NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

This is a very complicated forecast, I feel for the NHC.

I mentioned this the other day and no implying Melissa will be like Mitch but I was model watching then using the South Florida Water Management site which no longer shows models, but did then, and the models were a squashed spider.

Modeling has come a long way since 1998 but given the time of year I do see the similarities. Mitch was supposed to curve and go into the gulf but instead nose dived right into Central America and devastated that area. Also took the Windjammer Cruises ship the Fantome with it. The crew took the ship towards Roatan to try and miss the storm based on the forecast track and because Mitch didn't follow the forecast, they sailed right into the eye of the storm and were never seen again.

[cycloneye]

Josh says the chessboard is very complicated for him to decide where to go chasing.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1980783337963684006


.

[Category5Kaiju]

Earlier today, there was 25-30 knots of deep-layer shear over the center of Melissa. It looks like the models that showed the storm developing its own anticyclone/favorable pocket of shear, despite starting off in a region with unfavorable wind shear at the time, might be on to something.

[cycloneye]

Good thread from Webb explaing about the graveyard, where Melissa is now.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1980802786737680397



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1980803860349505718



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1980804950000300544

[wzrgirl1]

So here is my fear. Since we’ve been tracking the system, Florida was not even considered as a possibility for a hit it still isn’t. Nobody is mentioning it although now channel 7 news in South Florida did say that their hope is that the trough would steer it away from Florida: but I am worried that they are trying to downplay this so much for South Florida, as not to get the resident’s riled up that if South Florida does get a brush, and a brush by a significant storm could be devastating, that people will not take it serious because for so many days both the models were not showing a hit, and all the forecasters were downplaying it. So I guess what I’m trying to say is have a plan in place don’t panic and keep a watchful eye if you live in South Florida don’t ignore. That is all.

[SFLcane]

So here is my fear. Since we’ve been tracking the system, Florida was not even considered as a possibility for a hit it still isn’t. Nobody is mentioning it although now channel 7 news in South Florida did say that their hope is that the trough would steer it away from Florida: but I am worried that they are trying to downplay this so much for South Florida, as not to get the resident’s riled up that if South Florida does get a brush, and a brush by a significant storm could be devastating, that people will not take it serious because for so many days both the models were not showing a hit, and all the forecasters were downplaying it. So I guess what I’m trying to say is have a plan in place don’t panic and keep a watchful eye if you live in South Florida don’t ignore. That is all.

All about the angle for us in South Florida.

[WaveBreaking]

Convection’s starting to fire closer to the LLC now

[AutoPenalti]

It’s going to continue to race westward, at this point convection building will only dissipate with 20kts of shear.

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

This feels like a bootleg Matthew with how slow it’s gonna be meandering in the Caribbean. Not as strong of course, at least not yet…

With her barometric pressure dropping a couple more millibars, per the 6z Best Track, perhaps it's time for Jamaica to pull a Matthew on Melissa.

AL, 13, 2025102206, , BEST, 0, 140N, 735W, 45, 1001, TS...

Link: https://youtu.be/mdcsozmJ750

[al78]

Looking at the latest discussion/advisories from NHC, can someone explain why Haiti is under a hurricane watch whilst Jamaica is only under a tropical storm watch, even though the forecast track has the storm almost landfalling on the eastern tip of Jamaica as a hurricane and is some distance from Haiti through the next five days? I'd have thought the watches would have been the other way around with that forecast track.

[chaser1]

Looking at the latest discussion/advisories from NHC, can someone explain why Haiti is under a hurricane watch whilst Jamaica is only under a tropical storm watch, even though the forecast track has the storm almost landfalling on the eastern tip of Jamaica as a hurricane and is some distance from Haiti through the next five days? I'd have thought the watches would have been the other way around with that forecast track.

I thought the same thing. In spite of the storm's continued westward motion I can't help but think that they're half expecting a GFS- 'esque sudden turn to the north or NNE

[AJC3]

Looking at the latest discussion/advisories from NHC, can someone explain why Haiti is under a hurricane watch whilst Jamaica is only under a tropical storm watch, even though the forecast track has the storm almost landfalling on the eastern tip of Jamaica as a hurricane and is some distance from Haiti through the next five days? I'd have thought the watches would have been the other way around with that forecast track.

That's entirely up to the government of the impacted country. If I had to make an educated guess, Haiti is erring on the side of extreme caution. The forecast track (extreme slowdown in forward speed), intensity and "right sided" wind radii, altogether really only justified a TS watch for them (for now) at the time it was issued . It's hard to see any land (or even marine) area getting Hurricane force winds at T+48 hours from 03Z.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Looking at the latest discussion/advisories from NHC, can someone explain why Haiti is under a hurricane watch whilst Jamaica is only under a tropical storm watch, even though the forecast track has the storm almost landfalling on the eastern tip of Jamaica as a hurricane and is some distance from Haiti through the next five days? I'd have thought the watches would have been the other way around with that forecast track.

That's entirely up to the government of the impacted country. If I had to make an educated guess, Haiti is erring on the side of extreme caution. The forecast track (extreme slowdown in forward speed), intensity and "right sided" wind radii, altogether really only justified a TS watch for them (for now) at the time it was issued . It's hard to see any land (or even marine) area getting Hurricane force winds at T+48 hours from 03Z.

And I’m guessing that the hurricane watch mobilizes some resources that will be needed for the truly catastrophic amount of rain that is forecast. GFS shows totals over 40 inches. That is worse than any wind event.

[GCANE]

Anticyclone has formed just north of Panama.
Likely this will move closer to Melissa as high TPW air flows in from the E PAC thru Panama.
Please note that the high TPW air from the EPAC is converging along the mountains of Columbia and Melissa is in a good position to take advantage of that.
If the anticyclone repositions to the west of Melissa and Melissa tracks into it, it will likely set the stage for rapid intensification.
Let's see what happens.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... wg8shr.GIF
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 220600.png

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1980834252322382327

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1980716045070704728

[Kazmit]

The NHC mentioned a center reformation occurred to the NE in the latest discussion, but also moved the forecast further west. I guess it won’t have any long term implications?

[GCANE]

Latest drop from recon
14.24N 73.52W at 11:24Z
1002mb

Somewhat dry in the core

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 2-1125.png

[REDHurricane]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1980716045070704728

Not saying I think it'll happen this time obviously, but if (when?) we ever witness a storm that challenges Wilma in our lifetimes I'm guessing it'll likely come from a setup similar to this one -- mid-late October, La Niña conditions, virtually untouched western Caribbean with extremely high OHC built up, tropical wave that struggles but stays intact through the MDR/eastern Caribbean until it slows down west of Jamaica and finds itself under a nice ridge for a few days... the ingredients are there at the very least, which makes me wonder if we'll end up seeing more setups like this in the future as ocean temperatures continue warming and the AEW season persists later and later into the fall months