NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[al78]

How resiliant is the infrastructure on Jamaica to hurricanes in general? I appreciate very little other than solid concrete structures are going to withstand cat 5 winds. I'm wondering if Jamaica increased its resiliance after Gilbert in a similar manner to how Florida upped its building codes after Andrew.

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

First pass found 991.3 mb extrapolated.

[Beef Stew]

I’ll preface this by saying: this has the potential to be a nightmare situation for Jamaica, and I hope that any and all preparation is being made for what very well may end up being the most intense landfall on the island in recorded history. I’m hoping that this isn’t the case, and that all in Melissa’s path are as sheltered as possible in the coming days.

Meteorologically speaking, I find few things more fascinating than watching the current evolution of Melissa: one of a cyclone that’s been continuously decoupled and disrupted by shear that finally finds a pocket of environmental favorability. As we’re seeing in real time, the limitations appear to be fully off now, and, barring something unexpected, I don’t see anything in the near future that is going to put much of a ceiling on this storm from becoming another historic WCar monster. If there’s anything that’s been a central theme this season, it’s that every significant hurricane has exploded when given the chance- and I suspect the RI we’re going to see from Melissa will be something potentially extraordinary. Godspeed to all in her path.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Melissa has that look Milton had last year before it went nuclear... my guess is the HAFS estimates were accurate. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a hurricane before midnight.

[CrazyC83]

The big question is...when is it really go time? At some point, it's likely we're going to see outrageous intensification.

[weeniepatrol]

The big question is...when is it really go time? At some point, it's likely we're going to see outrageous intensification.

Probably right now. It’s already a 3-4 mb drop in just a couple of hours. We will of course likely see even faster pressure drops soon, but even this current rate qualifies.

[Keldeo1997]

Eye drop coming though....

[aspen]

Welp. There’s a tight inner core already.

Jamaica needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario immediately. I can believe the government briefing was trying to downplay a likely Cat 4/5 landfall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Amazing how quickly this thing started taking off when the shear dropped. Very bad sign.

[WaveBreaking]

[ljmac75]

Pretty good estimate at 5 PM, 995 mbar, a little bit of deepening since then.

[Woofde]

Welp. There’s a tight inner core already.

Jamaica needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario immediately. I can believe the government briefing was trying to downplay a likely Cat 4/5 landfall.

Yeah it's off to the races for Melissa now I fear. That gradient is pretty tight and could get going fast. A slowdown would require shear to return which is only expected to continue relaxing.

[weeniepatrol]

VDM:

D. 993 mb
E. 225 deg 3 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. E17/36/18

[cycloneye]

Oh boy, Jamaica. A prayer for them.

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1981855179982139877

[Kazmit]

Welp. There’s a tight inner core already.

Jamaica needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario immediately. I can believe the government briefing was trying to downplay a likely Cat 4/5 landfall.

I’m guessing that’s because of how uncertain the track forecast has been the last few days. Still, at this point it’s pretty damn likely we do see a landfall.

[Teban54]

Oh boy, Jamaica. A prayer for them.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1981855179982139877

I'll also add that:

• A few more recent high-profile storms since Gilbert were originally expected to hit Jamaica but ultimately dodged it, most notably Ivan and Beryl. Even among weather fans in the US context, this has sometimes created the impression of a "Jamaica shield". I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened locally.
• As seen in the tweet, most major hurricanes passing close to Jamaica move east to west. But Melissa is now expected to move SW to NE, putting the strongest quadrant for winds and surge directly through the island.

[Nimbus]

VDM:

D. 993 mb
E. 225 deg 3 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. E17/36/18

That fix was above 16N again 8pm update could say its almost stationary or will they say its moving NNW at 3 knots?

Edit to add the next recon mission looks to be flying in at this angle so maybe the tail radar already established a track change?

[cheezyWXguy]

Guess my earlier guess was too bold after all, Melissa is not yet a hurricane. It won’t make much difference though, that threshold will be crossed overnight and beyond that there won’t be anything to hold Melissa back. Glad it’s the weekend because I don’t know how much sleep I’m going to get watching this over the next couple days.

[zzzh]

Still needs to work on the structure