NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[galaxy401]

This appears to be an unprecedented hurricane in the making. A monster category 5 that will be crawling towards Jamaica. The closest analogy I can think of is the 1932 Cuba hurricane: Late season, very powerful storm that was crawling the Caribbean. Though that one missed Jamaica.

[Iceresistance]

That VHT has literally left behind a comma, that was one insane VHT


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nnI.png

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hard to think of a way this could come in at a worse angle too... worst of the storm and surge will be piling right into Kingston. 1.19 million people will be under the worst of a Category 5 hurricane that is crawling.

[Blown Away]

Hard to think of a way this could come in at a worse angle too... worst of the storm and surge will be piling right into Kingston. 1.19 million people will be under the worst of a Category 5 hurricane that is crawling.

Terrible, as close as Melissa is now, it’s literally 2-3 days from landfall!

[USTropics]

That VHT has literally left behind a comma, that was one insane VHT

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nnI.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3nnI.png

Yea it literally rotated upshear, so much energy was being transported it was creating radial mesoscale-gravity waves. Basically the vertical transport of momentum and heat becomes asymmetric, and these rapid changes radiate outward as concentric ripples/wave-like bands emanating from the storm core we see here as the sun goes down. This definitely has been rapidly intensifying:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is moving into lower altitude, so it wont be long before we know how much Melissa has strengthened.

[GCANE]

Minimal lightning associated with the hot towers

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone is beginning its move to the CoC

[aspen]

Not sure what NOAA2 is doing. They’re zig zagging across the southern coast of Jamaica. Perhaps they’ve been called for search and rescue?

Edit, nvm, looks like they’re heading in now.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/StormHQwx/status/1982207071488503867

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1982212411605090325

[ScottNAtlanta]

Check out the image at the end (shortwave IR) how it lights up

[TallyTracker]

The northeasterly flow over Jamaica’s mountains is already inducing rain. 3-4 more days or torrential rains followed by intense winds is nearly the worst case storm I can imagine. I’m thinking my 115 - 125 kts estimate of peak intensity in the poll is going to be very underdone.

[KirbyDude25]

Not sure what NOAA2 is doing. They’re zig zagging across the southern coast of Jamaica. Perhaps they’ve been called for search and rescue?

Edit, nvm, looks like they’re heading in now.

They were deploying a drone (both of today's NOAA flights with TDR did this)

[blp]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1982212411605090325

Yes and seems to be moving faster. Hopefull gets far enough west to limit impact on Jamaica even after NE turn.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The eye will bounce around significantly as the storm explosively intensifies.

[WaveBreaking]

The current set of VHTs is so tall that sunlight is still hitting them.

[Hurricane2022]

ERI may have started now. Recon already reporting 87 kt FL. The eye should appear soon.

[CrazyC83]

ERI may have started now. Recon already reporting 87 kt FL. The eye should appear soon.

That's in the back side of the storm too, although the slow motion likely reduces the differences between the quads. That would on its own support the current 80 kt intensity - and they haven't reached the eyewall yet.

[sasha_B]

ERI may have started now. Recon already reporting 87 kt FL. The eye should appear soon.

I'll wait for an extreme pressure drop between passes or visual cues like vigorous lightning surrounding the eyewall / eye clearing out on satellite imagery before I say "ERI", but that's mincing words....little doubt at this point that Melissa is intensifying fast. Just a question of how fast.