NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands is producing a large and persistent area of showers
and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
the system still lacks a closed circulation, but is producing winds
of 30 to 35 mph north and east of the wave axis. Environmental
conditions are expected to limit development during the next couple
of days as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph,
bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands
beginning later today and continuing through Monday morning. By the
middle to latter part of the week, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form while the system slows down over the central
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025


Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave currently located near the Windward Islands is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system
moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph into the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next
day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave. The system
is then expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during
the middle portion of the week, where environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could
from over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portion
of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2025101912, , BEST, 0, 126N, 597W, 30, 1009, DB

[LarryWx]

12z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2025101912, , BEST, 0, 126N, 597W, 30, 1009, DB

https://i.imgur.com/WdQzo3d.png

So, this is showing a 1009 low a little S of Barbados as of 12Z. Comparing to the latest model runs’ 12Z strength/position:

-0Z CMC hour 12 is the only one close to that strength (~1010) and its position is almost dead on that

-6Z Euro/Euro AI/GFS/Icon/0Z UKMET have it only down to ~1012 as of 12Z

-6Z Euro/Euro AI have it right at Barbados or a little too far north; it’s hard to tell the exact position of the others due to it being so weak

[wzrgirl1]

Yes, that is why I think it’s going to develop later and go further west and not be as influenced to make that northeast sharp turn so quickly. But the models will shift back-and-forth so many times at least for the next few days.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1979890716269789694

[Ubuntwo]

Low level rotation much more evident this morning. Some hints at light westerlies in the low cloud lines, though they may not yet be at sfc. Only the Euro is close to depicting a vort this tight and well-defined, though it was slightly too far north.

[cycloneye]

For the members who were asking, about when will the first mission to 98L be? It is posted that it will be on Tuesday afternoon. You can follow the data from the missions at the 98L recon thread.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025


Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Recent satellite wind data and surface observations indicate the
tropical wave currently crossing the Windward Islands still lacks a
closed circulation. However both radar and satellite images indicate
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to show
signs of organization. The system is still moving quickly westward
at 20 to 25 mph, which could limit development over the next day or
so, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable as it slows down in the central Caribbean Sea by the
middle of this week. A tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week in the central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected to continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward
Islands through Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[SouthFLTropics]

I’m watching 98L with a very close eye considering that it will likely affect a large number of people but also due to the fact that my wife and I are supposed to leave Miami onboard Symphony of the Seas on the 29th and head to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Based on the models I’m guessing we may get rerouted.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[IsabelaWeather]

Honestly it looks real good right now, looks like some banding features are starting to show up, even at DMIN

[cycloneye]

Sadly, agree 100% with Webb.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1979950350066176445

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like this could be a seriously nasty hurricane for the Central Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track. AL, 98, 2025101918, , BEST, 0, 127N, 614W, 30, 1009, DB

[TomballEd]

18z Best Track. AL, 98, 2025101918, , BEST, 0, 127N, 614W, 30, 1009, DB

https://i.imgur.com/IRAN7Tn.png

Calm winds in Grenada? Next step would be westerlies, no?

[cycloneye]

Bad weather this afternoon in Trinidad and Tobago, but will improve tonight.

 https://x.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1980010595522072991



 https://x.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1980013439092199546



 https://x.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1980014758607667465

[MGC]

I’m watching 98L with a very close eye considering that it will likely affect a large number of people but also due to the fact that my wife and I are supposed to leave Miami onboard Symphony of the Seas on the 29th and head to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Based on the models I’m guessing we may get rerouted.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We are leaving from New Orleans on Nov 1 to Western Carb. Lets hope this mess is gone by then.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy, the jacuzzi.

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1980020726028509423

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Outrageous convection in the last few hours. Really blowing up this evening.

[Hurricane2022]

Outrageous convection in the last few hours. Really blowing up this evening.

Quick development like that one forecasted by GFS? It would be an apocalypse for everyone between Haiti and PR.