NATL: JERRY - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Every season seems like it has to have that one storm that vastly underperforms early expectations, and this year looks like it's Jerry. At one point was expected to be a hurricane around now but instead it's very likely an open wave with no future.

[zhukm29]

What an ugly system...

[al78]

This has got to be one of the biggest bust storms in recent memory. Maybe the only other this decade that really compares is Peter ‘21.

It is up there with that disturbance that had a 90% chance of development earlier this year and ultimately didn't.

[Teban54]

This has got to be one of the biggest bust storms in recent memory. Maybe the only other this decade that really compares is Peter ‘21.

It is up there with that disturbance that had a 90% chance of development earlier this year and ultimately didn't.

Philippe 2023 was another big bust. It was expected to strengthen to a hurricane on several different occasions, but operationally it never went beyond 45 kt despite lasting almost 2 weeks. (Its intensity at some points were adjusted upwards in the TCR.)

[FrontRunner]

This has got to be one of the biggest bust storms in recent memory. Maybe the only other this decade that really compares is Peter ‘21.

Peter '21? Wasn't it always projected to stay a weak tropical storm?

[cycloneye]

From the 11 AM discussion:

There are strong indications this morning that Jerry may no longer
have a well-defined center of circulation. Although there is
obvious mid-level rotation in a small area of deep convection, low
cloud lines in visible satellite imagery suggest the system may
have degenerated into a surface trough of low pressure, which is
echoed by global model fields. We will continue advisories at the
moment, pending some ASCAT data which should provide some additional
clarity on the system's structure. Advisories could be discontinued
at any time if new data shows that Jerry has opened up into a
trough.

[aspen]

This has got to be one of the biggest bust storms in recent memory. Maybe the only other this decade that really compares is Peter ‘21.

Peter '21? Wasn't it always projected to stay a weak tropical storm?

Original model runs were quite aggressive with pre-Peter becoming a long-tracking MDR storm, but development kept getting pushed further and further back until it just ended up as a mediocre TS sliding by the islands.

[msbee]

Every season seems like it has to have that one storm that vastly underperforms early expectations, and this year looks like it's Jerry. At one point was expected to be a hurricane around now but instead it's very likely an open wave with no future.

I cant believe how many sources got it wrong. I live in St Maarten and every forecast for the Northern Leeward islands predicted heavy rain and possible tropical storm winds. I follow weather from a lot of different sources and they all said the same thing. Our island closed down everything, businesses, the airport, and then we waited. and waited.
Nothing! Nada! a little wind and even less rain. the seas were rough.
We expected the tail could cause us a heavy shower or two and possible localized flooding. Again, nothing!
There was a "weak" tropical wave that passed through a few days earlier that gave us at least two very heavy scary thunderstorms with heavy rain and micro bursts.. But Jerry? Nothing!
I have seen busts before, but this was the biggest bust ever considering all the ominous forecasts.
Not that I am complaining.

[cycloneye]

Breaking news= No longer a tropical storm per best track:

AL, 10, 2025101118, , BEST, 0, 270N, 637W, 40, 1006, DB

[cycloneye]

The final epilog:

Jerry does not have a well-defined center and has degenerated into a
trough

[Travorum]

Na-na-na-na, na-na-na-na, hey hey hey, goodbye. I’m guessing the TCR will move dissipation up a good amount.

Jerry is the failed version of Tammy ‘23. Both were October MDR storms that had models early on showing a potentially strong hurricane impacting the leeward islands, which later caved to a weaker storm that could strengthen as it recurves. The difference was Tammy managed to strengthen into a hurricane as it approached and made a run for MH status as it recurved (I’m personally of the belief that Tammy got above 100kts) while Jerry never got its act together and fizzled away.

[eastcoastFL]

This has got to be one of the biggest bust storms in recent memory. Maybe the only other this decade that really compares is Peter ‘21.

It is up there with that disturbance that had a 90% chance of development earlier this year and ultimately didn't.

I'm glad this year hasn't brought many major risks to land. The modeling and forecasting has had a down year.