WPAC: INVEST 96W

[Hayabusa]

96W INVEST 251012 1200 5.6N 158.0E WPAC

[Hayabusa]

GFS 06z makes this a TS within 72 hrs and tracks near Guam

[mrbagyo]

The position appears off - looping visible sat images back and forth kinda suggest the LLC is further west

[Hayabusa]

The position appears off - looping visible sat images back and forth kinda suggest the LLC is further west

Yeah looks off, JMA 06z has it at

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 05N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

JMA is now doing early dvorak analysis starting at 12z @ 5.16N 149.22E. JTWC might have to relocate later towards the convection.

[Hayabusa]

Euro AI now tracking towards Extreme Northern Luzon, previous runs were recurving away from the Philippines

[Hayabusa]

Euro 12z now develops it

[Hayabusa]

JMA is now doing early dvorak analysis starting at 12z @ 5.16N 149.22E. JTWC might have to relocate later towards the convection.

Relocated at 18z

96W INVEST 251012 1800 5.8N 148.6E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

JMA 18Z TD

WWJP27 RJTD 121800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 05N 148E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

Next name is Fengshen and local Philippine name Ramil.
A wonder why Fengshen wasn't retired given the number of casualties it caused.

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/122200Z-130600ZOCT2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951ZOCT2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 12OCT25 1800Z, TYPHOON 29W (NAKRI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N
138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTH OF CAMP FUJI, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTPN31 PGTW 122100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8NN
148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 507 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION
WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS
MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE WITH VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25 KTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER TIME, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF
LACKING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro AI makes landfall over Luzon

[Hayabusa]

FNV3 00Z