NATL: MELISSA - Models

[Nimbus]

12z model run the ridge encroachment from the Gulf is different at just 12 hours between GFS and Euro.

12Z GFS run forecast 588 isobar is still back over the Yucatan.



12z Euro model run has the 588 isobar stretching further east out over Cuba.

[Pelicane]

The 18z model cycle shifted back east, with a cluster showing an eastern Jamaican landfall.

[aspen]

18z HAFS-A and B have landfalls on opposite sides of Jamaica.

HAFS-A gets further west and strikes the western tip of Jamaica as a 150 kt/916 mbar Cat 5.

HAFS-B turns to the north sooner and makes landfall on the eastern end as a weaker Cat 4.

Both models show a bit of a ragged structure and difficulty fully clearing out its eye, despite less signals of an EWRC compared to last model cycle. Perhaps Melissa will still be dealing with some undercutting mid-level shear for the rest of its time in the Caribbean.

[Ubuntwo]

18z HAFS-A and B have landfalls on opposite sides of Jamaica.

HAFS-A gets further west and strikes the western tip of Jamaica as a 150 kt/916 mbar Cat 5.

HAFS-B turns to the north sooner and makes landfall on the eastern end as a weaker Cat 4.

Both models show a bit of a ragged structure and difficulty fully clearing out its eye, despite less signals of an EWRC compared to last model cycle. Perhaps Melissa will still be dealing with some undercutting mid-level shear for the rest of its time in the Caribbean.

To this point, SHIPS has been showing shear of 10kt or just below around what should be peak intensity. Not enough to inhibit intensification, but it could place a ceiling on intensity since it's in the mid levels. SHIPS and hurricane models also show RH dropping steadily through the forecast period, this shouldn't be an inhibitor as the storm will likely have an established core by that point.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro is not nearly as strong as prior runs with 968 mb the strongest when 35 miles S of C Jamaica at hour 54. Then it landfalls at hour 72 at 982 before a sharp turn ENE to E tip at 992. That is a change in the heading from NE across the island on prior runs. Rainfall is still torrential in E Jamaica with 18” at Kingston.

[ElectricStorm]

0z hurricane models:
HWRF 110kts/947mb at Jamaica landfall, then another Cat 3 landfall for Cuba
HMON: 125kts/946mb peak shortly before Jamaica landfall, 93kts/961mb at Cuba landfall
HAFS-A: 139kts at peak, 932mb before Jamaica landfall as a high-end Cat 4, gets back up to 125kts at Cuba landfall
HAFS-B: 146kts/924 before Jamaica landfall, borderline Cat 3/4 Cuba landfall

HWRF is likely too low IMO. HAFS are both slower than the other two, leading to stronger peaks

[LarryWx]

0z hurricane models:
HWRF 110kts/947mb at Jamaica landfall, then another Cat 3 landfall for Cuba
HMON: 125kts/946mb peak shortly before Jamaica landfall, 93kts/961mb at Cuba landfall
HAFS-A: 139kts at peak, 932mb before Jamaica landfall as a high-end Cat 4, gets back up to 125kts at Cuba landfall
HAFS-B: 146kts/924 before Jamaica landfall, borderline Cat 3/4 Cuba landfall

HWRF is likely too low IMO. HAFS are both slower than the other two, leading to stronger peaks

Aren’t these peaks though still quite strong mainly significantly weaker than some earlier runs?

[ElectricStorm]

0z hurricane models:
HWRF: 110kts/947mb at Jamaica landfall, then another Cat 3 landfall for Cuba
HMON: 125kts/946mb peak shortly before Jamaica landfall, 93kts/961mb at Cuba landfall
HAFS-A: 139kts at peak, 932mb before Jamaica landfall as a high-end Cat 4, gets back up to 125kts at Cuba landfall
HAFS-B: 146kts/924 before Jamaica landfall, borderline Cat 3/4 Cuba landfall

HWRF is likely too low IMO. HAFS are both slower than the other two, leading to stronger peaks

Aren’t these peaks though still quite strong mainly significantly weaker than some earlier runs?

Compared to some of those nuclear HAFS runs from a couple days ago, certainly. But those were unrealistic to begin with. As for this cycle, all are slightly stronger than 18z except HAFS-A which now has landfall on the eastern side of Jamaica instead of west.

