NATL: MELISSA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...MELISSA NEARLY STATIONARY...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 75.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

For all intents and purposes, Melissa is nearly stationary over the
north-central Caribbean Sea. The estimated center has been
adjusted a bit based on scatterometer data from last evening, but
wind direction data from buoy 42058 also suggest that the
circulation could still be a bit elongated. There are several deep
convective bursts embedded within the overall cloud canopy,
although banding features are not particularly well defined at the
moment. An Air Force Reserve mission should provide a more accurate
estimate of Melissa's center location and intensity in a couple of
hours, and for now the estimated intensity is maintained at 40 kt.

With Melissa located within a break in the mid-level ridge, the
steering currents remain weak. Track models suggest that some
meandering or a slow northeast to north drift is likely to occur
over the next 24 hours. By Saturday, there will likely be just
enough mid-level ridging building north of the storm to cause
Melissa to begin moving very slowly westward, with that motion
continuing through Tuesday. What's most noteworthy is that several
reliable models, including the ECMWF, HCCA, and Google DeepMind
ensemble mean have shifted southward during this period. The new
NHC forecast reflects this slight shift, but it's important to note
that several other models continue to show Melissa's center getting
perilously close to or over Jamaica in 2-3 days. A slow
recurvature is forecast on days 4 and 5, with Melissa potentially
moving near western Jamaica and approaching southeastern Cuba by
early Wednesday. Interestingly, the 00z ECMWF keeps Melissa south
or southwest of Jamaica through day 5, but it appears to be an
outlier compared to the other guidance.

Strong westerly shear continues to affect Melissa, but there are
some indications that the shear could gradually decrease over the
next 24-36 hours. At the same time, high ocean heat content values
and stronger upper-level divergence should help to induce
strengthening. There is fairly strong agreement among the
intensity models that a period of rapid intensification could begin
in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast shows Melissa becoming a
hurricane in 36 hours. Although this is an aggressive forecast
given Melissa's current structure, several models are even stronger
than the NHC forecast at that forecast time. There is less model
agreement on Melissa's intensity after 48 hours. In order to
maintain continuity with previous forecasts, the NHC prediction is
near the top end of the guidance envelope and close to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean. Other models show flatlining or decreasing
intensity after 48 hours, but that is likely due to scenarios that
account for more land interaction.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica later today or on Saturday.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash
flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend
into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is
expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period
of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.0N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.1N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.6N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.9N 75.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 16.9N 76.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 16.9N 77.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 16.9N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 17.6N 78.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 19.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...MELISSA DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS RECONNAISSANCE
INVESTIGATES THIS MORNING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 75.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT MELISSA COULD BE REFORMING TO THE
EAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 74.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance that has been flying through
Melissa this morning found the center significantly further to
the east-southeast than what was observed last night. How much of
this position is related to a real motion, or a center reformation
is unclear at this time. The storm remains about the same on
satellite imagery this morning, with a large burst of
deep convection, primarily along its southeastern flank, with
evidence of northwesterly shear still undercutting the outflow. A
WSFM microwave pass shows very deep hot towers, but not with that
much structure beyond that. In addition, there hasn't been a
significant change to Melissa's intensity, with peak 850 mb flight
level winds of 49 kt, and these winds support maintaining 40 kt
intensity this advisory.

As has been stated for the last few days, the lack of persistent
steering currents, due to competing mid-level ridges to the
southeast and northwest of Melissa, is responsible for the storm's
very slow motion. This is likely to continue for the next day or so,
and much of the system's motion could be just as influenced by
center reformations during this time period. After 24 hours, the
mid-level ridge located to the northwest is expected to strengthen
to the north of Melissa, and the guidance is coming into better
agreement on a very slow westward motion through 72 hours. Beyond
that time frame, a strengthening mid-latitude trough expected to
move into the Southeastern U.S., should provide an avenue for
Melissa to escape the Caribbean Sea to the northeast by the end of
the forecast period. The track guidance overall has shifted south
over the first few days, but there is still substantial spread in
solutions at the end of the forecast period, related to when and
how fast Melissa turns to the northeast. The latest NHC track
forecast is a little south of the prior one early on, but is
shifted a little eastward in 4-5 days, roughly a blend of the latest
HCCA and GDMI model aid solutions. On the forecast track, Melissa
could potentially be near western Jamaica by day 4 and near or
over southeastern Cuba by day 5, though timing still remains more
uncertain than usual.

The GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear guidance indicates the
deep-layer shear is lower than yesterday, between 14-17 kt, but
there still appears to be mid-level shear undercutting the outflow
layer. Until Melissa also become better aligned vertically, any
intensification is likely to be slow to occur over the next 12 h or
so. After that, once Melissa's structure improves, environmental
conditions still appear favorable for a period of rapid
intensification (RI). Every single Google DeepMind member shows the
system become a Category 4 hurricane or higher, and the uncertainty
is more related on the timing of when RI occurs. After 96 hours,
Melissa could weaken some due to the combined effects of land
interaction, and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear by
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
on the higher end of the model solutions, but more or less in line
with the latest GDMI guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica on Saturday or Sunday.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week.
Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially
isolating communities for an extended period of time. This is a
life-threatening situation and immediate preparations to protect
life and property should be taken. Strong winds could also
potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula of
Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 15.7N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.9N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.5N 75.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 16.6N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.4N 76.7W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1230 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT MELISSA IS STRENGTHENING...

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicates that
Melissa is strengthening, and maximum sustained winds are now
estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum
pressure from aircraft dropsonde data has dropped to 999 mb
(29.50 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1230 PM EDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 74.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...MELISSA REORGANIZING AND POISED TO INTENSIFY SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 74.4W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE
THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 74.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica


Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

After the previous advisory, the last couple of aircraft fixes from
the C-130 indicated that Melissa likely completed a center
relocation as a very large burst of deep convection with cloud tops
below -90C rotated up-shear of the center. This evolution was also
nicely captured on the GOES-19 mesoscale sector, where GLM lightning
flashes, which had been parked down-shear earlier in the morning,
started to rotate cyclonically along Melissa's eastern flank,
indicating convection was finally starting to wrap around the
low-level vortex. A GMI microwave pass at 1527 UTC also hinted at a
nascent inner core feature on the 37 GHz channel as the convective
burst wrapped around the center. Before the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters left Melissa, they measured a peak flight level wind of 59
kt, and a pressure down to 997 mb, supporting the 50 kt intensity
for the intermediate advisory. However, given the improvement of
Melissa's structure since that time, the initial intensity is being
raised to 55 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the
T3.5/55-kt Dvorak intensity estimate provided by TAFB. Another Air
Force Reserve and a NOAA-P3 reconnaissance mission will be in the
storm tonight to provide more data on Melissa's intensity and
structure.

Now that the center is becoming better aligned with its mid-level
vortex, it also appears the tropical storm has finally turned more
northward, with an estimated motion of 360/2 kt. The synoptic track
reasoning remains similar to this morning, with a slow motion
expected to continue in the short-term due light steering currents,
due to competing mid-level ridges to the southeast and northwest of
Melissa. After 24 hours, the mid-level ridge located to the
northwest is expected to strengthen to the north of Melissa, and the
guidance is coming into better agreement on a very slow westward
motion through 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, a strengthening
mid-latitude trough expected to move into the Southeastern U.S.,
providing a path for Melissa to turn northeastward out of the
Caribbean Sea into the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the
forecast period. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit
eastward beyond day 3, and is also notably faster than before.
However, it should be stressed that there remains a substantial
amount of along track spread. On the forecast track, Melissa could
potentially be near Jamaica by day 4 and move across Cuba before the
end of the forecast period, though the timing of this track remains
more uncertain than usual.

Compared to yesterday, the UW-CIMSS shear estimates have dropped
from 25 kt a day ago to 15 kt currently with mid-level shear also
decreasing. This reduction in shear, in combination with the
dramatically improved structure of Melissa this afternoon, suggests
that the system is ready to take advantage of other favorable
environmental conditions (30-31 C sea-surface temperatures, a
moistening deep-layer environment). The intensity guidance is
sharply higher this afternoon in the short-term, and it appears that
Melissa could begin a period of rapid intensification (RI) at any
time. The NHC intensity forecast responds to this guidance change by
explicitly show RI earlier and continuing over the weekend. The
forecast now shows a 135 kt peak in 60 h, and there is a distinct
possibility that Melissa could become a Category 5 hurricane during
this time period. In fact, the latest 12z Google DeepMind ensemble
distribution shows the majority of its members reaching this lofty
intensity. After that time period, inner-core structural changes are
likely to cause fluctuations in intensity, and land interaction in
both Jamaica and Cuba will likely lead to some weakening by the end
of the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of
the guidance envelope, and closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble
mean (GDMI).

