Texas Fall 2025

[cheezyWXguy]

The NAM shows the first 40's of the season this weekend. Better late than never I guess...

https://i.ibb.co/G3N6Bj3Q/namconus-T2m-scus-47.png

It’s also more enthusiastic about rain chances for the northern half of the state on Saturday with a narrow squall line moving through. If future runs hold this output/parameter space it could be enough for a westward expansion of the slight risk but I’m not holding my breath yet

[cstrunk]

The NAM shows the first 40's of the season this weekend. Better late than never I guess...

https://i.ibb.co/G3N6Bj3Q/namconus-T2m-scus-47.png

It’s also more enthusiastic about rain chances for the northern half of the state on Saturday with a narrow squall line moving through. If future runs hold this output/parameter space it could be enough for a westward expansion of the slight risk but I’m not holding my breath yet

The 18z NAMNST shows a decent squall line through the northern half of the state. The 12z Euro seems to support this. That's encouraging.

[Brent]

Right? I'm so tired of this pattern

And like we should have been stepping down earlier than this

Maybe it's good we don't waste the cold now and save it for winter(even that is a huge question mark I've still seen some horrible analogs) but yikes otherwise

I'm just hoping we get one good storm at this point

Maybe up there it’s been different, but down here for the past several years now I don’t recall any significant cooldowns till late October. Mid 80’s to lower 90’s have been pretty common here in October for several years now from what I can recall.

I think it is more the persistence that has bothered most. Even last year and the warm Octobers around this period of mid October DFW would typically see upper 40s come into play at least. Nowhere close for the foreseeable future, and not in mid October. It's the sustained with no breaks which is taxing if you're expecting at least some relief, even in precipitation cooled days.

Yup like last year we already had a frost by now

That's my point yeah it warms back up but I've never found a stretch like this in October going back to the 70s at least where its just relentlessly above normal for weeks with no end in sight. Many of them even had a front like this weekend in late September when the averages are warmer. Like this front isn't even news this late other than the fact there hasn't been one

Heck in 2011 even in that horrible summer we had 40s right after Labor Day! 2012 had the earliest freeze ever by now and that summer had the hottest day ever on the mean here I think. Maybe it's a thing because summer wasn't that bad?? I dunno

I do feel more confident this may finally be a cooler for real change(maybe we'll skip the warming back up too much other than Monday) but again really the bigger problem is how dry it's getting again. Flash drought is becoming a problem

[Stratton23]

The reason i believe we might see cooler weather ahead as well as better chances for rain is because models are forecasting the NAO to stay strongly negative , and its causing a lot of chaos on the models, storm systems are getting stuck because of that block not allowing things to clear fast from west to east, Euro and GFS show this as well as the potential for much cooler air around halloween

[rwfromkansas]

The reason i believe we might see cooler weather ahead as well as better chances for rain is because models are forecasting the NAO to stay strongly negative , and its causing a lot of chaos on the models, storm systems are getting stuck because of that block not allowing things to clear fast from west to east, Euro and GFS show this as well as the potential for much cooler air around halloween

Thank heavens. I have been trying not to complain much because we had a gorgeous end of summer. But, I want some friggin rain again even more than I want cooler weather.

[snownado]

Tomorrow's going to annoy the heck out of me, because I know any severe storms will only initiate just to the east of DFW.

[rwfromkansas]

Tomorrow's going to annoy the heck out of me, because I know any severe storms will only initiate just to the east of DFW.

That is what SPC says even though some earlier modeling was hopeful. I haven't checked, but from reading I think it's going back east again. Shocker.

[cheezyWXguy]

Tomorrow's going to annoy the heck out of me, because I know any severe storms will only initiate just to the east of DFW.

Honestly this is probably correct given how things usually go. There’s still a chance though. Looking at the nam and hrrr, shear/instability/lack of capping before frontal passage in dfw look about as good as they do farther east a bit later when the stronger storms form out there. This makes me think the key factor would be a question of when sufficient forcing arrives, which I assume the models show arriving just after the front makes it through dfw. If so, it seems like a small deviation (slightly slower transit or faster arrival of forcing) would set things off earlier/farther west. At least, that’s what I’m hoping for.

[mmmmsnouts]

I can do without the severe weather but just some rain would be great.

