NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[Fancy1002]

I think it’s Miss piggy that is south of Cuba and heading towards Melissa. Hopefully it can get there at a good time.

[zzzh]

I think the plane won't catch the peak

[PavelGaborik10]

https://i.imgur.com/ihimXjF.png
I think the plane won't catch the peak

This storm is 40 hours away from landfall.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/ihimXjF.png
I think the plane won't catch the peak

I mean, a newer scan has this. The moat is much smaller

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3uA0.png

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/ihimXjF.png
I think the plane won't catch the peak

I mean, a newer scan has this. The moat is much smaller
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3uA0.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3uA0.png

I wonder if we may see an eyewall meld. HAFS runs have shown close concentric eyewalls similar to this that don’t trigger a full-blown EWRC.

Either way, recon should be close enough for us to extrapolate backwards if necessary.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Live stream from Jamaica...while it lasts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvhfvU6SWqc

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Melissa still looks almost as good as it has been in the past hour -- which is itself the best that it had ever looked all day, with the perfectly round CDO and almost a full CMG ring -- but the recent frames show slight degradation to the west. How much that's related to the mold discussed above is anyone's guess.

[WaveBreaking]

The CDO just started to rotate really quickly like it's vibrating. Hurricane Jova did the same thing when it was rapidly intensifying too.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is about 50 miles NW of Jamaica, so they might arrive to sample the peak

[ScottNAtlanta]

The CDO just started to rotate really quickly like it's vibrating. Hurricane Jova did the same thing when it was rapidly intensifying too.


https://i.imgur.com/FJGHaTM.gif

Its wild being able to see the eye actually contracting

[cheezyWXguy]

Those radar images suggest the outer eyewall is already very well formed and the moat is very narrow. Should be a smoother than average transition to the new eyewall, if not an outright meld, during the overnight hours. I wonder what intensity recon will find this at shortly.

[USTropics]

Recon is about 50 miles NW of Jamaica, so they might arrive to sample the peak

I honestly think we're looking at a Milton scenario here, recon should get there to sample this peak. If our hurricane models are correct, we're looking at another peak in ~36 hours, HAFS-A and HAFS-B modeled the pressure to get down to 910mb. The only variable that can prevent Melissa from reaching MPI is literally an internal structure change like an EWRC. We'll have to wait and see when that occurs and how it needs to recover after, but definitely a catastrophic scenario that is going to unfold on Tuesday in Jamaica.

[BobHarlem]

Long range radar loop (the short range one hasn't been updated in a few hours)

[zhukm29]

Looks like a perfectly circular donut... with still another day over the warmest waters of the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Recon is about 50 miles NW of Jamaica, so they might arrive to sample the peak

I honestly think we're looking at a Milton scenario here, recon should get there to sample this peak. If our hurricane models are correct, we're looking at another peak in ~36 hours, HAFS-A and HAFS-B modeled the pressure to get down to 910mb. The only variable that can prevent Melissa from reaching MPI is literally an internal structure change like an EWRC. We'll have to wait and see when that occurs and how it needs to recover after, but definitely a catastrophic scenario that is going to unfold on Tuesday in Jamaica.

Sadly no matter what about your last sentence.

[USTropics]

The one thing I am seeing right now, and you have to get a really good high-res longwave IR product going, is a slight degradation in the western inner core. Temperatures have been going up in the last ~90 minutes here in this quadrant:

[eastcoastFL]

Melissa is looking more and more impressive on radar every minute. Amazing

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The one thing I am seeing right now, and you have to get a really good high-res longwave IR product going, is a slight degradation in the western inner core. Temperatures have been going up in the last ~90 minutes here in this quadrant:

https://i.imgur.com/G1swuUp.gif

You can see quite a tongue of dry air intruding outside of the CDO. No idea if it's mixing in though. Might just be enough to keep it from going sub-920mb or something crazy tonight.