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, a prolonged multi-day
period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall resulting in potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides is likely to
begin late Saturday or Sunday. There is an increasing risk of
life-threatening storm surge when the center of Melissa nears
Jamaica early next week. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week.
Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially
isolating communities for an extended period of time. Immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the Dominican Republic.

4. Eastern Cuba and Bahamas: Interests in Cuba and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of Melissa since there is an increasing
risk of a significant storm storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall by the middle of next week. The risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides in eastern Cuba are increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.2N 74.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.4N 74.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 16.5N 75.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 16.5N 76.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 16.5N 76.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 17.9N 77.4W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND IN JAMAICA
120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 74.8W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT LITTLE
CHANGE IN MELISSA'S STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 74.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT MELISSA IS
NOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 74.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Melissa is still trying to get organized. While the
central pressure has fallen to 993 mb, the tail Doppler radar data
from the NOAA aircraft shows that the 500-mb center is displaced
about 20-25 n mi east-southeast of the surface center. The tilt is
also present at the aircraft flight levels, with dropsondes
released at the flight-level center missing the surface center and
reporting 25-35 kt surface winds. In addition, the aircraft radar
data and land-based radar data from Jamaica show that the cyclone
has not yet been able to develop a persistent eyewall. Based mainly
on the central pressure and satellite intensity estimates the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt.

Although the initial motion is a bit uncertain, Melissa now appears
to be moving slowly northwest with the initial motion 325/3 kt. A
turn toward the west or west-northwest and a continued slow forward
speed are expected in 12-24 h as low- to mid-level ridging builds
to the north of the cyclone. This motion should continue through
about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moving into the southeastern United States and the southwestern
Atlantic will break the ridge to the north, with Melissa expected
to turn northward and eventually northeastward as it recurves into
the westerlies. There remains a substantial spread in the guidance
with respect to where the center of Melissa may pass in relation to
Jamaica, with solutions ranging from the GFS passing near the
eastern end of the island to the Canadian passing west of the
island. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and
shows the center passing over Jamaica just after 72 h. However, any
motion north of the current forecast track could bring the center
near or over Jamaica at almost any time between 24-72 h. After
passing Jamaica, Melissa is likely to move near or over eastern
Cuba, but which portion of eastern Cuba may be most affected
remains uncertain at this time.

While the westerly shear that has been affecting Melissa will not
completely stop during the next 2-3 days, it is forecast to
decrease to about 10-15 kt in 24 h or less. This should allow rapid
development as the storm is located in a moist environment over
very warm sea surface temperatures. The one short-term restraining
factor is that Melissa's structure is not quite good enough yet to
allow rapid intensification (RI), and thus it could be another
6-12 h before RI begins in earnest. The latest round of intensity
guidance shows somewhat lower peak intensities than the previous
advisory, mainly due to the models moving Melissa near or over
Jamaica. However, the current forecast track keeps the center
offshore for 72 h or more, and based on this the new intensity
forecast is at the high end of the guidance with a peak intensity
of 135 kt. Despite the weaker guidance, there is still a
possibility that Melissa could become a category 5 hurricane during
the forecast period. After passing near or over Jamaica, the cyclone
is forecast to weaken due to possible interaction with Cuba and
increasing southwesterly shear as Melissa encounters the
mid-latitude westerlies.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning late Saturday or
Sunday, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm
surge early next week. All preparations should be complete by late
Saturday.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing
extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation
of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property
are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.

4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm storm
surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next
week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides is increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 16.5N 75.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.7N 75.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 16.8N 76.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 16.8N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 16.9N 77.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 17.4N 77.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 19.3N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 23.2N 73.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[LarryWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SUGGEST MELISSA IS ALMOST A
HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 74.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 75.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince





Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

During the last center fix of the Air Force Reserve mission into
Melissa several hours ago, a dropsonde measured a surface pressure
of 989 mb with winds of 27 kt, suggesting that the central pressure
has fallen to about 986 mb. The plane did not measure stronger
winds, but it did not fly through the area due east of the center,
which is where a nearly coincident ASCAT pass suggested the
strongest winds would be located. Some westerly shear is still
evident, but the center is now embedded far enough under the
Central Dense Overcast to yield Dvorak estimates of T4.0/65 kt from
TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB. The current intensity is estimated to
be 60 kt based on all these data. It's also worth noting that an
eye feature has occasionally been apparent in radar images from
Jamaica.

