EPAC: RAYMOND - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

EP, 90, 2025100712, , BEST, 0, 129N, 918W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030, SPAWNINVEST, ep732025 to ep902025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep902025.dat

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025

South of Southern Mexico (EP90):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue mainly on the west
side of a broad area of low pressure located less than one hundred
miles offshore the Guatemala/Mexico border. Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable for
development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week if the system remains
over water. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, near and parallel to the coast of southern Mexico.
Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system is
likely to produce periods of heavy rainfall along the southern coast
of Mexico through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025

South of Southern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located less than one hundred miles offshore of the
Guatemala–Mexico border remain disorganized. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for development of
this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week if the system remains over water. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
near and parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. Interests along
the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
periods of heavy rainfall along the southern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025

South of Southern Mexico (EP90):
A large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms remains
disorganized near and to the west of a broad area of low pressure
located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development over the next few days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week if the
system remains over water. The disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico, and interests there should
monitor its progress. Regardless of development, the disturbance
is expected to produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of
the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through the end of
the week, which could lead to localized flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

South of Southern Mexico (EP90):
A large and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms remains
disorganized near and to the west of a small area of low pressure
located just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this week if the system remains over water. The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and
interests there should monitor its progress. Regardless of
development, the disturbance is expected to produce periods of heavy
rainfall along portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico through the end of the week, which could lead to localized
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southern
Mexico is producing a large and persistent area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests in these areas should
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, the system is expected to produce heavy rainfall along
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through
the end of the week, which could lead to localized flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 AM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 100.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES




Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 AM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

The large area of disturbed weather located near the southwestern
coast of Mexico (Invest 90E) has continued to gain organization.
Convective banding has become more evident in the southern and
western part of the circulation, and the latest Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB are T2.0 and T1.5, respectively. The convective
pattern does suggest that the circulation might still be a bit
elongated, but hourly observations from a cruise ship, the
Norwegian Joy (C6CX3), helped to locate the main center of
circulation, pressure minimum, and estimated winds. The
circulation and convection are now organized enough to classify the
system as a tropical depression.

The center we're now tracking is somewhat discontinuous from a
feature we were tracking yesterday farther to the east, and the
initial motion is a rough estimate of west-northwestward, or 285/12
kt. Strong mid-level ridging over northern Mexico and the
south-central U.S. is expected to steer the depression on a quick
west-northwestward to northwestward track during the next 48 hours,
with the center paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico through
late Friday. The system is then likely to round the western
periphery of the high and move toward the Baja California peninsula
in 2-3 days. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement for
this first forecast, and the NHC track is close to a blend of the
TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression is being affected by strong easterly shear which is
likely to continue for the next 24 hours. However, the system is
also over very warm waters (29-30 degrees Celsius), in an
environment of strong upper-level divergence, and moving
quickly, which should all allow for some modest strengthening
during that time. The NHC forecast is near the top end of
the guidance and close to the HCCA aid in the short term. Although
the shear is forecast to decrease some after 24 hours, the
mid-level environment is expected to become drier and more stable
while the upper-level winds become more convergent. Those changes
should induce weakening while the system is approaching the southern
Baja California peninsula. Although a remnant low point is
provided over northwestern Mexico on day 4, it is likely that the
system will dissipate before that time.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday. Interests in
southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the
system.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with the tropical depression will
impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.2N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 16.8N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 105.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.8N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 21.4N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 23.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 25.5N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 29.2N 110.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
1200 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

...RAYMOND FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 101.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES




Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
300 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

Satellite images and a recent partial ASCAT-C scatterometer pass
were used to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Raymond at the
intermediate advisory. Since that time, deep convection continues to
burst mainly along the western and southern side of the circulation
with cold cloud tops near -80C. Latest subjective and objective
estimates range from 30 to 43 kt. Unfortunately, there was a
scatterometer gap over the much of the system, and no recent
microwave imagery to gain a better idea of the intensity and
structure of the system. Using the the previous satellite derived
winds and the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at
40 kt.

