NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[michelinj]

Based off that latest pass, the hints of a double wind max seem to have all but gone (slight one in the SE perhaps) so whatever eyewall process happened should be done or almost done. Will be interesting to see how satellite changes. I have to say she has a long way to go for cat 5 wind speed wise…

Devastating for Jamaica regardless of course

[AtlanticWind]

I'm still concerned about that trough catching Melissa and pulling it NE. If it doesn't, we have a huge problem!

What exactly are you referring to?

As I understand it, there is a trough coming through to the north that will pull Melissa north, up through Jamaica, eastern Cuba and
then the Bahamas and that should happen in about 36 hours our so from now. If Melissa continues south and then to the west, it might
not be able to get the pull they are all talking about. I'm just a weather nerd but I get concerned when we have this kind of storm
moving towards the gulf.

There is really no concern that a slight dip SW will make any difference in
The turn to the N and NE that will occur tomorrow

[IsabelaWeather]

There's definitely a notable wobble to the SW, the latest VDM fixed Melissa at 16.3N when the official track never drops below 16.4N. Obviously its very difficult to predict future trochoidal wobbles but this SW motion is significant and persistent enough that you have to wonder if it will have long term impacts on the future track.

NHC specifically said in one of their discussions that a SW movement was probable, but opted to show a due west movement because the SW movement wouldnt likely be sustained.

I'm still concerned about that trough catching Melissa and pulling it NE. If it doesn't, we have a huge problem!

Im not sure what youre worried about, there is pretty much zero threat to the CONUS. Even if it somehow hit, it would only be extreme south florida, but again, that is almost assured to not happen. It also wouldnt be the storm we have now, its almost november, the CONUS threat is pretty much closed. And any storm would be sheared like crazy.

[aspen]

This is the most Cat 5-looking non-Cat 5 I’ve ever seen lol. You’d think it’s like 10 mb deeper than it actually is. Really curious as to why it exhibits the classic Cat 5 structural hallmarks despite falling short in actual intensity. This could also have implications for some of the upper-end Cat 4s with speculated Cat 5 status.

It makes sense here - this is the Caribbean in late season. Dvorak is overreliant on convective depth, so a high tropopause can cause overestimates in intensity. Eta's a great extreme example. This is the same reason open Atlantic 130kt+ systems (Sam, Fiona, Jose, Kirk etc) struggle so hard to hit T7.0. I think we've come to recognize here that eye warmth, roundness, and stability plus CDO smoothness are better indicators of extreme intensity. Melissa did briefly have a near-perfect eye, but its CDO has yet to transition past the bursting phase, at least consistently.

CDO temperature isn’t the main thing sticking out to me about Melissa, though. For a few hours it had among the most symmetrical and robust CDOs I’ve seen in the Atlantic, comparable to or even a little better than Sam. Even if you were to try and correct the cloud temperatures to something from outside the Caribbean, you’d probably still have a W ring on Dvorak (again, like Sam). ~20C eye temps also put it among the Atlantic’s best in recent years.

I agree with you about the CDO bursting/inconsistency, though I’m curious as to why it’s remained even as the system matures and deepens. It may also indicate that some of the Cat 4 EPac systems which have been suspected to be 130-140 kt — Douglas, Darby, Dora, Gilma, etc — may have also been a tad weaker than our typical assessments of eye temperature and CDO smoothness have suggested. Or maybe this is just a weird outlier lol.

[Teban54]

Is there something with Melissa's eye that makes the NOAA aircraft keep missing it, or is it just a streak of bad luck? This time, extrapolated pressure bottomed out at 934.0 mb with 39 kt FL winds. I don't even know if they did an eye drop at all; current data looks like they have skipped it.

Peak FL winds of 124 kt in both SE and NW quads remain unimpressive relative to the appearance, though not atypical of storms that just went through an EWRC (or similar).

Regardless, Melissa still found a way to look more impressive on IR. Whether that translates to intensification is anyone's guess.

[Hurricane Mike]

What a monster. Looks like it might do an ERC in the next 12 hrs or so. Not good, because then the wind field will expand further.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop 938/28, supports 935mb so rose slightly from last pass

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eye drop 938/28, supports 935mb so rose slightly from last pass

That would translate down to 935, so more or less steady. The other 2 passes were 937/936 but they missed a little both times

[Teban54]

Eye is contracting again, down to 12nm (from the 15nm on the previous pass just after the presumed eyewall meld):

F. CLOSED
G. C12

[cycloneye]

Let's see if the next overnight mission has winds up and the pressure down. Air Force plane departs at 11:15 PM EDT.

[Ptarmigan]

Is there something with Melissa's eye that makes the NOAA aircraft keep missing it, or is it just a streak of bad luck? This time, extrapolated pressure bottomed out at 934.0 mb with 39 kt FL winds. I don't even know if they did an eye drop at all; current data looks like they have skipped it.

Peak FL winds of 124 kt in both SE and NW quads remain unimpressive relative to the appearance, though not atypical of storms that just went through an EWRC (or similar).

Regardless, Melissa still found a way to look more impressive on IR. Whether that translates to intensification is anyone's guess.

https://i.imgur.com/8My44S5.gif

That is one scary hurricane.

[cheezyWXguy]

I still think the reason why Melissa is exhibiting a bursting cdo is because the eyewall cycle isn’t fully completed yet. The double wind maximum is still there, but it’s not where I think many of you are looking for it in the recon data. Remember from earlier, on Jamaica radar we saw that the outer eyewall is not much larger than the inner, and the moat between them is very narrow. Therefore when looking at the graph of FL winds, you it won’t be at the “base of the mountain” so to speak, it will be at the peak. Note the double peak you see on FL winds at 00:34z and just after 01:34z:

[Hurricane2022]

HELL HOW this is NOT a C5???

[cycloneye]

HELL HOW this is NOT a C5???
https://i.imgur.com/WbtIV0v.png

We will find out in the overnight hours when AF plane makes the passes, but one thing that will help her will be the DMAX period.

[Hurricane2022]

Oh

[cheezyWXguy]

HELL HOW this is NOT a C5???
https://i.imgur.com/WbtIV0v.png

We will find out in the overnight hours when AF plane makes the passes, but one thing that will help her will be the DMAX period.

The ring of -80c cloud tops is now almost fully complete. If this trend continues and there are still no signs of intensification by the time the next recon pass is made, my theory goes out the window. I do think we will see a stronger storm by then though.

[sasha_B]

ADT instantaneous estimate just jumped to T7.8 - that's the highest that's been seen in the Atlantic since Milton. Final ADT CI is now 7.3. Lightning is rotating around the eyewall and the cloud tops in the CDO are rapidly cooling. I concur with the sentiments being expressed by many others here (and, incidentally, mentioned in the NHC's 03z discussion) - Hurricane Melissa's satellite appearance would "suggest a higher intensity than found by the aircraft thus far."

[mrbagyo]

This latest CDO burst expansion appears to be the most symmetrical so far.

[LarryWx]

HELL HOW this is NOT a C5???
https://i.imgur.com/WbtIV0v.png

Hopefully, of course, it never gets to cat 5 as Jamaica can use any little bit of help it can get!

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1982640785553043803

 https://x.com/weatherffolkes/status/1982639783030698217