NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[GCANE]

Looks like recon didn't want to get close to that hot tower.

[GCANE]

Holy crap, I just saw they measured near 80mm/hr rain rate near that tower.
About the strongest I have ever seen.
Rapid core heating is underway.
Shear reduction is having a big effect.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Rooting for a LLC re-location south personally. The more this thing gets away from Jamacia the better.

[GCANE]

14.95N 74.45W looking real good.
Top-end rain rate.
Persistent cirrus outflow with stacking and radial fingers.

[AutoPenalti]

14.95N 74.45W looking real good.
Top-end rain rate.
Persistent cirrus outflow with stacking and radial fingers.

Isn't this where they tagged the center?

[Teban54]

Has anyone been keeping track of how many reformations Melissa had?

[GCANE]

Feeder band forming from just north of Panama into the system.
Getting a lot of juice from the EPAC.
Can see more of that moist air being blocked by the Costa Rica mountains and moving south towards Panama.
Will likely move across Panama late today or tomorrow and then into Melissa late this weekend.
Highly likely Melissa will RI after that.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[GCANE]

14.95N 74.45W looking real good.
Top-end rain rate.
Persistent cirrus outflow with stacking and radial fingers.

Isn't this where they tagged the center?

They tagged it very close to 16N 75W.
But it looks like it is walking its way down to the hot tower.

[aspen]

Rooting for a LLC re-location south personally. The more this thing gets away from Jamacia the better.

That jog to the east on recon might unfortunately raise the odds of a Jamaica landfall.

[GCANE]

Starting to see a warm-core signature on IR at 14.95N 74.45W

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's getting hard to see what is movement and what is caused by shear

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1981721025101316325

[WeatherBoy2000]

It's getting hard to see what is movement and what is caused by shear

I think the NHC summed up Melissa's movement pretty well in the latest advisory:

For all intents and purposes, Melissa is nearly stationary over the
north-central Caribbean Sea.

[cheezyWXguy]

Clearly a lot of reorganization going on this morning. Center relocations are making things confusing, but overall the system looks much healthier than yesterday and the whole envelope is rotating pretty aggressively on satellite. Convection starting to appear on the western side of the envelope too. Conditions are becoming more favorable, everything still seems to be on track for this to become a major.

[GCANE]

Visible Satellite showing rapid convergence at the mid-levels.
This will work down to the surface before sunset.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1981723101730648084

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1981732882029658272

[sasha_B]

Melissa's raw T# on the UW-CIMSS page jumped from 2.2 to 3.6 with the identification of the new center, as it's now back under the CDO. Let's see if it can stay there this time.

[cheezyWXguy]

Visible Satellite showing rapid convergence at the mid-levels.
This will work down to the surface before sunset.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

I wouldn’t be surprised if this drill down process were attempting to take place right now, that mlc looks vigorous, especially with upper level outflow beginning to increase radially from the center of that main burst. The current llc centered on the nw side of this burst seems to be losing influence. I wonder how long it will be before recon starts seeing evidence of this process.

[aspen]

11am cone now shows a 130 kt landfall in Jamaica.