EPAC: SONIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

EP, 92, 2025102306, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1080W, 15, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep922025.dat

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a sleeper system

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 23 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula have
become slightly better organized since yesterday. However, recent
satellite-derived wind data indicate that a well-defined surface
circulation has not yet formed. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the weekend while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

[cycloneye]

Looks like a sleeper system

Whay do you mean?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the surface
circulation associated with an area of low pressure located well
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has
become better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form later today or tonight while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 116.0W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Over the past few days, the area of low pressure that the National
Hurricane Center has been monitoring, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, has
gradually become better organized and has now acquired a
well-defined circulation center. Recent AMSR2 and SSMIS microwave
passes revealed developing curved bands (-70C cloud tops) to the
north and south of the depression's center. The Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0 (30 kt), and a fortuitous
METOP-B scatterometer overpass indicates maximum sustained winds of
25-30 kt. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Although the depression is expected to remain over warm SSTs, a
marginally favorable thermodynamic surrounding environment and
moderate west-southwesterly shear should hamper significant
development. Accordingly, gradual strengthening is expected during
the next 72 hours. After that time, the depression is expected to
traverse progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures and
commence a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast
closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA Corrected Consensus
intensity aids and shows the depression becoming a remnant low in 5
days.

The depression's initial motion is estimated to be westward or
270/11 kt. A west-to-east-oriented subtropical ridge located to
the north of the depression should steer the cyclone in a generally
westward or west-northwestward heading during the next 5 days. By
Saturday, however, the depression is forecast to slow in forward
speed in response to a slight weakening of the ridge while an
amplifying mid- to upper-level mid-latitude trough approaches the
southwest U.S. coast/Baja California offshore waters. Over the
remaining portion of the period, the depression is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low while continuing generally westward in
the low-level trade wind flow. The official track forecast lies
between the better-performing HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 13.2N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 13.3N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 13.5N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 13.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 13.8N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 14.6N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 15.4N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 15.2N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a sleeper system

Whay do you mean?

Could be stronger than advertised

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 116.6W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

The depression has changed little over the past several hours.
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown deep convection
periodically forming near the center, with a broad, loose band
wrapping around the northern side of the circulation. Subjective
Dvorak estimates remain at T2.0 and the initial intensity is held at
30 kt for this advisory.

During the next couple of days, environmental and oceanic conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual strengthening. The sea
surface temperatures should be between 27-26 deg C, with
light-to-moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level
humdities. Around 48 to 60 h, global models suggest the wind shear
should gradually increase, inducing a gradual weakening trend. By
the end of the forecast period, cooling ocean waters and
increasingly dry air are expected reduce and dissipate the deep,
organized convection. GFS and ECMWF are suggesting this may occur
sooner, and the official forecast now shows the depression becoming
a post-tropical cyclone by day 4.

The estimated motion of the depression is 270 degrees at 7 kt. A
subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should be the main
steering feature for the next 5 days, which will initially continue
its westward heading with a decreasing forward speed. By the end of
the weekend, an amplifying mid- to upper-level mid-latitude trough
should slightly weaken the ridge, causing the system to bend
west-northwestward. As the vortex becomes more shallow by the end
of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn back
westward in the low-level flow. The latest official forecast has
been nudged to the north, and lies between the HCCA and the previous
prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 13.2N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 13.3N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 13.4N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 13.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 13.8N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 14.4N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM SONIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 117.6W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Satellite imagery shows deep convection expanding over the low-level
circulation center, with cloud-top temperatures near −80 C.
Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
in agreement at 2.5/35 kt, which is supported by the latest UW–CIMSS
objective estimates. Based on the improving satellite presentation
and these data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Sonia, with the initial intensity set at 35 kt.

Sonia has a brief window of opportunity to gradually strengthen over
the weekend while it remains over warm waters and within a moist,
low-shear environment. Strengthening should level off by Monday as
southwesterly vertical wind shear begins to increase. By Tuesday, a
combination of stronger shear, drier mid- to upper-level air, and
cooler sea-surface temperatures should induce a gradual weakening
trend. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models supports
this scenario, depicting convection diminishing by midweek. As a
result, Sonia is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant
low by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast remains very similar to the
previous one and continues to closely follow the consensus aids.

