2025 WPAC Season

[Hayabusa]

Euro AI and GFS show development in a week from now

[Hayabusa]

Himawari-9 is down for 4 hours now since 1540z. I wonder how JMA did their 18z analysis on Nakri?
On a related note, PAGASA also relies on Himawari data using JMA's SATAID to make their operational analysis and products, although they have access to KMA's GK2A satellite, the software is not as user friendly (especially for realtime usage) as SATAID.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/en/op ... fo_H8.html

[mrbagyo]

Euro AI and GFS show development in a week from now

[Hayabusa]

Euro AI showing some possible tropical development north of extreme Northern Luzon and then in the long-range coming November showing also possible tropical development over the Philippine Sea, as the MJO moves over the Maritime Continent.

[Hayabusa]

Euro AI showing some possible tropical development north of extreme Northern Luzon and then in the long-range coming November showing also possible tropical development over the Philippine Sea, as the MJO moves over the Maritime Continent.

Intense typhoon striking the Philippines from the GFS, while Euro AI over the open waters, previously the latter has a TC also hitting the Philippines.

[Hayabusa]

12z FNV3

[JoshwaDone]

12z FNV3
https://i.imgur.com/CTdCFem.png

It's really November when these storms are now moving across Southern Luzon and/or Visayas. 12z GFS showing first super storm striking Central Luzon while the second one is a fish storm.

[mrbagyo]

Euro AI and the Google ensemble models are increasingly aligning on a similar trajectory towards the central Philippines. Tracing back the vorticity of the phantom model storm suggests that the incipient system is likely to originate from the area of disorganized convection near the Marshall Islands. However, with still about 8 to 10 days to go, nothing is set in stone yet.

[mrbagyo]

Almost all numerical models are bullish for the early November WPAC system.
12z Euro's simulated IR at 240 hrs

[doomhaMwx]

00Z EURO and GFS 10 days out.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest ECMWF bottoms out to about 900 mb! Could be one of the strongest runs I've seen, probably since Dolphin 2015

[Hayabusa]

FNV3 developing two TCs like the Euro AI
Latest 06z has 183 kts max wind from the 2nd TC

[Hayabusa]

Euro 12z weaker but still a strong 941 mb typhoon before landfall and is still sticking to a one TC development only unlike the AI models.

[Hayabusa]

12z FNV3, still a 180+kts max

[mrbagyo]

theres another area of convergence south of Kwajalein

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro 00z now just an STS