2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

Ngl, with storm after storm this year turning out to sea, it does feel somewhat odd to see some of these long-range models, especially the deepmind AI ones, showing a possible signal in the ECAR later this month. The absolute hotspot for activity this year has been the Sargasso Sea....but will this season manage to produce something noteworthy in the Caribbean or Gulf before the end? We shall see.

The last season with no TC in the Caribbean was 1997.

[Fancy1002]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

I’m pretty sure Karen will be taken by the East Coast storm in a few days so that will likely be L

Funnily enough neither of those 2 storms took the Karen name and instead that one way north east in the Atlantic did

Don’t rub it in lol

[Cachondo23]

Looks like CV season won’t end any time soon?

[Teban54]

Even though 6z GFS no longer has the 907 mb en route to Florida, it's still developing the wave, just that it recurves and hits Hispaniola instead as a 949 mb MH.

Notably, this means GFS has shown this exact development scenario (a wave tracking across MDR and developing near Eastern Caribbean) 3 runs in a row.

Tomas 2010 may be a good analog for the 18z and 6z runs.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Even though 6z GFS no longer has the 907 mb en route to Florida, it's still developing the wave, just that it recurves and hits Hispaniola instead as a 949 mb MH.

Notably, this means GFS has shown this exact development scenario (a wave tracking across MDR and developing near Eastern Caribbean) 3 runs in a row.

Tomas 2010 may be a good analog for the 18z and 6z runs.

https://i.postimg.cc/k52MDHvQ/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh66-384.gif

This is the wave that follows the current mdr AOI. This maybe a legit long term signal given there's pretty strong eps support as well, gotta see if it lasts.