[rwfromkansas]

When I moved to DFW I was excited that it would rain a lot more than Midland/West TX. But I should have moved to Texarkana, apparently. Lol.

[captainbarbossa19]

Hi everyone! It's been a while. I've been working hard getting our weather company going. We recently launched an app on Apple and Google Play which is slowly gaining traction. We actually hit #5 briefly on Apple in the weather category. Weather has definitely been boring lately. Need the jet stream to dig south more to really get us into a more favorable pattern for rain and cooler air. I think we will see some changes as we get closer to November though. Seeing subtle hints of a potential pattern change. It would be nice to get some more active weather because that would reinforce the need for meteorologists in dynamic weather.

You’re just gonna waltz back in here, mention an app you’ve been working on, float that it’s available for download, and not even say what the name is?

For shame.

I don’t know captainbarbossa personally but based on location, my guess is it’s the Gulf Coast Weather Solutions app. I don’t think that is Greg Bostwick, but might be his son Lucas, who is also a met now. They led the team that developed the app.

You are very good with your deduction skills! Yes, the app is Gulf Coast Weather Solutions! We are planning to embed a live stream into the app soon for our 24/7 live coverage. Here is a link to our YouTube channel if anyone wants to check out our company. https://www.youtube.com/@GulfCoastWX

[cstrunk]

When I moved to DFW I was excited that it would rain a lot more than Midland/West TX. But I should have moved to Texarkana, apparently. Lol.

Year in, year out, Texarkana seems to hit the jackpot in terms of rain and storms.

System coming in from the north? It'll hit Texarkana before dying out farther south.

System coming in from the west? Definitely hugging the Red River with capping issues farther south but nailing Texarkana.

System coming in from the south/west? If there's capping farther south/west, there's enough forcing near Texarkana. If we're lucky enough south and west to cash in, you betcha it's streaming north and east to hit Texarkana as well.

Summertime pop up storms struggling? Texarkana is on the edge of the ring of fire and cashing in.

Cold air/winter precip event coming in from the north? Ouachita mountains dam it up and make it hard to get very far south, but Texarkana is close enough for the magic to happen.

It never fails.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the step down is real now. At least normal feels great!

[Brent]

Looks like the step down is real now. At least normal feels great!

Yeah other than Monday I don't see anything crazy here(and even Monday is well down in the 50s to start not even remotely close to what today was).. Yeah its pretty boring once this front tomorrow clears out but at least it's not endless heat and record highs anymore

[Stratton23]

Very impressive - EPO/ AO/ NAO triple blocking signature on the GFS, significantly cooler on halloween in texas

[Brent]

Very impressive - EPO/ AO/ NAO triple blocking signature on the GFS, significantly cooler on halloween in texas

GFS has snow in West Texas at the very end of the run(weekend after Halloween timeframe)

Euro has some snow in NW Arkansas in the same timeframe

[HockeyTx82]

Very impressive - EPO/ AO/ NAO triple blocking signature on the GFS, significantly cooler on halloween in texas

GFS has snow in West Texas at the very end of the run(weekend after Halloween timeframe)

Euro has some snow in NW Arkansas in the same timeframe

West Texas? Why does it always snow south of DFW?

[Brent]

Very impressive - EPO/ AO/ NAO triple blocking signature on the GFS, significantly cooler on halloween in texas

GFS has snow in West Texas at the very end of the run(weekend after Halloween timeframe)

Euro has some snow in NW Arkansas in the same timeframe

West Texas? Why is does it always snow south of DFW?

Lol meanwhile all the rain is east of us... just like all the cold air so far in this sorry excuse of a "fall"

[Fifty Rock]

Very impressive - EPO/ AO/ NAO triple blocking signature on the GFS, significantly cooler on halloween in texas

GFS has snow in West Texas at the very end of the run(weekend after Halloween timeframe)

Euro has some snow in NW Arkansas in the same timeframe

West Texas? Why does it always snow south of DFW?

West Texas has about 1,000 plus feet of elevation on DFW. That can make all the difference.

[Ntxw]

There is some consensus now of a below normal period in the ensembles near halloween and the opening days of November, that is different. 2 weeks out so caveats, but at least there is growing support to build the case.