The initial motion is toward the west, or 275/8 kt, along the
southern side of a subtropical ridge that is expected to persist
through the first half of the weekend. A turn toward the northwest
is anticipated for a brief period late Sunday into early next week
as a weakness develops in the ridge in response to a mid-latitude
trough passing over the northern Pacific. A turn back toward the
west is then expected by Tuesday and into midweek as the ridge
restrengthens to the north. By day 5, Sonia is forecast to become
increasingly influenced by the low-level trade wind flow, which
should steer it southwestward. The latest NHC track forecast remains
close to the previous advisory and lies between the HCCA and
Google DeepMind solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 13.3N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 13.4N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 13.4N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 13.6N 120.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 14.1N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 14.6N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 15.2N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 15.5N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 14.8N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sonia Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...SONIA CONTINUES STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD FAR FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 118.1W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES





Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Sonia appears to be strengthening this morning. While it has been
difficult to pinpoint Sonia's center, it appears to be well
embedded within the central dense overcast. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and various
objective intensity techniques from UW-CIMSS have also increased
with a mean value near 45 kt, so that is initial intensity for this
advisory.

Given the higher initial intensity, the intensity forecast for
Sonia has also increased a little, and now shows the cyclone could
approach hurricane strength tomorrow. Several models now show Sonia
becoming a hurricane late this weekend. The new NHC intensity
forecast is just below the model consensus, so an additional upward
adjustment could be necessary in the next advisory. Beyond 2 days,
Sonia is still expected to gradually weaken as a result of
increasing shear and drier mid-level air wrapping into its
circulation. Models still indicate that Sonia will lose its deep
convection by day 4, and it will likely degenerate into a trough by
the end of the forecast period.

Sonia has continued moving generally west. No substantial changes to
the official track forecast were made aside from a slight northward
tweak to account for the latest initial position of the tropical
storm. In general, the tropical storm should keep on its current
heading today, then slow and turn northwestward on Sunday. By the
middle of next week, Sonia should turn back westward as it weakens
and becomes steered by low-level flow. The spread in the model
guidance is unusually high, so uncertainty in the track is slightly
higher than normal, but the NHC forecast is still based on a blend
of HCCA and GDM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 13.5N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 13.6N 118.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 13.7N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 14.4N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 14.9N 122.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 15.2N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 15.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Poor Sonia that nobody is paying attention as Melissa dominates all the discussions and headlines. Not looking too bad.

[StormWeather]

Poor Sonia that nobody is paying attention as Melissa dominates all the discussions and headlines. Not looking too bad.

https://i.imgur.com/NP1lRHd.gif

Reminds me of poor ol’ Category 2 Hurricane Leslie getting next to no attention last year due to Hurricane Milton bombing out at the same time.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Sonia appears to have become better organized during the past
several hours. GMI microwave imagery valid near 18Z showed a
better-defined center in 37 GHz imagery. Satellite-based intensity
estimates range from near 45 kt to near 55 kt. ASCAT-C wind data
valid at 1701 UTC only captured a part of the circulation of Sonia
on the edge of the pass swath, but it did not show any winds of
tropical-storm force. Based on all these data, the intensity
estimate remains 45 kt for this advisory.

The aforementioned GMI data helped identify the center of Sonia, so
the initial position and movement of the tropical storm is higher
confidence now. However, there is still unusually large spread in
the track guidance. The models appear to be split over whether Sonia
will begin a short period of intensification in about a day, or not.
The stronger solutions, including the GFS and all of the hurricane
regional models, show Sonia gaining more latitude, while the weaker
ones, including the Google DeepMind and ECMWF, keep the cyclone
moving generally westward to west-northwestward. The NHC track
forecast already split these solutions, and no significant change
has been made for this advisory since there is no obvious reason to
discount either solution at this time.

Likewise, no change of note was made to the official intensity
forecast. Sonia could strengthen slightly over the weekend, since
its structure and organization appear to be improving and there are
no immediate significant inhibiting factors. However, by early next
week the cyclone will move into a drier environment and move toward
an upper-level low that will result in an increase in shear. This
should cause weakening, and all available dynamical guidance still
indicates Sonia will become post-tropical by day 4, regardless of
how strong it gets between now and then. The NHC intensity forecast
is now near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 13.5N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 13.6N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 13.7N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 14.1N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 14.7N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 15.0N 123.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 15.1N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 15.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Sonia seems to be holding steady this evening. Data from a
microwave satellite overpass showed the circulation was still open
to the west, with a curved band wrapped around the eastern and
southern portions of the storm. Convection has waned during the
past few hours and objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates have remained generally stable. The initial intensity is
held at 45 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving westward at 4 kt. There is still a large spread
in the model guidance through the forecast period. The forecast
reasoning has not changed. A steadily strengthening system is
expecting to turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The model
forecasts with shallower vortex structures tend to remain on a more
westward trajectory while the deeper cyclones tend to track more
poleward. The primary steering features influencing Sonia are a
subtropical ridge extending to the north of the tropical storm and
an amplifying mid-latitude trough that is expected to erode the
ridge in the coming days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar
to the previous prediction and lies south of the corrected consensus
aid and north of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Sonia has about a day or so to gradually strengthen before
atmospheric and oceanic conditions begin to significantly inhibit
intensification. After that time, vertical wind shear is expected
to increase, with sea surface temperatures decreasing, particularly
if Sonia takes a more northern path. The model guidance envelope
shifted noticeably lower this cycle, though only minimal changes
were made to the official intensity forecast. The latest prediction
lies near the top of the guidance, close to HAFS-A, peaking in about
36 hours, and then calls for Sonia to become a post-tropical cyclone
by day 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 13.5N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 13.5N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 13.8N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 14.2N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 14.7N 122.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/0000Z 14.8N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