The initial motion is estimated west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt,
although this is a little uncertain given the recent formation of
the center. A strong mid-level ridge over northern Mexico will
steer the system swiftly towards the west-northwest to northwest
over the next couple of days, with the center paralleling the
southwestern coast of Mexico. The system will begin to move more
north-northwestward then northward as it rounds the western
periphery of the ridge towards the Baja California peninsula. The
NHC track is near the previous forecast, which lies near the
consensus aids.

Strong easterly shear is expected to displace most of the convection
over the western semicircle over the next few days, although the
system will remain over very warm sea surface temperatures near
29-30C and within a preferable upper-level wind environment. Thus,
some strengthening is forecast in the short term. In about a day or
so, drier air and a more stable environment will cause the system to
start weakening as it approaches Baja California. Global model
simulated IR imagery shows the system struggling to produce
organized convection by day 3, with the system becoming
post-tropical, and ultimately dissipating by day 4.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday. Interests in
southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the
system.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 16.5N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 17.3N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.6N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 22.5N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 24.8N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 26.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

...POORLY ORGANIZED RAYMOND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 102.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES





Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 PM CST Thu Oct 09 2025

A couple of recent microwave overpasses indicate that Raymond's
cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours.
Images show fragmented curved bands surrounding the elongated (SE
to NW) surface circulation. The cyclone may be struggling a bit
due to the large deep convective complex (-82C cloud tops) located
to the northwest of the center, which could be disrupting the
cyclone's low-level flow. The subjective and objective technique
intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and a recent UW-CIMSS
SATCON analysis estimated the intensity to be 35 kt. Using a blend
of these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The statistical-dynamical Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance and the
global models indicate that Raymond will be battling stiff easterly
vertical shear during the next couple of days, which should hamper
significant development. Subsequently, only modest strengthening is
forecast through Friday. Afterward, an increasingly hostile
thermodynamic environment should result in a weakening trend through
the period. Accordingly, Raymond is expected to degenerate to a
remnant low on Sunday while emerging over the Gulf of California,
and ultimately opening up into a trough by early next week. The NHC
intensity forecast is based on a close agreement of the FSSE, HCCA,
and IVCN intensity aids.

Raymond's center has been difficult to find this evening, and the
initial motion is an estimated west-northwestward heading, or 290/13
kt. A mid-tropospheric high, anchored over northern Mexico, should
steer Raymond toward the west-northwest to northwest, while
paralleling and remaining just offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico, through Friday evening. Afterward, Raymond is forecast to
turn north-northwestward, then northward in response to an
amplifying mid-latitude trough moving over the southwestern United
States. The various consensus models and the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean were used as a basis for the official track forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday. Interests in
southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the
system.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 16.7N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 17.8N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 19.5N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.2N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 25.4N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
300 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 103.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
300 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025

Raymond is skirting the coast of southwestern Mexico. Geostationary
proxy visible satellite imagery shows a partially-exposed
circulation with a burst of growing convection near the center.
Despite Raymond's disheveled convective appearance, the storm seems
to be maintaining a decent surface circulation. Overnight
scatterometer data showed the center of Raymond just offshore of
southwestern Mexico, with wind vectors up to 48 to 50 kt in the
northern semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 50 kt.

Strong easterly vertical wind shear and proximity to the Mexican
coastline should generally limit Raymond's potential to strengthen.
Most global and regional models plateau the intensity, and gradually
weaken the tropical storm while it moves toward a drier airmass.
The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based on the
latest intensity increase but still shows gradual weakening through
the forecast period. Raymond is still expected to become a remnant
low over the Gulf of California on Sunday and dissipate shortly
thereafter.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt along the southern
extent of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The high
pressure system should steer Raymond west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next day or so. By the weekend, a
mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the western United
States, turning the tropical storm northward and bringing it across
the Baja California Peninsula. The latest official forecast has
shifted slightly to the east, largely due to the eastward shift of
the initial position, and now lies near the Google DeepMind forecast
aid.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along portions of Baja
California Sur on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 17.4N 103.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 18.7N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.5N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 22.2N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 26.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND PARALLELING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 104.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES




Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
900 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025

Raymond continues to be a convectively asymmetric tropical storm,
due to moderate to strong easterly wind shear. A GMI microwave pass
at 1035 UTC shows that there is limited curved banding structure in
association with the deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80C
over the western side of the system. There is a fairly large range
of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from 30 to
45 kt. Given the scatterometer satellite wind derived data from last
night, the initial intensity will be held just above those estimates
at 50 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/13 kt.
A strong mid-level ridge over northern Mexico will continue to
steer the system towards the northwest over the next day or so, with
the center paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico. The system
will begin to move more north-northwestward then northward as it
rounds the western periphery of the ridge towards Baja California
Sur. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC track is near
the previous forecast, which lies near the consensus aids.

