NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[InfernoFlameCat]

Lets hope Melissa tracks directly over Jamaica and don't achieve Cat-4-5 intensity......MGC

I would hope it doesn’t do that. I hope it somehow threads the needle and misses land

[sasha_B]

I don't think the feature running away is the LLC.

The NOAA recon flight currently en route will be able to confirm the location of the LLC one way or another. The 21z forecast of gradual intensification (as opposed to a steady state) in the short-term, and RI beginning around 18z tomorrow, suggests that the process of vertical alignment may already be ongoing, so the storm remaining severely tilted like it has been for another 24h would be a significant deviation from the NHC's expectations.

[ljmac75]

Lets hope Melissa tracks directly over Jamaica and don't achieve Cat-4-5 intensity......MGC

I would hope it doesn’t do that. I hope it somehow threads the needle and misses land

The weather nerd in me wants to see an ultra-strong cat 5. The humanitarian in me wants to see an ultra strong cat 5 that stays away from land. The realist in me expects neither.

[zzzh]

I don't think the feature running away is the LLC.

Recon confirms

[cycloneye]

I don't think the feature running away is the LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/ajMBjSe.png
Recon confirms

That is a MLC.

[ljmac75]

Which number center is this? 3rd? 4th?

[cycloneye]

From the 8 PM advisory:

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT THE CENTER OF MELISSA HAS
REFORMED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...

[zzzh]

I don't think the feature running away is the LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/ajMBjSe.png
Recon confirms

That is a MLC.

How is 850mb mid level?

[zzzh]

Another dropsonde. The center is definitely elongated from SE to NW.

[Nimbus]

Levi did a good job with a nuance of the ensemble evolution through the first 60 hours for the GFS VS Euro.
Melissa is moving so slow that precipitation especially for Jamaica will be measured in feet with the ridge capture scenario.
Beyond 100 hours there isn't really a safe escape route north so this is going to be bad.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[chaser1]

Levi did a good job with a nuance of the ensemble evolution through the first 60 hours for the GFS VS Euro.
Melissa is moving so slow that precipitation especially for Jamaica will be measured in feet with the ridge capture scenario.
Beyond 100 hours there isn't really a safe escape route north so this is going to be bad.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Agreed, Levi broke down things very well but he did not really discuss what extent of ridging (how far west) Melissa might track westward once the ridge built just north & northwest of it.

[NDG]

Melissa is still so tilted that the recon dropped to 5k feet to fix its LLC before going back up to its usual 10k cruising altitude, so many MLC vorticities to the east of the LLC.
The Euro is still persistent that it will be affected with westerly shear for the next 24-36 hrs, once the mid level ridge builds to its north the LLC and MLC will start getting aligned.

[Hurricane2022]

If Melissa stays weaker in the next 36 - 48 hours, it's possible that she can miss Jamaica and start to track WSW/W over the WCAR?

[Nimbus]

If Melissa stays weaker in the next 36 - 48 hours, it's possinle that she can miss Jamaica and start to track WSW/W over the WCAR?

More likely she continues to drift north a little more then gets pulled back W or WSW over Jamaica as the Gulf ridging takes over steering.

Lots of possibilities though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Shear beginning to lessen and an inner core is finally starting to develop. I think Melissa may make its run for hurricane status tomorrow afternoon, setting the stage for explosive RI beginning Saturday morning.

[Category5Kaiju]

Shear beginning to lessen and an inner core is finally starting to develop. I think Melissa may make its run for hurricane status tomorrow afternoon, setting the stage for explosive RI beginning Saturday morning.

https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GOES01402025297EaSV8Z.jpg

Whoa... . Melissa really is beginning to get that "look"; I think we're all expecting that this storm will become a ferocious hurricane, but I think when it happens in real-time we're still going to be amazed by it. Praying that residents in Jamaica and possibly the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Hispaniola, and Bahamas take the necessary precautions in light of this unfolding situation.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1981540523971129850


I don't think this reformation will occur, especially because recon found a very tight LLC right below the cold blob of convection (~0130z, ~16.2°N, 75.4°W). Just my opinion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[tropicwatch]

Pressure drop might happen but not buying the reformation part..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the satellite, it almost seems to be drifting ever so slightly SSW. That might be due to the bursting, but the shear vector has definitely changed.
Edit...looking at recon, it has either reformed S or moved south

[Nimbus]

11PM NHC track rakes the southern coast of Jamaica tracking almost due west.
Couldn't get the discussion at weather underground though?
They must have thrown the GFS idea of a drift further north closer to Haiti entirely?