After experiencing a late afternoon diurnal minimum in convection on
Saturday during which the structure of Sonia was rather disorganized
and the intensification of the tropical storm halted, deep
convection has returned over the center overnight, with a large area
of cloud tops colder than -70C. Light to moderate southerly shear
appears to be affecting the storm just a bit, with the low-level
center situated in the southern half of the convective area. The
latest subjective intensity estimates are T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and
T3.5/55 kt from SAB. The objective UW-CIMSS numbers have been
running in the 40-45 kt range, and the highest ASCAT vector on a
recent ASCAT pass was 41 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt
based on the above data.

Sonia is experiencing about 10-15 kt of southerly vertical wind
shear while over sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 27C. The
shear and SSTs should remain about the same for the next 12-24 h,
but southerly shear is forecast to increase further after that time
while SSTs begin to gradually decrease. By 60 hours, shear should
be stronger than 20 kt while SSTs fall below 26C. Melissa will also
reach a drier airmass after 60 h. The NHC forecast will show slight
strengthening over the next 24 h while Sonia remains over lukewarm
SSTs and moderate shear. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected,
and Melissa should lose its convection and become a remnant low by
day 3. The intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance
suite through the first 36 hours of the forecast, but shows a
slightly lower peak intensity compared to the previous NHC forecast.
The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products show the cyclone
losing its convection between 60-72 h, so the NHC forecast will call
for Sonia to become a remnant low by hour 72, and gradually
dissipate thereafter.

Sonia has been moving slightly south of due west (265 degrees) at a
slow forward speed of 4 kt. A weakness in a narrow subtropical
ridge to the north should cause Sonia to turn toward the
west-northwest later today, but still at a very slow forward speed,
because the steering currents overall are weak. By Tuesday, as the
cyclone weakens, a turn back toward the west with an increase in
forward speed is expected as Sonia is steered primarily by the low-
level flow. The latest NHC forecast is a tad slower than the
previous prediction and lies generally between the latest HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google Deep Mind Ensemble
Mean (GDMI).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 13.4N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 13.5N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 13.9N 120.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 14.7N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 14.8N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 14.9N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z 14.5N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Deep convection returned over the low-level center overnight, but
over the last several hours satellite imagery shows the convective
structure has become a little more broken. The low-level center is
likely situated on the southern end of the convective shield due to
southerly wind shear. The latest subjective satellite intensity
estimates were both data-T 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB. The objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 35 to 50 kt. Using
these estimates, the initial intensity will be held at 45 kt for
this advisory.

Sonia is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion of 280/03 kt.
The system seems to be gradually turning towards the west-northwest
towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge, with a continued slow
forward motion the next day or so. As the system begins to weaken
and become a more shallow vortex, the system should turn back toward
the west within the low-level wind flow at a sightly faster forward
speed. The latest NHC forecast is slightly near the previous and
lies between the corrected consensus HCCA and Google DeepMind
solutions.

The storm will continue to deal with moderate wind shear, but will
remain over warm sea surface temperatures for another day or so.
Thus, little change in intensity is forecast, with the potential for
some slight strengthening today. Beyond the 24-36 h time period, a
weakening trend is forecast due to an increase in wind shear, and
sea surface temperatures cooling along the forecast track. Water
vapor satellite imagery shows abundant dry air to the west of the
system and mid-level RH values drop into the 40 percent range in 2
to 3 days. The combination of dry air and shear should cause the
system to gradually lose convection, and become a remnant low by 60
hours. This forecast is in good agreement with the global model
simulated IR satellite solutions, and the latest NHC intensity
forecast follows these trends, with the remnant low dissipating by
the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 13.7N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 14.9N 123.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 15.1N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 14.2N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[Astromanía]

Oops not good

[Sciencerocks]