The storm will continue to be affected by moderate to strong
easterly vertical wind shear, limiting strengthening even though the
system remains over warm sea surface temperatures near 29C. The
system will begin to move into a drier more stable airmass in about
24 h, thus a slow weakening trend will begin. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, near the consensus aids.
However, there is some uncertainty as to whether the system will
still be a tropical storm as it approaches Baja California Sur.
Global simulated IR satellite shows convection waning in about 2
days, and then models have the system opening into a trough early
next week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area along portions of Baja
California Sur on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of
additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 18.3N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.6N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 21.4N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.6N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
1200 PM CST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 105.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND CONTINUES MOVING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 106.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES





Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Raymond is producing deep convection
that is mainly concentrated over the western semi-circle. A recent
scatterometer pass shows winds that were not rain-flagged around 40
kt, which given the undersampling of that instrument and the small
size of Raymond supports winds of 45 kt. There continues to be a
large range of subjective and objective satellite intensity as well
with estimates from 30 to 45 kt. Using a combination of the data,
the intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory. In the next 12
hours, there could be an expansion of the wind radii in the
northeast quadrant due to some coastal convergence enhancements.
Thus, the Tropical Storm Warning was issued on the intermediate
advisory for Las Islas Marias.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/14 kt. A
ridge located over northern Mexico will continue to steer the system
towards the northwest the rest of today and tonight, with the center
paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico. The system will begin
to move more north-northwestward then northward as it rounds the
western periphery of the ridge towards Baja California Sur tomorrow
into Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous and
remains in good agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus and
Google DeepMind solutions.

Raymond continues to be impacted by moderate to strong easterly
vertical wind shear. Given the shear, the system has struggled to
become better organized or develop an inner core. The shear is
expected to continue over Raymond, with the system entering a drier
and more stable airmass in 18-24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and is near the latest consensus
aids. Global model simulated IR satellite images shows convection
waning in about 36h, with models showing the system opening into a
trough early next week. The 60h point is showed for continuity, but
the system could dissipate earlier than forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, and along portions
of Baja California Sur on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of
additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.1N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 20.5N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 22.5N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 24.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 27.1N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
800 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

...RAYMOND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 107.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
800 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025

Raymond has generally changed little over the past several hours.
Satellite images show that the convective pattern appears ragged and
lacks banding features. The low-level center is difficult to see,
but it is estimated to be located near the southeastern edge of the
cloud mass due to strong southeasterly vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in general agreement
with the latest satellite intensity estimates. The western edge of
Raymond's convection is getting close to the southern portion of
Baja California Sur, and heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds
are likely to begin there early Saturday.

The storm continues to move swiftly northwestward at about 16 kt
steered by a strong high pressure area centered over northern
Mexico. A trough moving into the western U.S. is expected to erode
the ridge, which should result in a turn toward the north this
weekend. The center of Raymond is expected to reach the southern
portion of Baja California peninsula on Saturday and then move into
the Gulf of California late Saturday and Sunday. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

Continued strong shear, intrusions of dry air, and land interaction
with Baja California should cause Raymond to lose strength during
the next day or two. The official forecast shows Raymond moving
into mainland Mexico in 36 to 48 hours, but it is possible
that Raymond dissipates or degenerates into a remnant low before
then. Regardless of how long Raymond survives, heavy rainfall is
expected to spread into portions of Mexico and the Southwest U.S.
this weekend and early next week. See the Key Messages below for
more details.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, and along portions
of Baja California Sur on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of
additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 20.2N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 21.8N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 23.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 26.7N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 29.3N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

...RAYMOND TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES




Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

The satellite presentation of Raymond has deteriorated since the
previous advisory, with the cyclone continuing to be affected by
moderate easterly shear, analyzed to be around 18 kt by UW-CIMSS. A
recent scatterometer pass was helpful in identifying the center
position and indicated a peak wind vector of 35 kt. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were
3.0/45 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively, while the objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 32 to 39 kt. Considering these data
and accounting for potential undersampling in the scatterometer
winds, the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt for this
advisory.

