwestward (290/17 kt), but is expected
to turn toward the northwest later today as Jerry moves around
the southwestern extent of a subtropical ridge. The center of Jerry
should pass just to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
later today and tonight. Based on the earlier aircraft fixes and the
latest track guidance, the updated NHC forecast brings Jerry
marginally closer to the northern Leeward Islands during this time.
However, the risk of sustained tropical-storm-force winds impacting
these islands remains low since the strongest winds are occurring
to the east of the center, with much weaker winds found on the west
side of the storm. By Friday night, Jerry should turn northward
within the flow between the central Atlantic subtropical ridge and
an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic. This motion is
forecast through the weekend, followed by a sharp turn toward the
east as the storm becomes caught in mid-latitude westerly flow. The
updated NHC forecast track still keeps Jerry well to the southeast
of Bermuda at 72-96 h, and no notable changes were made to the
latter half of the track forecast.

Only modest strengthening is forecast during the next 12-24 h given
the current sheared structure of Jerry. While the storm remains in a
moderate to strong shear environment, there are signs that the
northwesterly shear could lessen on Friday and Saturday, and the NHC
forecast shows Jerry becoming a hurricane during that time. Overall,
there remains a significant amount of spread and a lack of
consistency in the long-range intensity guidance for Jerry. While
the HAFS hurricane models now show significant strengthening to
major hurricane intensity, other guidance like the GFS and Google
DeepMind show little net intensity change during the next several
days. The NHC intensity forecast remains in between the extreme
solutions, showing gradual strengthening as Jerry moves northward
away from the Leeward Islands, followed by gradual weakening later
in the period as Jerry encounters stronger shear and cooler waters.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas
and in steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 15.7N 57.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.0N 59.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 18.8N 61.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 21.2N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 23.8N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 26.2N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 31.7N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 31.8N 54.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2025 7:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 58.4W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2025 10:44 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 59.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
Jerry this morning, and the radar and flight-level wind data show
that the storm remains lopsided with nearly all of the strong winds
and convection on the system's east side. The center itself has
been difficult to fix, but the data generally support a position
that is located south-southeast of the previous track. The initial
intensity is held at 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft
data and satellite estimates.

The initial motion of Jerry is somewhat uncertain given its poor
low-level structure, but our best guess is west-northwestward at 16
kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion should occur today,
bringing the center of the storm just east of the northern Leeward
Islands later today and tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds are
expected in Barbuda and possible on some of the other islands,
however, given Jerry's asymmetric structure, the strongest winds
should pass to the east of the island chain. A turn to the north is
expected to occur tomorrow, and that motion should continue through
most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western
side of a subtropical ridge. Early next week, a faster eastward or
east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude
westerlies. All of the models show Jerry passing east of Bermuda in
3 or 4 days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant
impacts appear unlikely there. The new track forecast is a little to
the left of the previous one in the short term, due to the initial
position adjustment, but ends up near the previous track from 48 to
120 h. This prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and
Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.

Significant strengthening seems unlikely given Jerry's elongated
low-level structure. However, the shear is expected to let up some
while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass.
Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted during the next few
days. Slow weakening seems like a good bet beyond a few days when
Jerry is forecast to be moving over slightly cooler SSTs and into
stronger shear. The NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the
previous one and is in best agreement with the HCCA model.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to Barbuda
later today and tonight, and could bring tropical storm conditions
to other portions of the northern Leeward Islands by tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 15.9N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.1N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 19.0N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 21.7N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.2N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 26.5N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 28.5N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 31.3N 59.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 31.4N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2025 1:12 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
200 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 60.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Anguilla. The government of France has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for St. Barthelemy and St. Martin. The government of
Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten.



Tropical Storm Jerry Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
320 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR GUADELOUPE...

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Guadeloupe.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2025 3:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 60.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES




Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

Satellite images, aircraft observations, and ASCAT data indicate
that Jerry is a poorly organized and strongly sheared tropical
storm. The low-level center is now fully exposed and elongated,
with the main area of deep convection located on the system's south
and southeast sides. The initial intensity is again held at 55 kt,
but that could be a little generous. The center of Jerry is less
than 100 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, which is often
close enough to experience strong winds. However, the ASCAT and
aircraft data showed that the strongest winds are confined to a
region east of the center. In fact, winds are quite light on the
west side.

Jerry has been moving erratically today, but smoothing through the
fixes suggest that the storm is gradually turning to the right. The
initial motion is now estimated to be 300/16 kt. This general
motion should continue through early Friday, taking the center of
the system near or over the northern Leeward Islands during that
time. However, as mentioned above, the strongest winds should pass
to the east of the islands due to Jerry's asymmetric structure. A
turn to the north is expected to occur by late tomorrow, and that
motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm
moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. Early
next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is
forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass
east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward
asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there. No
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and
this prediction is in best agreement with the HCCA and Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.

