2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Kazmit]

People are going to lose their **** over this GFS run.

[Kazmit]

Close enough, welcome back Hurricane Wilma.

[HURRICANELONNY]

You know one of these times the GFS will be remotely right this far out. Get Florida Soon=GFS

[Owasso]

18z run has a weaker trough which traps the system until another trough picks it up towards the end of the month. End result is stronger (921 v 923) and farther west. Definitely a crazy hour run and a run like that, that's 16 days out is as useful as scrap paper but Miami and the Key Islands end up getting the nasty side of a major hurricane. No thanks.

[chaser1]

The part i'm having a hard time swallowing is a briskly west (or WNW) motion MDR storm in middle to late October, that makes it as far westward as Jamaica, and then threatens Central America, Cuba, or Florida with a major h'cane. A potential threat to the Eastern Caribbean? Perhaps. Otherwise, it would darn near have to sneak into the Caribbean and then explode (rapidly deepen) west of 65W for me to buy into a W. Caribbean major threat.

[SouthFLTropics]

While certainly not a likely outcome given the time of year, it is most certainly not without precedent… we only need to look back to 2005 and see when Wilma hit South Florida.


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[otowntiger]

18z run has a weaker trough which traps the system until another trough picks it up towards the end of the month. End result is stronger (921 v 923) and farther west. Definitely a crazy hour run and a run like that, that's 16 days out is as useful as scrap paper but Miami and the Key Islands end up getting the nasty side of a major hurricane. No thanks.

actually the nasty side would be the NE side, into the Bahamas. It would have to pass to the west of Miami to get the ‘nasty’ or ‘dirty’ side in this case.

[Jr0d]

You know one of these times the GFS will be remotely right this far out. Get Florida Soon=GFS

Lol Get Florida Soon..i go with Give Florida a Storm.

This is probably the 100th time this season the GFS has a phantom storm going to Florida.

I will admit this time the long range Euro ensembles have a bit of a signal, but we will see if that hold in the days ahead.

I am seriously going to try to keep track of the GFS phantom doom storms it spits out next season. I really dont think my above estimation is an exaggeration.

As Joe Bastardi one said, "sometimes a blind squirrel finds a nut".

[Jr0d]

While certainly not a likely outcome given the time of year, it is most certainly not without precedent… we only need to look back to 2005 and see when Wilma hit South Florida.


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Hurricane Michelle in 2001 is another.

It is also when I heard Bastardi's blind nut comment as one of the models showed Michelle taking a track through Florida similar to how Wilma played out, in my opinion he was hyping that track a bit with the doom scenerio but it did eventually play out 4 years later.

Michelle was extremely devastating to Cuba so not something we want to see.

As I posted above, my confidence in the long range GFS doom storms is close to nil, at least this time the Canadian and Euro ensembles also have a signal.

[LarryWx]

0Z: huge disagreement
-Icon has very little
-UK dropped it after having it 3 runs
-CMC hits NE Caribbean and then recurves into Turks/Caicos
-GFS again has TCG in far S Caribbean then N through Haiti/Turks/Caicos

[Zonacane]

Figure out where a storm is going in October or November; challenge level [impossible]

[cycloneye]

This is very interesting. The AI Deepmind is overperforming NHC and HCCA consensus on track and a little less on intensity. The bottomline is Airtificial Intelligence when it comes to models is here to stay and dominante.

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1977938918826803265

[tomatkins]

This is very interesting. The AI Deepmind is overperforming NHC and HCCA consensus on track and a little less on intensity. The bottomline is Airtificial Intelligence when it comes to models is here to stay and dominante.

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1977938918826803265

We've had a pretty conventional season (the twin storm situation aside) - basically lots of fairly easy to forecast recurves with no land interaction that would seem like they would be the best case scenario for pattern matching.

[Nimbus]

1. It’s the same based on following the various upper vortices.

2. Based also on upper vortex, the 0Z Euro is close to a TD at the Lesser Antilles. But the sfc low itself is still weak then. However, soon after at 198 in E Caribbean pretty far S, a TD forms and moves WNW. This kind of resembles the UKMET though a little slower.

Edit: Then turns back almost due W and goes well S of Jamaica as a strengthening TS.

Edit: It then moves slowly W underneath a strengthening ridge in the direction of Honduras/Nicaragua at end of run at 947 mb. That general kind of track has occurred several times mid Oct and later in stark contrast to the CMC track. Details that far out are unimportant, regardless.

Would you mind posting a picture of the ending of the run if you can, or send a link. Tropical tidbits is really slow at getting the euro in.

If the environment is how I think it is, it will likely be heading north to north west from that ending point then north east

I can’t link it as it is paywalled. But I can tell you that H5 winds are clearly E to W underneath a strong (593 dm) H5 high covering entire Gulf and moving only slowly E. This is extremely speculative so far out but that setup tells me it, would hit Honduras/Nic border area within 48 hours similar to Mitch of 1998 on about the same date. Eventually though it could turn NW, N, and then NE if it survives land.

The Heat content in the Caribbean is still high in October as Mitch taught us years ago, back and forth that major tracked without the models having much of a clue even just 72 hours out.

[Teban54]

Fantasy-range 300+ hr GFS alert...

This is NOT Melissa.

[Teban54]

Could this be the one?

https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bwOvR.png
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bwOv6.png
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bwOvg.png
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bwOvi.gif

Turns out, it's indeed THE ONE.

What are we seeing here?

The wave that eventually became Melissa, when it first left Africa (and spent a long time traversing through the open Atlantic before actually developing into a TC in the Caribbean).

[Teban54]

GEFS may be back to its old tricks of showing lows in Western Caribbean (likely from CAGs). Whether they will verify is obviously unclear, but here are the last three runs at 240 hrs. (The 18z run isn't out yet.)



This is for entertainment only, but here's the end of the 6z run:



FWIW, 12z EPS does show some intermittent lows in the region:

[Category5Kaiju]

A ways out of course (mid-November), but the GFS long range has a system that seems to develop out of a CAG and gets pulled northward toward the Yucatán.

Season may not be quite over yet….

[Stormlover70]

A ways out of course (mid-November), but the GFS long range has a system that seems to develop out of a CAG and gets pulled northward toward the Yucatán.

Season may not be quite over yet….

it's the gfs.....long range...

[Teban54]

A ways out of course (mid-November), but the GFS long range has a system that seems to develop out of a CAG and gets pulled northward toward the Yucatán.

Season may not be quite over yet….

In addition to 18z as mentioned above, 0z and 6z GFS runs also show a CAG storm forming around the 10-day mark (November 13). It's weak on all three runs, likely due to proximity to land.

While it's not in the 16-day fantasy range, this is also a common bias of GFS.