Melissa is currently moving slowly northwestward (310/3 kt).
Steering currents will remain weak for the next 3 days, and Melissa
is forecast to drift westward through Sunday night to the south of
Jamaica. A sharp but still very slow turn toward the north is
expected Monday and Monday night. Unfortunately, a large majority
of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on
Jamaica in about 72 hours. What's most concerning here is that the
island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall
and tropical-storm-force winds before the core--and strongest
winds--even reach the coast. An increase in forward motion is
expected by days 4 and 5, with Melissa accelerating northeastward
across eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Although there are some speed differences among
the models, for the most part the cross-track spread is generally
small.

Although some westerly shear is likely to continue for the next few
days, high oceanic heat content and stronger upper-level
divergence should be able to support significant strengthening.
The dynamical model-based Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
(DTOPS) in particular are quite aggressive, showing a very high
probability of a 55-kt increase in intensity over the next 48
hours. In addition, 41 of the 50 Google DeepMind ensemble members
show Melissa at category 4 or 5 strength by Monday afternoon (60
hours), which is the same time that the NHC forecast continues to
show a peak intensity of 135 kt. Although some slight weakening is
possible after 60 hours, possibly due to the circulation
interacting with land and/or an eyewall replacement, Melissa still
has a significant possibility of making landfall on Jamaica as a
major hurricane. Melissa could maintain major hurricane strength
when it reaches eastern Cuba, but increased shear should lead to
weakening below major hurricane strength by day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. There
is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next
week. All preparations should be completed today.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected
across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing
extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation
of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property
are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or
more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.

4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In
eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides is increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 16.3N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.5N 75.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 16.8N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.9N 77.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 17.8N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH...S COAST OF JAMAICA
96H 29/0600Z 20.4N 75.3W 105 KT 120 MPH...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
120H 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 75.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 75.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Melissa is very nearly a hurricane. Data from both the Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate the storm has become better
organized, with a 20 n mi eyewall that has been coming an going.
This structure has also been seen on radar images out of Kingston,
Jamaica. Compared to last night, Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data
indicates the tropical cyclone is much better aligned vertically,
though some residual eastward tilt with height exists in the
mid-levels. The peak flight level winds at 700 mb were up to 68 kt.
Using a standard 0.9 adjustment factor to surface winds yields an
intensity of 60 kt, but Melissa could become a hurricane at any
time, as other satellite intensity estimates already support a
higher value.

The initial motion is crawling along to the west-northwest,
estimated between aircraft fixes to be 285/1 kt. Now that the
tropical cyclone has become better aligned vertically, it should
increasingly feel the deep-layer steering, which has a slight south
of due-west component from the latest ECMWF steering diagnostics.
The spread in the model solutions even in the next 12-36 hours is
higher than usual, with the AI models, Google DeepMind ensemble
mean (GDMI) and ECMWF-AI (AIFS) on the south and western end of the
guidance envelope showing a westward or even west-southwestward
motion in the short-term, while the traditional dynamical aids
(ECMWF, HAFS-A/B) show more of a west-northwestward drift
towards Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours. Still though, nearly all
of the reliable track guidance (discounting the GFS which has been
an eastward outlier since the storm formed) shows Melissa making
landfall in Jamaica sometime in the 60-72 hour time frame. During
this time, a digging mid-latitude trough in the southeastern United
States is expected to create a new weakness to the north of
Melissa, which should result in the cyclone taking a sharp turn to
the northeast. While the guidance is in good agreement on this
general turn with relatively small across-track spread, there
remains high along-track spread in the solutions, best highlighted
by the Google DeepMind ensemble which shows a spread in possible
locations in 96 h from still inland over Jamaica to northeast
of Cuba in the southwestern Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is a
touch south of the prior track for the first 24-48 hours, but
converges on the prior track forecast thereafter. This is a little
on the eastern side of the track guidance envelope, giving credence
to the AI model solutions (GDMI, ECAI) which to date are the best
preforming track guidance this hurricane season.

