NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1982247180464209964

What also often happens is "stair-stepping": Pressure drops first, then wind catches up, then pressure drops again, etc.

[cheezyWXguy]

Haven’t had much chance to watch this thing since about 1pm. Wow what a dramatic change in strength and appearance. The leveling off in pressure is clearly temporary. I don’t think I’m gonna get much sleep tonight watching this evolve lol.

[Kazmit]

I've never seen these "jagged" features that are on the SW side of the CDO and inner bands. It's not "ragged" like a struggling system would be, but more like aggressive spikes of energy radiating outwards.

[Iceresistance]

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3n6E.png

[psyclone]

You can just tell this is an absolute beast in the making. Melissa...another M baddie...looks to be the bad one of the 25 season

[zzzh]

750mb FL 111kt! This would support 95-100kt

[crimi481]

If it goes more south and west, could the next front miss lifting it out to sea?

[CrazyC83]

750mb FL 111kt! This would support 95-100kt

If that was at 700, this would be a major. But even still I agree 95 kt is the best estimate for the intensity.

[zzzh]

Dropsonde supports 969mb.

[ljmac75]

Latest dropsonde has >100 kt winds down the whole profile

[CrazyC83]

Latest dropsonde has >100 kt winds down the whole profile

I saw it with 106 kt at the surface. I wonder if it is accurate? Or a bit overdone?

[Teban54]

Latest dropsonde has >100 kt winds down the whole profile

[Fancy1002]

Latest dropsonde has >100 kt winds down the whole profile

I saw it with 106 kt at the surface. I wonder if it is accurate? Or a bit overdone?

If it’s not accurate right now, it likely will be within an hour or so. Melissa is looking to be a hell of a monster over the next 24 hours unless an eye wall replacement cycle knocks her down, but even then I’m not sure how long that will be, especially if it goes through an eye wall meld instead.

[Travorum]

Latest dropsonde has >100 kt winds down the whole profile

https://i.postimg.cc/Gh1BhvXb/recon-NOAA2-1313A-MELISSA-dropsonde20-20251026-0152.png

From that N eyewall dropsonde the WL150 winds support 95kts just like the FL winds do. Melissa is knocking at the door of MH strength.

[zzzh]

700mb FL 115! Easily a MH.

[CrazyC83]

Combined with the SFMR, likely around 105 kt. Pressure looks to be way down this pass too, maybe 964 or so?

[Hurricane2022]

Habemus Major Hurricane Melissa. I'll wait for the next NHC advisory before going to bed...but as of now, I expect to wake up to an apocalyptic hurricane with winds of 140-160+ mph.

700mb FL 115! Easily a MH.

[Travorum]

115kt 700mb winds plus 108kt SFMR blends and rounds to 105kt and extrap pressure so far is down to 966mb with 20kts wind—we'll see if the next HDOB dump has a bit lower. Regardless I expect to see a MH at the 03z advisory.

Also an interesting note from the last VDM, I'm not sure if this has any implication on intensification as I've never seen it before:

EYEWALL APPEARS SQUARE ON RADAR SIGNATURE

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Jeez, Melissa will likely be approaching or at Cat 4 by sunrise at this rate.

[Blown Away]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
5pm
INIT 25/2100Z 16.6N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

Melissa not supposed to pass 76W until after 06z, my guess she’s pretty close now. I think W adjustments now will result in W adjustments near Jamaica… JMHO