2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Kazmit]

People are going to lose their **** over this GFS run.

[Kazmit]

Close enough, welcome back Hurricane Wilma.

[HURRICANELONNY]

You know one of these times the GFS will be remotely right this far out. Get Florida Soon=GFS

[Owasso]

18z run has a weaker trough which traps the system until another trough picks it up towards the end of the month. End result is stronger (921 v 923) and farther west. Definitely a crazy hour run and a run like that, that's 16 days out is as useful as scrap paper but Miami and the Key Islands end up getting the nasty side of a major hurricane. No thanks.

[chaser1]

The part i'm having a hard time swallowing is a briskly west (or WNW) motion MDR storm in middle to late October, that makes it as far westward as Jamaica, and then threatens Central America, Cuba, or Florida with a major h'cane. A potential threat to the Eastern Caribbean? Perhaps. Otherwise, it would darn near have to sneak into the Caribbean and then explode (rapidly deepen) west of 65W for me to buy into a W. Caribbean major threat.

[SouthFLTropics]

While certainly not a likely outcome given the time of year, it is most certainly not without precedent… we only need to look back to 2005 and see when Wilma hit South Florida.


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[otowntiger]

18z run has a weaker trough which traps the system until another trough picks it up towards the end of the month. End result is stronger (921 v 923) and farther west. Definitely a crazy hour run and a run like that, that's 16 days out is as useful as scrap paper but Miami and the Key Islands end up getting the nasty side of a major hurricane. No thanks.

actually the nasty side would be the NE side, into the Bahamas. It would have to pass to the west of Miami to get the ‘nasty’ or ‘dirty’ side in this case.

[Jr0d]

You know one of these times the GFS will be remotely right this far out. Get Florida Soon=GFS

Lol Get Florida Soon..i go with Give Florida a Storm.

This is probably the 100th time this season the GFS has a phantom storm going to Florida.

I will admit this time the long range Euro ensembles have a bit of a signal, but we will see if that hold in the days ahead.

I am seriously going to try to keep track of the GFS phantom doom storms it spits out next season. I really dont think my above estimation is an exaggeration.

As Joe Bastardi one said, "sometimes a blind squirrel finds a nut".

[Jr0d]

While certainly not a likely outcome given the time of year, it is most certainly not without precedent… we only need to look back to 2005 and see when Wilma hit South Florida.


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Hurricane Michelle in 2001 is another.

It is also when I heard Bastardi's blind nut comment as one of the models showed Michelle taking a track through Florida similar to how Wilma played out, in my opinion he was hyping that track a bit with the doom scenerio but it did eventually play out 4 years later.

Michelle was extremely devastating to Cuba so not something we want to see.

As I posted above, my confidence in the long range GFS doom storms is close to nil, at least this time the Canadian and Euro ensembles also have a signal.

[LarryWx]

0Z: huge disagreement
-Icon has very little
-UK dropped it after having it 3 runs
-CMC hits NE Caribbean and then recurves into Turks/Caicos
-GFS again has TCG in far S Caribbean then N through Haiti/Turks/Caicos