NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

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Nuno
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#201 Postby Nuno » Wed Oct 22, 2025 7:54 am

AJC3 wrote:
al78 wrote:Looking at the latest discussion/advisories from NHC, can someone explain why Haiti is under a hurricane watch whilst Jamaica is only under a tropical storm watch, even though the forecast track has the storm almost landfalling on the eastern tip of Jamaica as a hurricane and is some distance from Haiti through the next five days? I'd have thought the watches would have been the other way around with that forecast track.


That's entirely up to the government of the impacted country. If I had to make an educated guess, Haiti is erring on the side of extreme caution. The forecast track (extreme slowdown in forward speed), intensity and "right sided" wind radii, altogether really only justified a TS watch for them (for now) at the time it was issued . It's hard to see any land (or even marine) area getting Hurricane force winds at T+48 hours from 03Z.


I always thought the NHC made recommendations that countries implemented based on their advice. Formally it is up to the country but do they implement such warnings or watches without the NHC filling them in on it?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#202 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:13 am

Some of you may love this discussion I had. I asked him the simple question why he didn't want to believe the Euro, kind of went around by question.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1980778552628035824

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#203 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:21 am

Shear seems to be slowly letting up.
Seeing some radial cirrus fingers on the NW quad.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#204 Postby Zonacane » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:28 am

GCANE wrote:Shear seems to be slowly letting up.
Seeing some radial cirrus fingers on the NW quad.

Impressive blow up this morning. Would not surprise me at all to see the center consolidate underneath it.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#205 Postby USTropics » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:29 am

NDG wrote:Some of you may love this discussion I had. I asked him the simple question why he didn't want to believe the Euro, kind of went around by question.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1980778552628035824



Call my skeptical, but I don't see this dissipating:

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#206 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:37 am

Zonacane wrote:
GCANE wrote:Shear seems to be slowly letting up.
Seeing some radial cirrus fingers on the NW quad.

Impressive blow up this morning. Would not surprise me at all to see the center consolidate underneath it.


Nope, per the latest recon pass the LLC continues on its forecasted NW track.
Euro is persistently showing NW moderate shear over it over the next 24 hrs if not longer and to continue to be displaced at times from its MLC.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#207 Postby Keldeo1997 » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:38 am

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#208 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:40 am

IF the Euro and HAFSs models are correct we could see the Atlantic ACE get up to at least 130 over the next 7-10 days
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#209 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:43 am

CoC appears to be slowly getting saturated.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 2-1253.png
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#210 Postby jconsor » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:52 am

There are quite few analogs for the time of year and Melissa's expected path and intensity.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1980991500482994204

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#211 Postby REDHurricane » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:57 am



This is particularly ominous coming from him :lightning:
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#212 Postby Zonacane » Wed Oct 22, 2025 8:57 am

NDG wrote:
Zonacane wrote:
GCANE wrote:Shear seems to be slowly letting up.
Seeing some radial cirrus fingers on the NW quad.

Impressive blow up this morning. Would not surprise me at all to see the center consolidate underneath it.


Nope, per the latest recon pass the LLC continues on its forecasted NW track.
Euro is persistently showing NW moderate shear over it over the next 24 hrs if not longer and to continue to be displaced at times from its MLC.

I was talking about a center reformation, but shear might be strong enough to continue pushing the low level vortex out in front
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#213 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 22, 2025 9:03 am

Zonacane wrote:
NDG wrote:
Zonacane wrote:Impressive blow up this morning. Would not surprise me at all to see the center consolidate underneath it.


Nope, per the latest recon pass the LLC continues on its forecasted NW track.
Euro is persistently showing NW moderate shear over it over the next 24 hrs if not longer and to continue to be displaced at times from its MLC.

I was talking about a center reformation, but shear might be strong enough to continue pushing the low level vortex out in front


If it didn't happened yesterday evening, is not going to happened today. The LLC is well established.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#214 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 22, 2025 9:36 am

I legit think there's a chance Melissa could be one of the most powerful hurricanes in Atlantic history if it makes it into the Western Caribbean. Slow mover, low shear and very deep, 30C+ water. Those are the same ingredients that made Wilma.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#215 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 22, 2025 9:52 am

It's a long shot and too early to tell, but if Melissa deepens below 900 mb, 2024-25 will be the first time on record that two consecutive Atlantic hurricane seasons featured sub-900 mb storms.

The only years on record to have at least one such storms are: 1935, 1980, 1988, 2005 (2x), 2024. Honorable mention to 1969 with Camille exactly at 900 mb.

Coincidentally, if this happens, both of these sub-900 storms would have M names.

Even if Melissa "only" reaches Cat 5, it would still mean five Cat 5s within 2 years (with Beryl, Milton, Erin and Humberto confirmed). The only other time this happened was 2004-05.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#216 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Oct 22, 2025 10:02 am

Well, the 11am NHC discussion now has Melissa as a MH at the end of the forecast period. Looks like they are going with the S of Jamaica solution
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#217 Postby kevin » Wed Oct 22, 2025 10:17 am

The stars are aligning for a monster hurricane. But remember that this also was the case with Delta in 2020. Everyone was already calling it a future cat 5 when it was a cat 1. And then last minute unexpected shear caused the pinhole to collapse. Nothing is set in stone yet. Let's at least hope this misses Jamaica and other populated areas during its lifetime, even though that is difficult to achieve in the WCar.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#218 Postby MGC » Wed Oct 22, 2025 10:30 am

GCANE wrote:Shear seems to be slowly letting up.
Seeing some radial cirrus fingers on the NW quad.


It appears that is the case. Outflow on the western flank of Melissa is greatly improved this morning compared to yesterday at this time. 11am advisory now forecast Melissa to become a major hurricane south of Jamaica. I still don't think the GFS is correct. Melissa is trapped currently and until a trough that is strong enough to disrupt the current setup comes along Melissa will likely fester in the Caribbean for several days. The cyclone could eventually find a pocket of conditions that favor intensification into a Cat-4 hurricane but that is just speculation on my part......MGC
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#219 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 22, 2025 10:32 am

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#220 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 22, 2025 10:42 am

Core pretty much saturated now.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 2-1449.png

Slow move to the west with north-south wobbles.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... ELISSA.png
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