NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Nuno]

Josh still not ready to go out as he keeps analyzing where will be best for him to do the chase.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1981785313417593220

I'm guessing Cuba, since there's less uncertainty that it will have direct impacts there.

He really shouldn't. Cuba evacuates residents directly in the path of such strong storms. The cuban highway doesnt even reach the part of cuba that is predicted to be impacted. There's very little fuel and resources in cuba, it just seems like an awful idea. I hope he doesnt go there.

[Teban54]

Looks like Melissa's pressure has mostly been holding steady at ~993 mb during the 3 recon passes from two different planes, and wind hasn't picked up either. The LLC is also at the NW corner of the deepest convection, so there may still be some shear present.

We're probably not seeing RI just yet... Even though it will come soon enough.

[cycloneye]

Looks like Melissa's pressure has mostly been holding steady at ~993 mb during the 3 recon passes from two different planes, and wind hasn't picked up either. The LLC is also at the NW corner of the deepest convection, so there may still be some shear present.

We're probably not seeing RI just yet... Even though it will come soon enough.

Also there may be still some tilt captured by the TSR.

.

[Beef Stew]

My comment about RI appearing imminent seems to have been premature- there still is some structural organization yet to be completed before Melissa can truly take off. That being said, I’d be shocked if she’s not primed and ready to go by the morning.

[MarioProtVI]

Tilt is actually increasing on the latest pass. Probably won’t see a hurricane until tomorrow afternoon as as RI should start then. Still a lot of work needed to be done to the low level core.

[CrazyC83]

Tilt is actually increasing on the latest pass. Probably won’t see a hurricane until tomorrow afternoon as as RI should start then. Still a lot of work needed to be done to the low level core.

Agreed. I can't see it becoming more than a low-end category 1 in the near term as it still has a bit of shear to contend with. But it's getting closer...

[Blown Away]

I don’t think it would take much over the next 72 hours for the core of Melissa to slide just E of Jamaica. JMHO

[cheezyWXguy]

Tilt is actually increasing on the latest pass. Probably won’t see a hurricane until tomorrow afternoon as as RI should start then. Still a lot of work needed to be done to the low level core.

Yep, more work than I would have guessed earlier based on its appearance. Still, the fact that it managed to shed about 10mb today while getting its core together is rather impressive. Kind of reminds me of Ian before it took off when it was in the Caribbean. Delayed start, but more than made up for it, so people better not sleep on this thing.

[HurricaneBelle]

Surprised there isn't a Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. Guess it's a timing thing?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Oh boy, Jamaica. A prayer for them.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1981855179982139877

I'll also add that:

• A few more recent high-profile storms since Gilbert were originally expected to hit Jamaica but ultimately dodged it, most notably Ivan and Beryl. Even among weather fans in the US context, this has sometimes created the impression of a "Jamaica shield". I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened locally.
• As seen in the tweet, most major hurricanes passing close to Jamaica move east to west. But Melissa is now expected to move SW to NE, putting the strongest quadrant for winds and surge directly through the island.

Emily 2005 as well

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/ht7ukn6.png
Still needs to work on the structure

I was gonna say it doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of hours ago

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like Melissa found the "favorable" 10-knot wind shear pocket after days of being hit with 15-30 knots

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/ht7ukn6.png
Still needs to work on the structure

I was gonna say it doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of hours ago

The pressure gradient is also a lot broader too now.

Perhaps there was an initial attempt to form a tight core, but some shear disrupted it and now it’s just forming a larger core instead.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/268Weather/status/1981904613126136055

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/ht7ukn6.png
Still needs to work on the structure

I was gonna say it doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of hours ago

The pressure gradient is also a lot broader too now.

Perhaps there was an initial attempt to form a tight core, but some shear disrupted it and now it’s just forming a larger core instead.

This would make sense. It seems to have taken on a ccc type appearance for now and that persistent band to the southwest doesn’t seem to be getting absorbed so it’s likely competing for energy at the moment. Won’t see rapid intensification until it weakens.

[Hurricane2022]

It feels like I've been tracking this storm for many weeks, what a tiresome and BORING thing. May God help Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola, because only He knows where this mess is headed

[Hurricane2022]

Interesting, recon shows Melissa just south of 16N, at ~15.9°. If this goes more south than forecasted, the initial 165+ kt/890- mb HAFS A & B forecasts have higher chances of verifying I guess.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cheezyWXguy]

That southern band has weakened a bit and the western side of the cdo looks to be very gradually expanding again, suggesting the shear impacting it may be starting to decrease.

[TomballEd]

Am I mistaking the Tropical Tidbits recon map? Melissa looks like it is drifting SSW.

I could be wrong.

[869MB]

 https://x.com/268Weather/status/1981904613126136055

It may also be a little ironic that the Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series in 1988 as well. Some of the hurricane models are still depicting a disastrous Hurricane Mitch type of scenario for Jamaica. We shall see how this plays out.