NATL: JERRY - Advisories

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...DESPITE JERRY'S CENTER MOVING NORTH, FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 63.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...JERRY'S CENTER PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
BUT FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 63.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry is not a healthy tropical storm this morning. The low-level
circulation, as seen in satellite imagery and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data, is elongated in a southeast-northwest
direction with most of the associated deep convection displaced
well to the south-southeast. The current intensity is held at 45
kt, based on a maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 54 kt measured
by the reconnaissance aircraft and recent ASCAT data. All of the
tropical-storm-force winds appears to be within the eastern
semicircle.

With the center not all that well defined, the current motion
estimate of northwestward (325 degrees) at 14 kt is a bit
uncertain. Jerry is expected to turn northward later today as it
moves around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with
that trajectory continuing through early Sunday. Then, a sharp
northeastward and eastward turn is expected by Sunday night and
Monday as Jerry becomes embedded in mid-latitude westerly flow.
The NHC track forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aid
during that period and is not too different from the previous
prediction. On days 4 and 5, the official forecast has been nudged
southward a bit based on the latest model trends.

Jerry continues to move in a direction directly into the shear
vector, and this orientation is unlikely to change at least for the
next 48 hours. After 48 hours, the storm's motion and shear vector
become more aligned, but then the storm will be moving over more
marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
atmosphere. As a result, the intensity guidance has continued to
trend downward. The NHC forecast now only shows the possibility of
some slight strengthening, but overall the intensity is nearly
flatlined through day 5.

Thickness fields from the European, UKMET, and Canadian models
suggest that Jerry could start to become entangled in a frontal
boundary by Monday, and the Google DeepMind model loses a large
number of its ensemble members by Tuesday. Therefore, the NHC
forecast now shows Jerry becoming extratropical by Wednesday, if not
sooner. Only the GFS keeps Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day
5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater
Antilles today and tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 20.2N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 26.9N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.2N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 30.8N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 31.4N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.4N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 30.8N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...JERRY'S TRAILING BANDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 63.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry's center remains somewhat ill defined and embedded along the
eastern end of a southeast-to-northwest oriented surface trough.
Strong shear out of the north-northwest is displacing much of the
associated deep convection south-southeast of the center, with
trailing bands still producing heavy rains over portions of the
Leeward Islands. Based on ASCAT data from this morning, the
maximum winds are still estimated to be 45 kt, with
tropical-storm-force winds limited to the eastern side of the
circulation.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/13 kt. Jerry
is expected to turn northward by tonight as it moves around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with that motion
continuing through Saturday night. A northeastward to eastward
motion is expected Sunday through Tuesday as Jerry becomes embedded
within mid-latitude westerly flow. The new NHC track forecast is
not too different than the previous prediction since there have not
been any significant model changes from 6 hours ago.

Jerry is likely to continue battling moderate to strong shear
during the next couple of days, and global model fields (with the
exception of the GFS) suggest that the storm will maintain an
elongated circulation through this period. Although the shear
might decrease a bit after 48 hours, at that point Jerry will be
moving over more marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more
stable environment. The NHC forecast now shows little to no change
in Jerry's intensity through day 3, which is close to that shown by
the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. The same global model fields
also show Jerry possibly interacting with a front in 48-72 hours,
and the updated NHC forecast now shows extratropical transition by
day 4 with dissipation along the front by day 5. The GFS maintains
Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that solution is
considered an outlier.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
tonight, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward
the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas tonight and on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 21.5N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 23.4N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.3N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.3N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 31.4N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 31.4N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 30.1N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...JERRY PULLING AWAY FROM NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT HEAVY
RAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR NORTHERN
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 63.9W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry's low-level circulation remains rather ill-defined especially
on the northwest side of the cyclone, where a surface trough extends
northwestward from Jerry. The SHIPS guidance is showing about 15-20
kt of northwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear in Jerry's
environment, which is displacing convection to the southeast of the
center. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are
still occurring over the Virgin Islands, but the rainband that was
producing the persistent heavy rain over the northeastern Caribbean
Islands has weakened from earlier and is starting to move away. A
recent ASCAT pass shows maximum winds around 50 kt, so the intensity
has been raised to 50 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher
than the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. The tropical-storm-force
winds are limited to the eastern semicircle of Jerry.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 350 degrees at 13 kt.
This general motion should continue through Saturday night because a
north-south-oriented mid-level ridge is currently located to the
east of the cyclone. By Sunday night, Jerry should turn eastward as
it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. Only minor
adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which
generally lies in between the simple and corrected consensus models.

Jerry is likely to continue battling moderate to strong shear during
the next couple of days, and global model fields (with the exception
of the GFS) suggest that the storm will maintain an elongated
circulation through this period. Although the shear might decrease
a bit after 48 hours, at that point Jerry will be moving over more
marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
environment. No changes were made to the previous NHC intensity
forecast, which is near, or slightly below the middle of the
guidance envelope. The global model fields (with the exception of
the GFS) show Jerry interacting with a front by Sunday night, and
the NHC forecast shows Jerry becoming post-tropical by Monday
evening, with dissipation along the front a day or two later. The
GFS maintains Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that
solution is considered an outlier.

It should be noted that the circulation of Jerry is quite
ill-defined on the northwest side. Therefore, it is possible that
Jerry could dissipate at any time this weekend. However, given that
most of the global and regional models hold on to the circulation
into Sunday, the most likely scenario seems to be that Jerry will
stick around for at least another 2 days or so until it begins
interacting with the front.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Jerry will lift north of the Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico overnight. As a result, the risk for
flash flooding will diminish.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Bahamas by Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 22.7N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 24.6N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 27.4N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 32.0N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 31.4N 56.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 15/0000Z 29.8N 51.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen