NATL: LORENZO - Tropcial Strom - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 97, 2025101200, , BEST, 0, 81N, 317W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, SPAWNINVEST, al762025 to al972025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal972025.dat

[Category5Kaiju]

Maybe not as strong, but it does look like this will end up as a Lorenzo with a very similar track to the 2019 version of the same name.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the first model runs show this making a loop back to the west after it goes north

[Sciencerocks]

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025


Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025


Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Teban54]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025


Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
An area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[TomballEd]

Looked better yesterday.

[Sciencerocks]

Looked better yesterday.

True, but it certainly has a well defined LLC exposed with 20-25 knots of south-southwesterly shear. Until this decreases I don't expect it to be able to stack convection over the LLC. So probably a sheared mess until it exits the MDR and moves above 20. This is pretty much what intensity models show..

I

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025


Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
small area of low pressure located about 900 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for further development of this system during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the middle part of this week while it moves to the west-northwest
then northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[zhukm29]

Has gales, looks close now to becoming a tropical storm.

[galaxy401]

Up to 70/80.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025


Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near and just east of
a small area of low pressure located more than 900 miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, recent satellite wind data
indicates the system is also producing tropical-storm force winds,
primarily to the east of its center. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more favorable for further development over the
next couple of days and a tropical storm is likely to form by the
early to middle portion of this week as the system moves
west-northwest to northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Subtrop]

AL, 12, 2025101306, , BEST, 0, 138N, 396W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 140, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, TRANSITIONED, alB72025 to al122025,

[Subtrop]

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1977648395880644858

[abajan]

AL, 12, 2025101306, , BEST, 0, 138N, 396W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 140, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, TRANSITIONED, alB72025 to al122025,

Whence did you get this info? The site I check is https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/ but its info isn't as up-to-date as I would like.

[AJC3]

AL, 12, 2025101306, , BEST, 0, 138N, 396W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 140, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, TRANSITIONED, alB72025 to al122025,

Whence did you get this info? The site I check is https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/ but its info isn't as up-to-date as I would like.

It was eventually updated when I checked after 5 AM.

[cycloneye]

Looking good. Teban54, it may get a few ACE points and the NATL pass the 100 mark and add a few more after that number.