Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Zonacane]

Models have been going back and forth on this with the GFS in particular bombing this out. The wave itself looks very healthy coming off Africa, this will be a lengthy thread.

[zzzh]

00Z Google deepmind trended much stronger.

[LarryWx]

Models have been going back and forth on this with the GFS in particular bombing this out. The wave itself looks very healthy coming off Africa, this will be a lengthy thread.

Model support overall has dropped with the Icon, UK, and Euro dropping it. The CMC and GFS/GEFS though still have it. The EPS still has moderate support but now not til the SW Carib.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Models have been going back and forth on this with the GFS in particular bombing this out. The wave itself looks very healthy coming off Africa, this will be a lengthy thread.

Model support overall has dropped with the Icon, UK, and Euro dropping it. The CMC and GFS/GEFS though still have it. The EPS still has moderate support but not til the SW Carib.

I dunno if I'd say that the icon's dropped it, the latest 0z run seemed to be in the process of developing it in the Caribbean before the run ended.

[BobHarlem]

This year has had so many mixed model runs for MDR systems it's hard to believe anything until a TS develops. Euro op and AI not developing it is another strong signal nothing will probably happen. I'm cool with the low impact season though.

[LarryWx]

Models have been going back and forth on this with the GFS in particular bombing this out. The wave itself looks very healthy coming off Africa, this will be a lengthy thread.

Model support overall has dropped with the Icon, UK, and Euro dropping it. The CMC and GFS/GEFS though still have it. The EPS still has moderate support but not til the SW Carib.

I dunno if I'd say that the icon's dropped it, the latest 0z run seemed to be in the process of developing it in the Caribbean before the run ended.

Yes, 0Z finally starting to have TCG near end well into Car. I was referring to 6Z, which didn’t have a TCG through 120, when it would have been just E of the Car. For many days through the 6Z of yesterday, it had TCG well before the Car. So, regardless, Icon support has dropped sharply since 6Z of 10/13.
NHC TWO still no mention.

[SFLcane]

yea..

[ronjon]

12z GFS another hurricane Mitch. Gets down to 915 mb just south of Cuba and west of JAM. Last frame at 384 hrs has it slowly drifting N-NW impacting south coast of Cuba ready to cross into the FL straits. Yes I know pure entertainment at this range.

[LarryWx]

12Z:
-Icon similar to 0Z w/TD forming 168 far S Caribbean. Prior to yesterday’s 12Z, it had TCG well E of Caribbean

-UKMET no TCG thru 168, 2nd in a row; prior to these last 2, 3 runs in a row had TCG E of Car that then went into E Car

-CMC: 6th run in row w/TCG E of Car but weakest with lowest SLP 998/takes Georges-like track and weakens to <TD Cuba

-GFS 6th run in row of S Car TCG (before that was E of Car), which isn’t til 10/23-4. Turns N into C Cuba as MH 10/30

-Euro?

[zzzh]

12Z EC AIFS trended much weaker with the trade winds, allowing the wave to gain latitude and enter the Caribbean at ~14.5N. Though it still has it running into king TUTT which tears it apart. This ridging trend is definitely something to watch.

Edit: just noticed EC AIFS also trended weaker with the TUTT, likely a result of a stronger system.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: back with Car TCG 10/22 like 12Z 10/13 had; Mitch-like track into C Amer as TS; weakens to TD and emerges in B of C 10/29

[blp]

Euro trending stronger this run.

[LarryWx]

Euro trending stronger this run.

https://i.ibb.co/KR77LZp/4446fad1-80e3-4dd5-bb05-eedaf5e465e9.gif

But Euro strongest is TS vs 70 mb lower MH GFS

[blp]

Here is another view.

[blp]

Euro trending stronger this run.

https://i.ibb.co/KR77LZp/4446fad1-80e3-4dd5-bb05-eedaf5e465e9.gif

But Euro strongest is TS vs 70 mb lower MH GFS

Yes I edited my post. Land interaction otherwise would have ramped up to MH.

[cycloneye]

Ends the run at BOC.

[Steve H.]

Trick or treat?? Haven’t seen a Halloween storm since John Hope was at TWC.

[SFLcane]

Just gotta keep watching well see later this wk.

[caneman]

Euro trending stronger this run.

https://i.ibb.co/KR77LZp/4446fad1-80e3-4dd5-bb05-eedaf5e465e9.gif

But Euro strongest is TS vs 70 mb lower MH GFS

Yes I edited my post. Land interaction otherwise would have ramped up to MH.

So far out, any lifting North or avoiding the Yuc could still mean hurricane

[Fancy1002]

Ends the run at BOC.

https://i.imgur.com/4WQ4fBo.png

A developing storm entered the bay of Campeche in the first half of October. I know it’s highly unlikely but I’m getting flashbacks as a Floridian.