Melissa seems to be shaking off the negative effects of westerly
shear now that the storm is becoming better vertically aligned.
Thus, it appears likely that a period of rapid intensification
will occur as the storm moves slowly over very warm ocean waters
(30-31C sea-surface temperatures) which is also over the highest
oceanic heat content in the entire Atlantic basin, which will limit
initial ocean upwelling under the slow moving storm. Similar to the
previous cycles, roughly 40/50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show
Melissa becoming a Category 5. While I am not ready to forecast that
intensity yet given the track uncertainty, that remains a
possibility. After 48 h, inner core processes (such as eyewall
replacement cycles) could cause fluctuations in intensity, but
Melissa is still expected to make landfall in Jamaica as an
upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct
landfall for the island in since tropical cyclone record keeping has
been made in the Atlantic Basin. Weakening is expected as Melissa
moves over the high terrain of Jamaica and eastern Cuba, with
further weakening expected thereafter as southwesterly vertical wind
shear increases. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end
of the guidance, but closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble mean,
which has also been on of our best intensity guidance performers
this year.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding, numerous landslides, extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. A
life-threatening storm surge is also likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week. All preparations should be completed
today.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and
potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 16.5N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.4N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.5N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 16.7N 77.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 17.2N 77.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 17.9N 77.2W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 20.5N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 25.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA BECOMES A HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban
provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince




Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Melissa is likely beginning a period of rapid intensification (RI).
Since both the NOAA-P3 and Air Force Reserve C-130 aircraft sampled
the system this morning, the satellite presentation has continued to
improve, with cold -75 to -80 C cloud tops wrapping around the
center with hints of an eye starting to appear on visible images.
The eye is also becoming better defined on radar images out of
Jamaica with an overall diameter of around 20 n mi. In addition, an
earlier GMI microwave pass received after the prior advisory showed
a well-defined cyan ring on the 37-GHz, which is often a harbinger
of RI. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.0/90 kt from
SAB, and T4.5/77 kt from TAFB. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
were a little lower, but are also quickly rising, and the initial
intensity will be set at 80 kt this advisory, blending these
intensity estimates.

The hurricane now appears to be moving slowly westward, at an
estimated motion of 275/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge has built in
to the north of Melissa, and should be the main steering feature
over the next 24-48 hours to help move the hurricane slowly
westward. The deep-layer steering vector still has a slight
southward component, and it wouldn't be surprising to even see a
little south of due west motion occur, like the Google DeepMind
ensembles and ECMWF-AI model have been suggesting in the short-term
forecast. After the next couple of days, the ridging to the north
becomes quickly eroded by a shortwave trough moving across the
southeastern United States. The net result of this changing synoptic
pattern is that Melissa is expected to turn rather abruptly
northward and northeastward by the early to middle part of next
week. Compared to this morning, the track guidance has become more
tightly clustered in the across track direction, and even the 12z
GFS run, which was previous a eastward outlier, is now in better
agreement with the track guidance suite showing a direct landfall in
Jamaica. The main uncertainty is related to the amount of
acceleration that Melissa will undergo after it turns to the
northeast, and there remains large spread in the along-track
direction in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance in the day
3-5 time frame. The NHC track forecast is only slightly more
poleward compared to the prior forecast over the first 12-24 hours,
and convergences very close to the prior track thereafter. This
track is roughly a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI track guidance.
On this track, this brings Melissa's core near Jamaica early on
Tuesday, and early on Wednesday along the eastern Cuba provinces,
where a hurricane watch is now in effect.

Rapid intensification appears to have started, and assuming Melissa
stays far enough south of Jamaica over the next couple of days,
there appear few impediments to its intensification in the
short-term. Both the hurricane-regional models and the Google
DeepMind ensembles suggest RI could continue for the next 36 to 48
hours. In fact, once again 4/5th s of the latter 50 member ensemble
are forecasting a peak intensity of Category 5 intensity. The 12z
HAFS-A run also showed a peak intensity of Category 5 in 48 hours,
and both HAFS-A/B have been suggesting a similar peak on and off
over the past few days. Given the current trends, the NHC intensity
forecast now shows a 140 kt peak in 48 hours, in general agreement
with this aggressive guidance. Afterwards, some inner-core
oscillations such as eyewall replacement cycles could lead to
fluctuations in intensity before its first landfall in Jamaica. It
is worth stressing that there is very little practical difference
in the overall impacts of a Category 4 or 5 landfall, and
Melissa is expected to be at least that intensity when moves over
Jamaica early next week. Land interaction will likely lead to some
weakening as it moves northeastward across Jamaica, but the storm
will likely also grow in size and is still forecast to be a major
hurricane when it moves over Cuba by the middle of this week. Only
after this period that southwesterly shear begins to increase in
earnest after it moves into the Southwestern Atlantic. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to be on the high end of the overall
guidance, siding with the higher intensity aids such as GDMI (which
has been the best preforming intensity guidance thus far this year)
and HAFS-A, but all the hurricane-regional models show a peak
intensity of at least Category 4 intensity.

