Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 147942
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2025 6:40 am

06z GFS does not go more west like 00z.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1761
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#62 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Oct 15, 2025 6:44 am

0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 147942
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#63 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2025 7:27 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

TomballEd
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1060
Age: 61
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:52 pm
Location: Spring/Klein area, not Tomball

Re: Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#64 Postby TomballEd » Wed Oct 15, 2025 7:31 am

Healthy looking for a wave near the Cabo Verdes in mid-October. Dry air to the N and westerly shear should hold it in check for now.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 147942
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#65 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2025 7:34 am

Zonacane wrote:Models have been going back and forth on this with the GFS in particular bombing this out. The wave itself looks very healthy coming off Africa, this will be a lengthy thread.


Looks like it will be a long one. Already 4 pages and it has not been lemoned by NHC.

Looking good as it continues to move westward.

Image

Image

Image
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10279
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#66 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 15, 2025 8:41 am

:sick:

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10279
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#67 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 15, 2025 8:50 am

1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10279
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#68 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 15, 2025 8:58 am

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4230
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#69 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Oct 15, 2025 9:00 am

If everything goes right (in the perspective of the ocean/atmospheric variables, that is), I'd give this potential system a non-zero chance of being 2025's "Big One."
3 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6822
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#70 Postby LarryWx » Wed Oct 15, 2025 9:08 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:If everything goes right (in the perspective of the ocean/atmospheric variables, that is), I'd give this potential system a non-zero chance of being 2025's "Big One."


Hopefully everything won’t go “right” or rather “wrong” from my perspective. Fortunately, everything going wrong to make this the “Big One” will be difficult. Even if it ends up being a storm and it has notable land impacts, there are so many other possibilities than it being the “Big One”, which hopefully will end up being one that’s in the past like Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto depending on perspective.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Oct 15, 2025 9:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10279
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#71 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 15, 2025 9:15 am

LarryWx wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:If everything goes right (in the perspective of the ocean/atmospheric variables, that is), I'd give this potential system a non-zero chance of being 2025's "Big One."


Hopefully everything won’t go “right” or rather “wrong” from my perspective. Fortunately, everything going wrong to make this the “Big One” will be difficult. Even if it ends up being a storm and it has notable land impacts, there are so many other possibilities than it being the “Big One”, which hopefully will end up being Erin, Gabrielle, or Humberto depending on perspective.


Hey Larry, as of now i don't see anything showing a protective ridge over florida hence why i watching this one with interest. If it finds its way into the NW caribbean it could be a problem. no hits on the conus this season but just takes 1 memorable one
1 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6822
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#72 Postby LarryWx » Wed Oct 15, 2025 9:39 am

SFLcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:If everything goes right (in the perspective of the ocean/atmospheric variables, that is), I'd give this potential system a non-zero chance of being 2025's "Big One."


Hopefully everything won’t go “right” or rather “wrong” from my perspective. Fortunately, everything going wrong to make this the “Big One” will be difficult. Even if it ends up being a storm and it has notable land impacts, there are so many other possibilities than it being the “Big One”, which hopefully will end up being Erin, Gabrielle, or Humberto depending on perspective.


Hey Larry, as of now i don't see anything showing a protective ridge over florida hence why i watching this one with interest. If it finds its way into the NW caribbean it could be a problem. no hits on the conus this season but just takes 1 memorable one


Don’t forget that Chantal was a direct TS hit with significant NC impacts, including record 24 hour rainfall amounts in C NC. For those folks, it was bad. Also, Erin lead to significant impacts especially on NC coast despite not being a landfall. Hopefully that’s it for Conus and that everything going wrong won’t happen and cause devastation and misery for anyone anywhere.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10279
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#73 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 15, 2025 9:46 am

LarryWx wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Hopefully everything won’t go “right” or rather “wrong” from my perspective. Fortunately, everything going wrong to make this the “Big One” will be difficult. Even if it ends up being a storm and it has notable land impacts, there are so many other possibilities than it being the “Big One”, which hopefully will end up being Erin, Gabrielle, or Humberto depending on perspective.


Hey Larry, as of now i don't see anything showing a protective ridge over florida hence why i watching this one with interest. If it finds its way into the NW caribbean it could be a problem. no hits on the conus this season but just takes 1 memorable one


Don’t forget that Chantal was a direct TS hit with significant NC impacts, including record 24 hour rainfall amounts in C NC. For those folks, it was bad. Also, Erin lead to significant impacts especially on NC coast despite not being a landfall. Hopefully that’s it for Conus and that everything going wrong won’t happen and cause devastation and misery for anyone anywhere.


Yea some impacts outside the cone with erin and chantal was a ts with lots of rainfall for sure but we have been spared direct impacts from a big one up till this point.
2 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5707
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#74 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 15, 2025 10:03 am

Im surprised that NHC hasn't tagged this as a 10%/30% lemon yet. Anyway, I do like the 6Z GFS solution. Seems very plausible
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10279
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#75 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 15, 2025 10:08 am

chaser1 wrote:Im surprised that NHC hasn't tagged this as a 10%/30% lemon yet. Anyway, I do like the 6Z GFS solution. Seems very plausible


hmm i think its still 1-2 days away from being tagged on the TWO if model signal holds up.
1 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6822
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#76 Postby LarryWx » Wed Oct 15, 2025 10:09 am

chaser1 wrote:Im surprised that NHC hasn't tagged this as a 10%/30% lemon yet. Anyway, I do like the 6Z GFS solution. Seems very plausible


No model is showing TCG within 48 hours. If it forms, many are suggesting it would be after 7 days. Thus I’d address it but put it at only 0%/20% to start.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 773
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#77 Postby Spacecoast » Wed Oct 15, 2025 10:11 am

06z DeepMind Ensemble (FNV3): Yellowish is Ens mean hitting near cozumel

Image

06z Graphcast Ensemble (GENC):

Image
0 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 664
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#78 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed Oct 15, 2025 10:46 am

Here is Google's Weather Lab run on the storm. Show's it coming in to the Caribbean and the curving in to Florida, looks like the typical tropical cyclone. Intensity wise well anything form a Tropical storm to a Cat 5, it's way to far out to be accurate.

Google Weather Lab Cyclone ML Model

Image
Image
1 likes   

Fancy1002
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 274
Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2022 3:47 pm

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#79 Postby Fancy1002 » Wed Oct 15, 2025 11:33 am

The sooner this is labeled an invest, the sooner we can get the hurricane models running.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4258
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands

#80 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 15, 2025 11:37 am

That’s a pretty big trough on the 12z GFS… looks like it may be enough to scoop this thing up and out of the Caribbean and across Hispaniola, hopefully before it has a chance to really ramp up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy and 65 guests