NATL: MELISSA - Models

[IsabelaWeather]

Latest GFS run has it running into the DR and stalling, dropping feet of rain.

[Kazmit]

Latest GFS run has it running into the DR and stalling, dropping feet of rain.

Then reforming as a gargantuan Sandy-style storm over the Bahamas.

[jhpigott]

Latest GFS run has it running into the DR and stalling, dropping feet of rain.

Then reforming as a gargantuan Sandy-style storm over the Bahamas.

The last few runs of the deterministic GFS have been ticking west

[jhpigott]

12z CMC ends in a precarious position for western Cuba and SFL with the trough approaching

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025101812&fh=6

[USTropics]

That's what we call Multiple Vorticity Disorder on the 12z GFS run:


That's quite the difference from the previous 06z run, where we had a dipole Central American Gyre (CAG) scenario centered over the central Caribbean:


Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF keeps the CAG over...well..Central America


The 12z GFS ensembles are significantly spread as well:


Compared to 00z EMCWF ensembles:


It is CAG season, so definitely keeping tabs on how this unfolds. Typically the central point of the CAG does not lift as far north as the GFS is suggesting, and the ECMWF ensembles (+ the AI ensembles support) make me inclined to believe this could potentially be developing further south than the GFS is suggesting at 12z.

Something getting pulled north into Cuba, Jamaica, or Hispaniola is definitely a possibility if something is able to organize and deepen. Based on the synoptic agreement between the major ensemble models (GFS, ECMWF, and CMC) I don't see the potential for a system to make it as far west as the GOM (they're all showing a significant shortwave moving eastward during this timeframe):

GFS Ensembles


ECMWF Ensembles


CMC Ensembles

[cycloneye]

12z EURO develops after stalling near Nicaragua.

[LarryWx]

12Z UK: Nicaragua

[zzzh]

There is still a huge split

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has huge gyre TC stalling over Hispaniola and if that occurs, it may be probably a top 5 humanitarian disaster.

[IsabelaWeather]

18z GFS has huge gyre TC stalling over Hispaniola and if that occurs, it may be probably a top 5 humanitarian disaster.

https://i.imgur.com/pY5POcs.gif

That would be insane, but I dont think thats really possible, is it? Seems too odd.

[cycloneye]

Over 75 inches of rain for PR and DR.

[Stormlover70]

Over 75 inches of rain for PR and DR.

https://i.imgur.com/NOj6q3D.png

worst case scenario. Not likely.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Euro might actually be correcting towards the GFS - it's showing a more consolidated system in the medium range and appears to be slowly ticking E from the SW part of the Caribbean to the Central Caribbean.

[zzzh]

18Z ECAI also trended stronger in short term. The track is similar to GFS.

[Fancy1002]

It looks like the hurricane models aren’t going to be very helpful for the next couple days.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Over 75 inches of rain for PR and DR.

https://i.imgur.com/NOj6q3D.png

Thats 6 1/4 FEET of rain...wow

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Over 75 inches of rain for PR and DR.

https://i.imgur.com/NOj6q3D.png

Saw this. Unreal

[Fancy1002]

Over 75 inches of rain for PR and DR.

https://i.imgur.com/NOj6q3D.png

At least that 75 inches isn’t over Haiti, I know it’s still bad, but the Dominican has better infrastructure.

[tropicwatch]

Over 75 inches of rain for PR and DR.

https://i.imgur.com/NOj6q3D.png

Thats 6 1/4 FEET of rain...wow

13 days out, I would put a big grain of salt with it.