NATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[MarioProtVI]

Really beginning to think Jerry never makes it to hurricane intensity given its sloppy nature even as shear is decreasing somewhat. BT has it down to 50 kt and I’m highly skeptical it strengthens 15 kt during the favorable conditions because of its ugly structure.

[cycloneye]

AL, 10, 2025101000, , BEST, 0, 176N, 611W, 50, 1006, TS

[bahamaswx]

Might be a naked swirl, but that is one big mean blob right now. Wouldn't want to be under all that rain.

[zhukm29]

[weeniepatrol]

H/T Tony Cristaldi for this absolute gem:

[Zonacane]

I don’t think Jerry has a defined low level center anymore.

[Kazmit]

Surely a new center will form under all that convection. The other one seems toast.

[hipshot]

Surely a new center will form under all that convection. The other one seems toast.

The center, if there is one, may be northwest of the convection but that mass of convection looks to be barreling through
the islands at about Guadeloupe. Hope they don't get too much rain.

[cycloneye]

Guadeloupe web cam.

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/es/webca ... intes.html

St Marteen cam.

https://www.mahobeachcam.com/

[wxman57]

Tropical waves typically produce tropical storm force wind and very heavy rain. Jerry looks like a wave now. I don't think NHC will downgrade it if they think it may survive.

[msbee]

Jerry basically has been a nonevent so far on St. Maarten. Businesses have closed, and the airport is closed, and but the tropical storm warning has been discontinued. We are still under a flood watch. And there’s a small craft warning, as seas are rough.
At noon at the airport, there were winds from the SSE at 21 mph, gusting to 33 MPH.
We have had only light rain showers.

[cycloneye]

Jerry basically has been a nonevent so far on St. Maarten. Businesses have closed, and the airport is closed, and but the tropical storm warning has been discontinued. We are still under a flood watch. And there’s a small craft warning, as seas are rough.
At noon at the airport, there were winds from the SSE at 21 mph, gusting to 33 MPH.
We have had only light rain showers.

Thanks Barbara for the report that all has gone fine there.

[Sciencerocks]

[al78]

Not forecast to strengthen at all now. Back to 2025 hurricane season business as usual.

[Kazmit]

Not forecast to strengthen at all now. Back to 2025 hurricane season business as usual.

A true boom or bust season.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Not forecast to strengthen at all now. Back to 2025 hurricane season business as usual.

It initially appeared as if it would flourish as it recurved in the subtropics but now that's looking like a stretch. Just a mess structurally, and conditions were evidently more hostile than originally thought.

[zhukm29]

Oof

[aspen]

This has got to be one of the biggest bust storms in recent memory. Maybe the only other this decade that really compares is Peter ‘21.

[zhukm29]

Funnily enough, Jerry is yet another storm to add to the 10L curse, where storms designated as 10L end up as wimpy underperforming systems more often than not (despite 10L typically happening during peak season). It seems like Jerry was doomed from the start after getting assigned its number...

(Of course, not every 10L has been a failure, but it's the number that has the worst luck this century when it comes to strong storms. Interestingly enough, the most notable 10Ls in recent years have also been "I" storms, and the infamous "I" curse definitely has precedence haha)

[MarioProtVI]

Not sure why NHC is holding onto advisories. Satellite and scatterometer data clearly show a broad elongated NW-SSE trough and no LLC. There’s no watches or warnings and this isn’t affecting Bermuda. It’s been dissipated since 12-15z this morning when recon found a broad trough.

Where’s Bones when you need him?