Needless to say, there is a very serious situation, in terms of
catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica
and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area
currently under a Hurricane Warning.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy
rainfall is expected to begin tonight, causing catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities is
likely. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along
portions of the southern coast early next week. All preparations
should be completed today.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and
potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce catastrophic
flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the
country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.6N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT MELISSA IS
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT
THAT MELISSA IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 75.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince




Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Melissa is continuing rapid intensification. The Air
Force aircraft reported flight-level winds of 115 kt in the north
eyewall of the 17 nm wide eye at 700 mb, along with a central
pressure of 967 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 100 kt, making Melissa a category 3 major hurricane.

The initial motion is now just south of due west or 265/3 kt. A
low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa should steer the
hurricane generally westward at a slow forward speed during the
next 36 h or so. After that time, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moving through the southeastern United States will break the ridge,
with Melissa expected to turn northward and then recurve into the
mid-latitude southwesterly flow. The guidance is fairly well
clustered during the first 72 h, with Melissa expected to pass over
Jamaica in 48-60 h and then be near or over eastern Cuba around 72
h. Beyond 72 h, there is some speed and direction spread, but
overall the guidance is in good agreement that Melissa should
accelerate northeastward through portions of the Bahamas into the
Atlantic. The new forecast track is a little to the south and west
of the previous track through 60 h and similar to the previous
track after that time.

Rapid intensification is expected to continue for the next 24-36 h,
and it is possible that during this time Melissa could intensify
even faster than what is currently forecast. The regional hurricane
models show the cyclone peaking before it reaches Jamaica, and
based on this the new forecast keeps a 48-h peak intensity of 140
kt. Afterwards, some inner-core oscillations such as eyewall
replacement cycles could lead to fluctuations in intensity before
Melissa's first landfall in Jamaica. It must be noted that there is
very little practical difference in the overall impacts of a
Category 4 or 5 landfall, and Melissa is expected to be at least
that intensity when it moves over Jamaica. Melissa should weaken
as it interacts with Jamaica and Cuba, although it is still forecast
to be a major hurricane when it nears Cuba. A faster weakening
should occur after passing Cuba when the cyclone encounters strong
shear over the southwestern Atlantic.

This remains a very serious situation, in terms of catastrophic
rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica, and
preparations should be rushed to completion in the area currently
under a Hurricane Warning.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. A multi-day period of damaging
winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation
of communities. Strong winds could last for a day or more over the
Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through the middle of next
week could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides in southern portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 16.4N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.4N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 17.2N 77.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 18.0N 77.2W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND JAMAICA
72H 29/0000Z 19.4N 76.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 72.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...MELISSA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...MELISSA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince




Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Melissa is in the midst of a period of extreme rapid
intensification. Its intensity has increased by 50 kt over the
past 24 hours and 35 kt over the past 12 hours. Data from the last
pass of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the
eye just before 1 AM EDT indicated that maximum winds had increased
to 105 kt and the pressure had fallen to 958 mb. The eye has been
clearing out and warming since that time in infrared satellite
imagery, with the Dvorak data-T numbers from both TAFB and SAB up to
T6.0/115 kt at 2 AM EDT. The intensity is estimated to be 120 kt at
the time of this advisory based on the latest AiDT and DPRINT
estimates.

The center had taken a west-southwestward jog over the past 12
hours, but more recent frames of satellite images suggest it is now
moving westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt. There is very little change
in the forecast reasoning or the forecast track itself. Over the
next 48 hours, Melissa is expected to make a slow westward to
north-northeastward recurvature just to the south of Jamaica, likely
reaching the island's southern coast Tuesday morning. An
acceleration toward the northeast is expected after 48 hours when
Melissa is picked up by a trough moving off the southeast coast of
the United States, and this motion should bring the center across
southeastern Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, across the
southeastern Bahamas later on Wednesday, and then reaching the
vicinity of Bermuda on Friday.