Raymond continues to move quickly northwestward, or 310 degrees at
14 kt. A turn toward the north is expected later today as the
cyclone moves between a longwave trough over the southwestern United
States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico. This
general motion is forecast to continue through the weekend, with
Raymond dissipating over the higher terrain of northern Mexico by
late Sunday. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly
westward during the next 12 hours to account for a delayed northward
turn, and it remains very close to the previous prediction
thereafter.

Raymond will continue to be influenced by moderate east to northeast
shear and a dry mid-level environment, while also interacting with
land, including mountainous terrain, during the next couple of days.
These factors should result in gradual weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for Raymond to weaken into a tropical
depression later today or tonight, and dissipate by late Sunday.
Regardless of how long Raymond survives, heavy rainfall is expected
to spread into portions of Mexico and the southwestern United States
this weekend through early next week. See the Key Messages below
for more details.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Las Islas Marias
for the next few hours, and in Baja California Sur beginning later
this morning.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal
sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of
higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of
additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 20.9N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 22.6N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 25.4N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.2N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
800 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

...RAYMOND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 109.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
800 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Raymond has continued to
deteriorate, rather rapidly, with barely any convection near the
center of the system. The overall circulation has become rather
ragged, and first-light visible imagery shows that the system was
further south and east than expected. Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB have come down due to the waning convection,
ranging between 30 and 35 kt. Given the recent satellite trends, the
initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.

The storm is now moving north-northwest at an estimated motion of
330/13 kt. A turn towards the north is expected later today as the
system rounds the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the
latest NHC forecast track is near the previous one, although
slightly to the right given the initial position adjustment.

Raymond will continue to deal with moderate wind shear, and a drier
more stable airmass throughout the forecast period. The system is
expected to continue to weaken during the next day or so. GFS
simulated IR shows that the center of Raymond may not regain
convection. The latest NHC forecast is for additional weakening, and
for the system to become post-tropical in about a day and
dissipating shortly after, although if latest trends continue this
could occur sooner than forecast.

Although the actual system may not survive beyond a day or so,
moisture associated with the larger envelope from Raymond will
support heavy rainfall into portions of northwestern Mexico and
the southwestern United States this weekend through early next
week.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Baja California Sur
beginning in the next few hours.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact sections of
northwestern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash
flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from
Raymond will bring the threat of additional heavy rains to portions
of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 21.5N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 23.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1200Z 26.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
1100 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

...RAYMOND WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 109.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Raymond Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 PM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

...RAYMOND FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...
...REMNANT MOISTURE TO BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 109.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




Tropical Depression Raymond Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025
200 PM MST Sat Oct 11 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows the low-level swirl of Raymond is
devoid of deep convection as wind shear and drier air take their
toll on the system. A 1600 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass depicts
satellite-derived winds of 27 kt, thus the downgrade of Raymond to
a depression at the intermediate advisory. With the system devoid
of convection it is too weak to classify with satellite intensity
estimates, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the
scatterometer data.

The system is moving north-northwest at an estimated motion of
335/12 kt. A turn to the north, towards Baja California Sur, is
anticipated later today, with the center of the system passing over
the peninsula later this evening and tonight. The NHC track
forecast is near the previous prediction.

Given that the system has not produced convection, it is on the
clock into transitioning to a post-tropical low later tonight.
Convection is not expected to return given the unfavorable
environment. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system continuing
to weaken, becoming a remnant low later tonight, and dissipating on
Sunday.

Although the actual system may not survive beyond Sunday, the
moisture associated with the larger envelope from Raymond will
support heavy rainfall, which could result in flash flooding, into
portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States
this weekend through early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 22.5N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 24.6N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly