NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[GCANE]

She is pushing out in all quads.
Linking up to the EPAC.
Unlimited hot water.
Likely a major within 24 hours.
Hopefully an EWRC before Jamaica.
Sending prayers.

[GCANE]

Recon just measured surface winds at Cat 1
65.4 knots

Wait and see if it verifies.

[Iceresistance]

It's already wrapping upshear. I think the RI phase has begun for Melissa

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3dsc.gif

[GCANE]

Recon just measured surface winds at Cat 1
65.4 knots

Wait and see if it verifies.

Looks like 2nd reading was contaminated.
Will likely go around for another pass.

[Pelicane]

Shear's clearly letting up now. Look at how the outflow is literally shooting out of the core.

[GCANE]

Recon just measured surface winds at Cat 1
65.4 knots

Wait and see if it verifies.

Looks like 2nd reading was contaminated.
Will likely go around for another pass.

73mm/hr rain rate

[aspen]

It's already wrapping upshear. I think the RI phase has begun for Melissa
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3dsc.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3dsc.gif

Doubt it’s the start of RI yet because there’s still not much of an inner core to speak of. But it’s still significant improvement, and likely setting up a stage of RI starting tomorrow or Sunday.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Does Melissa have the potential to affect Florida?

No

[BobHarlem]

Jamaica radar doesn't show too much yet, although some of the rain bands are starting to get over the island.

[hipshot]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7373/pnipqG.gif

I wonder how long it will be until that convection on the east side of the center merges with the center. When and if it does, this is
going to be a massive hurricane.

[psyclone]

This looks like classic TC liftoff where we undergo a steady strengthening and organization phase for 12-24 hours or perhaps a bit more and then a period of rapid intensification follows and another day later you're on the precipice of a cat 5.

[GCANE]

Recon just measured surface winds at Cat 1
65.4 knots

Wait and see if it verifies.

Looks like 2nd reading was contaminated.
Will likely go around for another pass.

73mm/hr rain rate

Looks like heading back to the barn

[cycloneye]

Pretty wild how suddenly things changed quickly to have a bona fide TC considering we barely had an LLC to start the day.

[Nimbus]

Pretty wild how suddenly things changed quickly to have a bona fide TC considering we barely had an LLC to start the day.

I think that this may be important in that it means the deeper steering flow will be in play now.
The disaster potential is so high with this one, we don't want to jump and make a mistake..

[WaveBreaking]

You can see a shockwave radiating out from the core.

I really don’t like how this is going

[Buck]

You can see a shockwave radiating out from the core.

I've only ever noticed that on much stronger storms... and rarely at that. I think Melissa is signaling that she's ready for business.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think a hurricane by tonight is possible.

[GCANE]

Just punched thru the tropopause.
Check the supersonic wave on the east quad

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Very rare to see something like this.

[Teban54]

You can clearly see the improvements just from the shape of the convective blob itself.

(Of course the cloud tops are also remarkably cold, as it always has been throughout Melissa's life, but keep in mind that we had been misled by that before with Eta.)

[Kazmit]

This could really end up being Jamaica’s Maria.