It's assumed that the current period of rapid intensification will
continue, and Melissa could reach category 5 intensity by tonight.
An eyewall replacement would be likely to occur at some point over
the next couple of days, which would cause a decrease or at least
fluctuations in Melissa's intensity after 24 hours. Regardless,
Melissa is forecast to reach Jamaica as a category 4 hurricane,
which will only compound any damages caused by heavy rainfall and
flooding over the next 2 days. Melissa is likely to weaken a
little during its passage across Jamaica, but intensity guidance
suggests that it will likely still be a major hurricane when it
reaches southeastern Cuba late Tuesday and the southeastern Bahamas
on Wednesday. Stronger shear should cause the storm to weaken
below major hurricane strength on days 4 and 5 while over the
western Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
today and on Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds
arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural
damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation
of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely
along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday
morning.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek,
likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation
of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the
Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western
Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of the week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.3N 76.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.3N 76.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.5N 77.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 17.5N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH...JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA
60H 28/1800Z 18.7N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH...JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA
72H 29/0600Z 20.5N 75.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
96H 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 31/0600Z 30.3N 66.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SAMPLING MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

[Hurricane2022]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince




Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, NOAA-P3 aircraft
data indicates that Melissa's intensity has leveled off this
morning. Melissa remains a very formidable hurricane on satellite
imagery, with a clearing eye quite evident on morning visible
imagery, and the eye temperature has warmed to +15-20C. Meanwhile
the eyewall convection continues to remain robust with cloud tops as
low as -75 to -80C encircling the core. With that said, the eye
presentation from the Kingston, Jamaica radar is not as pristine,
with the eyewall occasionally open on the east side, and some
evidence of concentric bands forming off and on. Zooming out a bit,
there still remains some evidence of light to moderate westerly
shear undercutting the expanding storm outflow, and Melissa’s
primarily rainbands are distributed mostly on the eastern side of
the circulation. NOAA-P3 aircraft data this morning had a peak 700-
mb flight level wind of 120 kt, and Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind
retrievals were up to 129 kt at 0.5 km, and 129 kt in the 500 m
average of a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall. While this
data would support a somewhat lower intensity, the subjective and
objective satellite based intensity estimates are mostly higher,
ranging from 115 to 140 kt. The initial intensity will be held at
120 kt, on the lower end of those estimates, and this value could be
a little generous based on the aircraft data.

The major hurricane is moving westward this morning, from aircraft
fixes estimated at 270/3 kt. This motion is expected to continue for
the next 24-36 h as a narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa
imparts the majority of the steering. Thereafter, a short-wave
trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to
erode this ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast,
with gradual acceleration. On the forecast track, Melissa's core
is expected to be near the Jamaica coastline by Tuesday morning,
moving across the island and then approaching and moving over
eastern Cuba by Tuesday night. While the track guidance has become
tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours, the along-track spread
starts to increase significantly after that time period, with Google
DeepMind ensemble solutions on Wednesday morning ranging from
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern
Cuba, or in the Southwestern Atlantic near the Southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Cacaos Islands. The latest NHC track forecast was
nudged just a little westward of the prior track, once again
blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).

It is unclear if the current pause in Melissa's intensification is
temporary. While there have not been obvious indications of a
secondary eyewall formation yet, there are some concentric
reflectivity bands appearing on both Jamaica and NOAA-P3 TDR data
occasionally, though the inner eyewall remains strong. Some of the
guidance this morning has actually increased from yesterday at this
time, and notably both the HAFS-A/B explicitly forecast a Category 5
hurricane shortly before they show landfall in Jamaica. The latest
NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a peak intensity of 140
kt. However, inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles
could occur at any time. Regardless, Melissa is forecast to reach
Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only
exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over
the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken some as it traverses
over the higher terrain of Jamaica, but it is still forecast to be a
major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in
60-72 hours. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear should
cause gradual weakening, but Melissa could still be near hurricane
intensity when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda in about 5
days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the
intensity guidance, but not far off the GDMI, and HAFS-A/B intensity
aids.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash
flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating
winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening
storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast Monday
night and Tuesday morning.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek,
likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of
communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the
Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western
Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday
and Wednesday. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.4N 76.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 19.2N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 25.5N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH