Woofde wrote:GCANE wrote:A lot of shear-induced convection.
Models can't make up their mind which way this will go.
Will it spin up from some hot towers and develop quickly due to high Oceanic Heat Content and move north as GFS forecasts.
OR, will it stay weak due to shear and move into the West Caribbean and develop later as Euro calls it?
A tough call.
Stay tuned.
Yeah the shear is definitely driving things right now. We've seen many waves that temporarily collapse after shearing stops.
My bet is on the Euro/ICON/CMC solution with later development in the Central/Western Caribbean. Too much shear in it's
immediate future for a 3 day development like the GFS shows.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20251020/37474556359b09a88b19eb7becdb43c5.jpg
Looks to be the case so far. Anything stronger than a weak/sheared TC is probably still a few days out at the very least:
https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1980255628892237937