Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Fancy1002]

Here is Google's Weather Lab run on the storm. Show's it coming in to the Caribbean and the curving in to Florida, looks like the typical tropical cyclone. Intensity wise well anything form a Tropical storm to a Cat 5, it's way to far out to be accurate.

Google Weather Lab Cyclone ML Model

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/xq70/924/OD5rJG.png [/url]
[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/xq70/922/GGU1X1.png [/url]

Apparently, the AI models have done well this year, which makes this very concerning.

[Fancy1002]

Looks like CMC is finally getting in line and stops trying to kill it through a northern path, but I still see that trough coming in and going to pick it up near the end of the run.

[SouthFLTropics]

I’m getting Matthew vibes with this run of the GFS… not sure the trough is going to complete the job. Looks like it may get left behind.


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[GCANE]

Current GFS trend is forecasting a weaker storm and out-to-sea.

[TallyTracker]

This one is disturbing. I wish it would just develop now and pull a Jerry and Lorenzo and gas out in the MDR. The likelihood of this getting into the Caribbean with increasingly favorable conditions is not good. No one should let their guard down yet with this one.

Another thing I’ve noticed in recent years is patterns setting up a month later than normal. For instance we had Hurricane Rafael as a westward moving Cat 3 in the Gulf before shear and dry air took it out. With La Niña setting in, we could see some abnormal track possibilities. Very speculative and I am NOT a pro, but we should all be on guard.

[cycloneye]

2:15 PM TWD:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Tropical Wave extends along 26W, from 05N to 15N, moving west
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 04.5N to 14N between 24W and 32W.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Current GFS trend is forecasting a weaker storm and out-to-sea.

I wouldn't consider a major hurricane striking Haiti as "out to sea."

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

At this point moving WNW.

[blp]

Euro back to central america.

[cycloneye]

After it moves to Belize, it turns north thru the Yucatán Penninsula and emerges in the gulf. Then turns NE towards Florida Penninsula.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro run ends here.

[blp]

Classic October track.

[SFLcane]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed68a9b433979f0560210d64df31a738ee1d33aae643c08deff91c532b2c26f7.gif

12z eps is all into wilma 2.0 for the most part.

[blp]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed68a9b433979f0560210d64df31a738ee1d33aae643c08deff91c532b2c26f7.gif

12z eps is all into wilma 2.0 for the most part.

That is my fear if you split the difference between the models it will probably stay over water and be a nightmare.

[blp]

UKmet 12z

[SFLcane]

12z eps..

[NDG]

It took a whole 24 hrs for Derek Ortt to recognize the high chances of development in the Caribbean from global models agreeing after saying yesterday that most likely this was going to be a ghost storm.

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1978523872958783525

[cycloneye]

AI Deep Mind at 12z is Gulf of Honduras heavy.

[ronjon]

12z Euro with hurricane into Tampa Bay. Of course 14 days away so fantasy at this point. Increasing signals however for something to develop in the central or western Caribbean from the globals.