NATL: MELISSA - Models

[aspen]

HAFS-A gets stuck in an infinite EWRC and makes landfall in the 910s, after peaking at 902 mbar.

[Nimbus]

12z model run the ridge encroachment from the Gulf is different at just 12 hours between GFS and Euro.

12Z GFS run forecast 588 isobar is still back over the Yucatan.



12z Euro model run has the 588 isobar stretching further east out over Cuba.

[Pelicane]

The 18z model cycle shifted back east, with a cluster showing an eastern Jamaican landfall.

[aspen]

18z HAFS-A and B have landfalls on opposite sides of Jamaica.

HAFS-A gets further west and strikes the western tip of Jamaica as a 150 kt/916 mbar Cat 5.

HAFS-B turns to the north sooner and makes landfall on the eastern end as a weaker Cat 4.

Both models show a bit of a ragged structure and difficulty fully clearing out its eye, despite less signals of an EWRC compared to last model cycle. Perhaps Melissa will still be dealing with some undercutting mid-level shear for the rest of its time in the Caribbean.

[Ubuntwo]

18z HAFS-A and B have landfalls on opposite sides of Jamaica.

HAFS-A gets further west and strikes the western tip of Jamaica as a 150 kt/916 mbar Cat 5.

HAFS-B turns to the north sooner and makes landfall on the eastern end as a weaker Cat 4.

Both models show a bit of a ragged structure and difficulty fully clearing out its eye, despite less signals of an EWRC compared to last model cycle. Perhaps Melissa will still be dealing with some undercutting mid-level shear for the rest of its time in the Caribbean.

To this point, SHIPS has been showing shear of 10kt or just below around what should be peak intensity. Not enough to inhibit intensification, but it could place a ceiling on intensity since it's in the mid levels. SHIPS and hurricane models also show RH dropping steadily through the forecast period, this shouldn't be an inhibitor as the storm will likely have an established core by that point.