Strengthening in the short term seems unlikely given Jerry's poor
initial structure. However, after the storm passes the northern
Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear could decrease some while
Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore,
slow strengthening is predicted from late Friday through Sunday. The
opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next week when
the system moves into stronger shear and over cooler waters. The
NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward due to a combination
of the storm's poor initial structure and latest guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 17.3N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2025 7:00 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY PASSING JUST EAST OF BARBUDA THIS EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 61.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2025 10:23 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

...JERRY NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AS IT PASSES BY JUST EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 61.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES





Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

Jerry remains a disheveled tropical storm this evening. Most of the
deep convection is displaced to the southeast of the low-level
circulation, which continues to run out ahead due to continued
northwesterly vertical wind shear. Air Force reconnaissance
observations indicate a highly asymmetric wind field, with the peak
850 mb flight level winds of 56 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and
very little wind on the western side of the circulation. The flight
level winds support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt this
advisory. The surface pressure has been rising as well, with the
latest dropsonde data supporting a minimum value of 1005 mb.

Jerry appears to finally be moving northwestward now, estimated at
315/15 kt. The track reasoning remains about the same as this
afternoon, as Jerry's track should gradually bend more poleward as
it moves along the western side of a subtropical ridge. On the
forecast track, Jerry is making its closest approach to the Leeward
Islands currently, and its asymmetric wind field means that the
majority of the stronger winds will stay east of the island chain.
Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is
forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass
east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward
asymmetry, significant impacts still remain unlikely there. The NHC
track forecast is quite similar to the prior one, and is a rough
blend between the slower and further west HCCA guidance and the
faster and further east Google DeepMind Mean (GDMI).

The tropical storm is struggling mightily against the unfavorable
northwesterly vertical winds shear, and its current poor structure
also does not bode well for future short-term intensification. After
the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind
shear does decrease to 10-15 knots, but given the current structure,
it may take some time for the system to recover. Nonetheless,
gradual intensification is shown beginning in 36 hours, though the
intensity forecast is lower than the previous advisory. Shear
increases towards the end of the forecast and sea-surface
temperatures decrease as Jerry recurves into the mid-latitude
westerlies, and some weakening is shown again in 120 h. This remains
a low confidence intensity forecast, and on the high side of the
overall guidance envelope.

The most significant hazard expected from Jerry over the next few
days is heavy rainfall, even after Jerry passes to the north due to
its current structure with most of the significant weather to the
south and east of the tropical cyclone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 18.2N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.5N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.1N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 29.5N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 31.8N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 32.5N 51.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#19 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 10, 2025 2:18 am

Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JERRY CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 62.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Re: NATL: JERRY - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 10, 2025 4:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES AS HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM JERRY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 62.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry is still a disorganized tropical storm. The cloud pattern
remains sheared, with deep convection displaced to the south and
east of the low-level center. Earlier aircraft fixes and recent
satellite images suggest the center could be becoming elongated, and
dropsonde data indicated the central pressure was gradually rising
during the previous mission. The storm has not become any better
organized since that time, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt
based on a blend of the earlier aircraft wind data and more recent
satellite intensity estimates. Although the center of Jerry is
passing north of the Leeward Islands, radar data show that heavy
rainfall continues across much of the region, leading to an
increased threat of flash flooding. Another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Jerry.

The storm is moving toward the northwest (315/15 kt), but a
northward turn is expected by tonight as Jerry moves along the
western extent of a subtropical ridge and pulls away from the
islands. This northward motion should continue through the weekend,
keeping the center of Jerry well to the southeast of Bermuda on
Sunday. The latest track guidance is in fairly good agreement on
this part of the forecast, and little change was made to the NHC
prediction, which lies near HCCA and the Google DeepMind mean. By
early next week, Jerry is forecast to turn northeastward and
eastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. This part of the track
forecast is more uncertain, as greater spread is noted in the models
regarding how quickly Jerry becomes captured within this flow.
During this period, the updated NHC forecast is slower and slightly
south of the previous one, following the latest multi-model
consensus trends.

Jerry has been unable to develop a more coherent structure over the
past couple of days within a moderate to strong northwesterly shear
environment. Given its current appearance and the continued shear,
little strengthening is expected in the near term. In fact, the
latest intensity guidance has trended downward, and some models
suggest Jerry may not strengthen at all going forward. Since there
are indications in the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS that the shear
could lessen a bit over the weekend, the updated NHC forecast shows
some modest strengthening, but Jerry is no longer predicted to
become a hurricane. This forecast still lies on the high end of the
guidance, so future downward adjustments could be necessary if
Jerry continues to struggle.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, could still affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this morning. These
conditions are expected to subside later today as Jerry moves away
from the area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 19.2N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 20.9N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 23.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 30.5N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 31.6N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 31.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 31.5N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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