NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (30/70)

#61 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:25 am

Woofde wrote:
GCANE wrote:A lot of shear-induced convection.
Models can't make up their mind which way this will go.
Will it spin up from some hot towers and develop quickly due to high Oceanic Heat Content and move north as GFS forecasts.
OR, will it stay weak due to shear and move into the West Caribbean and develop later as Euro calls it?
A tough call.
Stay tuned.


Yeah the shear is definitely driving things right now. We've seen many waves that temporarily collapse after shearing stops.
My bet is on the Euro/ICON/CMC solution with later development in the Central/Western Caribbean. Too much shear in it's
immediate future for a 3 day development like the GFS shows.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20251020/37474556359b09a88b19eb7becdb43c5.jpg


Looks to be the case so far. Anything stronger than a weak/sheared TC is probably still a few days out at the very least:

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1980255628892237937

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (50/80)

#62 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:25 am

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (50/80)

#63 Postby MGC » Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:34 am

98L has quite a bit of vigorous convection this morning but the disturbance is not vertically stacked. Conditions should become more favorable in a day or two. Could be a significant TC if it slowly moves as some of the models depict......MGC
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (50/80)

#64 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:44 am

Based on the best track positions during the past 12 hours it is averaging 21.4 mph, still very fast IMO for any quick development especially moving into the usual area of fast low level jet south of Hispaniola.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (30/70)

#65 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:51 am

GCANE wrote:A lot of shear-induced convection.
Models can't make up their mind which way this will go.
Will it spin up from some hot towers and develop quickly due to high Oceanic Heat Content and move north as GFS forecasts.
OR, will it stay weak due to shear and move into the West Caribbean and develop later as Euro calls it?
A tough call.
Stay tuned.


Or there’s the 3rd main model option, that of many UKMET runs in a row (including today’s 0Z) that never get it much more organized than it is now due to a splitting off of the main H5 vorticity, which turns sharply north in the E Car leaving behind just a weak surface low. That weak low then continues westward in the S Caribbean with the run then ending (168) with just a 1007 low near the Nicaragua coast underneath a solid ridge that’s likely about to dissipate.

The JMA had been similar though the latest run (yesterday’s 12Z) developed it into a 1004-5 TD to possibly low end TS that skims the N coast of Honduras to S Belize at 192 (end).

Interestingly, the 0Z CMC was kind of similar to the 12Z JMA though it survives Honduras and then turns NE as a TS over WC Cuba and then the NW Bahamas.

We’ll see whether or not this is one of those cases of the UKMET being genesis shy/too weak due to the splitting of energy. It (along with the JMA for the most part) has a good chance to either bust badly or score a coup.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (50/80)

#66 Postby TomballEd » Mon Oct 20, 2025 9:57 am

Quick check of CIMSS- the low level and mid-level vorticities are pretty close to each other, or the shear would seem to be tilting 98l less than I would expect.

I see no obvious west winds S of the system on satellite.

Image
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (50/80)

#67 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 20, 2025 9:59 am

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (50/80)

#68 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Oct 20, 2025 10:09 am

This reminds me of 99L in July (again) where the system looks a lot better than it really is, especially if the low level stays out ahead of the convection on the southwest side. I still don't expect much from this, but the rain still could be a problem regardless. Recon tomorrow will help. It's in that area where it could go either way (very warm water in the Caribbean), but the 2025 effect tells me we'll eventually see the naked swirl.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Mon Oct 20, 2025 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (50/80)

#69 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 20, 2025 10:37 am

This makes since now Curacao is now reporting NW & WNW winds.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1980296935119720613

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (50/80)

#70 Postby zzzh » Mon Oct 20, 2025 11:00 am

Image
Not quite there yet. I also don't see westerlies on visible satellite
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (50/80)

#71 Postby caneseddy » Mon Oct 20, 2025 12:00 pm

NDG wrote:This makes since now Curacao is now reporting NW & WNW winds.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1980296935119720613



Hmm, this may be lending credence to the more western based models (Icon, Euro, UKMet and Canadian) of keeping it weak until it gets into Central Caribbean rather than the GFS…

Something to keep an eye on
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (50/80)

#72 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Oct 20, 2025 12:08 pm

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/U6c1spl.png
Not quite there yet. I also don't see westerlies on visible satellite


Same, but it’s very very close to starting to develop those westerlies.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (70/90)

#73 Postby Buck » Mon Oct 20, 2025 12:36 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025


1. Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Recent satellite wind data indicate the tropical wave located over
the eastern Caribbean Sea still lacks a closed circulation, but
continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms near and to the east of the wave axis. Compared to
yesterday, surface observations suggest the circulation is gradually
becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast
to become a little more conducive for development as the system
slows its forward motion. A tropical depression or storm is now
likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the central
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next
couple of days. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and
Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain
and flooding, strong winds, and rough surface later this week. For
addition information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (70/90)

#74 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Oct 20, 2025 2:09 pm

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (70/90)

#75 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2025 5:34 pm

There could be a possibbility that NHC issue advisories as PTC. What do the members think about that?

Image
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (70/90)

#76 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Oct 20, 2025 6:00 pm

I am confused. I thought Florida was protected from this storm. All the models are showing or at least most of the models are showing that the storm will turn before Florida. Why did Rick Knabb on the weather channel just say Florida is still in play? Every single meteorologist on Twitter says that Florida is safe. :cry:
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (70/90)

#77 Postby Fancy1002 » Mon Oct 20, 2025 6:11 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:I am confused. I thought Florida was protected from this storm. All the models are showing or at least most of the models are showing that the storm will turn before Florida. Why did Rick Knabb on the weather channel just say Florida is still in play? Every single meteorologist on Twitter says that Florida is safe. :cry:

A few ensemble members have it making a close pass to South Florida, and a couple members going into Florida directly. It’s also too early to tell which group will end up being correct about whether it develops early and heads in the direction of his Hispañola, or whether it develops later and head towards Cuba. It’s just too early to count Florida out completely. I would give it a 10% chance max of heading to South Florida at this point, but that could easily go up or down and you definitely shouldn’t ignore 10%.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (70/90)

#78 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 20, 2025 6:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:There could be a possibbility that NHC issue advisories as PTC. What do the members think about that?

https://i.imgur.com/C3gP6dl.gif


Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC)

A term used in NWS advisory products to describe a disturbance that is not yet a tropical cyclone, BUT which poses the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.

I think 11PM tonight is too soon. The GFS has TS winds on Hispaniola starting as early as 60 hours out. But other operationals are further out:

-CMC at ~72 hours (Jamaica)
-Icon at ~96 hours (Haiti)
-Euro at ~168 hours (Jamaica)
-JMA at ~180 hours (Nicaragua/Honduras)
-UKMET none

If other models were to start to go in the GFS direction by tomorrow and with it still not yet a TD but getting closer to one, there’d be a chance for a PTC tomorrow PM.
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon Oct 20, 2025 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#79 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Oct 20, 2025 6:29 pm

OK. Thank you so much for that explanation makes me feel a little bit better.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion (90/90)

#80 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2025 6:36 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025


Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A large area of showers and thunderstorms persists over the eastern
Caribbean Sea to the east of a tropical wave. The system still
appears to lack a closed surface circulation, but environmental
conditions are soon forecast to become more conducive for
development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to
form within the next day or two while the system slows its forward
motion over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC
Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor the progress of this
disturbance as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong
winds, and rough surf later this week. For additional information
on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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