[ThomasW]

0z hurricane models:
HWRF 110kts/947mb at Jamaica landfall, then another Cat 3 landfall for Cuba
HMON: 125kts/946mb peak shortly before Jamaica landfall, 93kts/961mb at Cuba landfall
HAFS-A: 139kts at peak, 932mb before Jamaica landfall as a high-end Cat 4, gets back up to 125kts at Cuba landfall
HAFS-B: 146kts/924 before Jamaica landfall, borderline Cat 3/4 Cuba landfall

HWRF is likely too low IMO. HAFS are both slower than the other two, leading to stronger peaks

Don't discount the HWRF. Most models now show a Cat 2-Cat 3 peak prior to a landfall in around 36-48 hours. There's just not time for higher with persistent 15-20 knot shear, dry air from Jamaica and shallow water near the coast
Seen below

[Beef Stew]

0z hurricane models:
HWRF 110kts/947mb at Jamaica landfall, then another Cat 3 landfall for Cuba
HMON: 125kts/946mb peak shortly before Jamaica landfall, 93kts/961mb at Cuba landfall
HAFS-A: 139kts at peak, 932mb before Jamaica landfall as a high-end Cat 4, gets back up to 125kts at Cuba landfall
HAFS-B: 146kts/924 before Jamaica landfall, borderline Cat 3/4 Cuba landfall

HWRF is likely too low IMO. HAFS are both slower than the other two, leading to stronger peaks

Don't discount the HWRF. Most models now show a Cat 2-Cat 3 peak prior to a landfall in around 36-48 hours. There's just not time for higher with persistent 15-20 knot shear, dry air from Jamaica and shallow water near the coast
Seen below
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/981328327199559760/1431562638181007400/13L_intensity_latest.png?ex=68fdde1a&is=68fc8c9a&hm=0dbff48c13288129773a40bbb2a522c8822b2301eb21a3c309a5e02097ad94e7&

I’m sorry, but the part about there not being time for a stronger storm just simply isn’t true. Plenty of storms in recent years alone have intensified more with less time. There’s a reason the (traditionally conservative) NHC is explicitly forecasting a borderline category 5 peak for Melissa. Sure, that may or may not happen, but I’d certainly say the odds of that forecast verifying are higher than the odds of Melissa only intensifying to a category 2.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Both the 00z Euro and 06GFS pull the impossible and miss Jamacia and Cuba while navigating the Jamacia Channel and out the Windward Passage. Would need to rename Melissa, Houdini.

[jlauderdal]

Both the 00z Euro and 06GFS pull the impossible and miss Jamacia and Cuba while navigating the Jamacia Channel and out the Windward Passage. Would need to rename Melissa, Houdini.

Land interaction does strange things, Houdini things can and do happen, especially around Jamaica, as the terrain is stout in the midsection. Coffee beans and other crops were being picked early in preparation. There will be big losses.

[BobHarlem]

Both the 00z Euro and 06GFS pull the impossible and miss Jamacia and Cuba while navigating the Jamacia Channel and out the Windward Passage. Would need to rename Melissa, Houdini.

0z Euro has landfall in Kingston

0z deep mind spread:

0z euro ensembes:

6z gfs ensembles

[LarryWx]

Both the 00z Euro and 06GFS pull the impossible and miss Jamacia and Cuba while navigating the Jamacia Channel and out the Windward Passage. Would need to rename Melissa, Houdini.

0z Euro has landfall in Kingston
https://i.imgur.com/wZgxZJj.png
0z deep mind spread:
https://i.imgur.com/I6RpDuX.png
0z euro ensembes:
https://i.imgur.com/GMSQc5N.png

6Z Euro is very similar to the 0Z with strongest again at 968 S of C Jamaica, 988 near Kingston, and sharp right turn to E tip of Jamaica exiting at 992.

[BobHarlem]

6z Hurricane models vs Jamaica
HWRF (clips west tip, right front quad impacts the whole island)

HMON just before landfall

HAFS-A just before landfall

HAFS-B just before landfall

[Blown Away]

If Melissa’s core misses Jamaica to the east, which I think will happen, was the GFS closest to being correct all along being the persistent right outlier?

[Teban54]

If Melissa’s core misses Jamaica to the east, which I think will happen, was the GFS closest to being correct all along being the persistent right outlier?

I don't see any clear indication that Melissa will miss Jamaica to the east at this time (as the operational GFS remains just about the only model showing this outcome).

But even if that's the ultimate path, GFS would still have done terribly on Melissa. It's not just a matter of path, but also speed. GFS has insisted, for the longest time, that Melissa would almost not stall at all and lift north to Hispaniola after quick intensification in the Eastern/Central Caribbean.

[BobHarlem]

If Melissa’s core misses Jamaica to the east, which I think will happen, was the GFS closest to being correct all along being the persistent right outlier?

5 days ago, the GFS had it northeast of the DR right now. No way to say anything but the GFS handled it horribly. Euro was slightly north of where it was now. 6z GFS is still too far east.

[ronjon]

Pretty remarkable agreement by the hurricane models. Add the Euro operational and Google AI and there's solid consensus of a Jamaica hit. And the NHC agrees. As far as the GFS is concerned it has absolutely been the worst model (on par with the Canadian which was way west) with its far eastern solution. I still remember how far west GFS was with Helene in the FL panhandle when Euro and ICON had Steinhatchee on repeated model runs. The GFS needs some serious upgrades.

[BobHarlem]

12z Icon crawls along the Jamaica coast east to west, from here, isn't clear of the island until later Tuesday.