Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[SFLcane]

Stalled for 24 hrs south of Hispaniola. Now moving NW.

Starts development around 70w this run heads westward over Jamaica.

[SFLcane]

Has what appears to be a C5 just south of Cuba.

[SFLcane]

Stair stepping now nearing keys/sfl.

[zhukm29]

Has what appears to be a C5 just south of Cuba.

Pretty crazy the consistency in models this far out that we could potentially see our third C5 of the season.

[Fancy1002]

OK, it’s at the 330 hour mark, and I know it’s likely about to start turning north to northeast, but I’m just imagining what this form would be like if it continued moving northwest from this point

[WaveBreaking]

Now seemingly on the way to S Florida

[SFLcane]

Ready to obliterate SFL.. northern quad right over my weather station!

[WaveBreaking]

Have a feeling this thing is gonna slam into the east coast at the end of this run thanks to the trough

[SFLcane]

No need to get overly concerned at the moment it’s a long range computer model run but there’s a reason keys/sfl get hit more from the south in Oct then any month in the yr. Just something to watch for now.

[zhukm29]

Pretty catastrophic run from the 00z GFS, first stalling and dumping a ton of rain on Hispaniola and Jamaica, landfalling in Cuba as a C5, and then scraping the Miami area as a major hurricane. Most likely won't happen this way in reality, but kind of concerning that this signal is fairly consistent.

[WaveBreaking]

A devastating hurricane threatening the east coast while interacting with a lobe of the TPV that’s bringing snow to the Appalachians is classic 384-hour GFS.

[SFLcane]

Gefs ensembles still showing a strong signal.

[LarryWx]

0Z
-Euro slightly resembles Sandy almost to the exact day 13 years ago. It’s way out in fantasyland though meaning details unimportant.

-UK still may be too far out to have TCG on textual output/will look at maps to see if imminent at 168

-CMC still has TCG E of Windwards; weakens over Cuba

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from the western
Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 04N
to 13N between 21W and 30W.

[chaser1]

Now seemingly on the way to S Florida

https://i.imgur.com/xwHOm5t.png

Nawww, it'll never live a day over 78 (degrees west that is ).

[BobHarlem]

AI Models have backed off on this one quite a bit, this one is probably more likely to struggle or never develop than anything else. Far range GFS and euro are enough for it to be worth monitoring, but things aren't lining up much on the other indicators (euro and deep mind ensembles aren't enthusiastic at all) so ultimately I don't think much will happen with it. (Aka odds aren't in favor)

[kevin]

06z ICON has a closed low starting to form in the ECar at the end of its run (+120hr).

[GCANE]

Looks like something may develop in the Mid Caribbean mid to late next week.
Likely phasing a wave with a deep diving front.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 15N with axis near 26W,
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04N to 14N between 21W and 32W.

[caneman]

AI Models have backed off on this one quite a bit, this one is probably more likely to struggle or never develop than anything else. Far range GFS and euro are enough for it to be worth monitoring, but things aren't lining up much on the other indicators (euro and deep mind ensembles aren't enthusiastic at all) so ultimately I don't think much will happen with it. (Aka odds aren't in favor)

I wouldn't be sold bold as to say that. We're still 10 plus days out.